https://www.scmp.com/rss/512059/feed Russian forces invaded Ukraine in late February 2022, turning Moscow into a global pariah in the worlds of finance, diplomacy, sports and culture, as the West punished it with sanctions. President Vladimir Putin called Russia’s actions - which have triggered the worst refugee crisis in Europe since World War II - a “special military operation”. Nuclear-armed Russia has warned of consequences if Nato interferes in Ukraine, while strategic ally China urges a peaceful, diplomatic solution. en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com Wenran Jiang Wenran Jiang The bombs falling on Iran have extinguished any remaining doubt. The US-Israeli military campaign has ignited a major regional war. This explosion of violence is the ultimate rebuke to a central promise of US President Donald Trump’s second term: that America could disengage from distant quagmires to focus on confronting China. Over a year into this administration, the strategic picture affirms the conclusion I reached last summer: America’s hoped-for single-minded containment of China lies in... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3345177/china-waits-and-watches-us-fights-all-its-tigers-once?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3345177/china-waits-and-watches-us-fights-all-its-tigers-once?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 05 Mar 2026 01:30:09 +0000 Gabriela Bernal Gabriela Bernal The latest Doha Forum laid bare an uncomfortable truth: Europe is losing its seat at the table of global affairs. The convergence of the Trump administration’s newly released national security strategy and pointed remarks from senior US officials has exposed the continent’s precarious position in a rapidly transforming landscape – one where Europe increasingly finds itself relegated to the sidelines. At the forum, the message from US ambassador to Nato Matthew Whitaker was blunt and unequivocal:... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3335951/doha-forum-made-clear-europe-losing-its-seat-table?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3335951/doha-forum-made-clear-europe-losing-its-seat-table?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 16 Dec 2025 21:30:09 +0000 Zhou Bo Zhou Bo The Alaska summit between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin was a test balloon for Trump to find out, as he said, what Putin had in mind. The subsequent meeting in the White House between Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European leaders was another test balloon – for Europe – to find out what Trump had in mind. Both were useful yet not really productive. To start with, Putin has emerged as a clear winner. The red-carpet welcome on American soil with... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3322399/new-european-security-landscape-emerging-after-alaska-summit?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3322399/new-european-security-landscape-emerging-after-alaska-summit?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 20 Aug 2025 12:30:07 +0000 Wenran Jiang Wenran Jiang Half a year into Donald Trump’s second US presidency, a stark reality confronts Washington: the grand vision of an unprecedented focus on countering China, heralded by his strategists and supporters, has faltered. The fundamental premise that America could dramatically disengage from Europe and the Middle East, freeing up resources for a singular containment strategy against Beijing, has collided against a resistant world. Instead of pivoting to pursue China, Trump finds himself owning the very... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3319885/how-trumps-vision-single-minded-china-containment-has-failed?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3319885/how-trumps-vision-single-minded-china-containment-has-failed?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 30 Jul 2025 21:30:08 +0000 Richard Heydarian Richard Heydarian Just four months ago, US President Donald Trump was lecturing a surprised Volodymyr Zelensky on how the Ukrainian leader was “not winning” because he did not “have the cards”. As commander-in-chief of a superpower, Trump unabashedly brandished his geopolitical capital – apparently more interested in negotiating agreements with traditional US rivals such as Russia and Iran to bolster his “art of the deal” credentials. Today, the strategic picture looks dramatically different. Following the... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3314829/if-trump-has-all-cards-why-us-such-strategic-quagmire?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3314829/if-trump-has-all-cards-why-us-such-strategic-quagmire?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 19 Jun 2025 21:30:07 +0000 Is humanity entering a down cycle of calamity? Some prominent futurists think so. Certainly the news headlines are not encouraging. The Middle East is going up in flames. The European continent is caught in the most consequential military conflict since the end of World War II. The Doomsday Clock, set up during the height of the Cold War to gauge the danger of nuclear war, has never been so close to midnight. The COP29 climate summit, billed by some as our last chance to save the planet, has... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/article/3293746/blip-our-way-better-21st-century-or-end-road-humanity?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/article/3293746/blip-our-way-better-21st-century-or-end-road-humanity?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 07 Jan 2025 13:00:14 +0000 History is mostly made up of the mundane but remembered for the remarkable. For historians of Chinese diplomacy, China’s success in restoring diplomatic ties between arch-rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia might well be remembered as a turning point. The signing of the Beijing Declaration for unity by 14 Palestinian factions should have raised eyebrows further – in a most volatile region, China has succeeded in herding the cats, at least for a while. Can China build on these to become a global... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3273570/ukraine-and-gaza-chinas-great-power-comes-great-responsibility?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3273570/ukraine-and-gaza-chinas-great-power-comes-great-responsibility?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 08 Aug 2024 21:30:10 +0000 On Saturday, the US House of Representatives passed a US$95 billion foreign aid package that includes military support for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. The bill has since been approved by the Senate and presidential approval awaits. Having been stalled for months due to Congressional infighting driven by the opposition of a pro-Trump faction of Republicans, things are now moving quickly. This list of recipients offers a succinct summary of stretched US foreign policy commitments. Wars in Ukraine... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3260068/china-india-must-be-ready-seize-peace-ukraine-not-just-west?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3260068/china-india-must-be-ready-seize-peace-ukraine-not-just-west?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 24 Apr 2024 12:30:09 +0000 The European Union has struggled to be seen as an independent player amid big power rivalry, not least because of its partnership with the US-dominated Nato. French President Emmanuel Macron, a champion for strategic autonomy, sparked controversy last year when he declared that being an US ally did not mean being a “follower” or a “vassal”. Now, Macron has raised the possibility of a “strategic surge” of Western troops in Ukraine to repel the Russian invasion, urging Ukraine’s allies not to be... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/world/article/3255593/macron-pushing-eu-rethink-nato-leadership-ukraine-war?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/world/article/3255593/macron-pushing-eu-rethink-nato-leadership-ukraine-war?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 19 Mar 2024 01:30:12 +0000 For anyone with a stake in the remains of the geopolitical and economic order established and enforced by Washington and its allies, the US$450 million rulings against Donald Trump in New York state are a problem. They have pushed the former president’s declaration that any Nato ally not spending enough on defence should be attacked by Russia almost entirely out of the news cycle. Only in the vortex of controversy that constantly surrounds Trump can a statement that portends the possible end of... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/united-states/article/3252385/can-us-republicans-stop-partys-authoritarian-drift-under-trump?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/united-states/article/3252385/can-us-republicans-stop-partys-authoritarian-drift-under-trump?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 19 Feb 2024 21:30:14 +0000 The geopolitical landscape has changed significantly since the meeting of Nato defence ministers in October 2023. With global attention and military aid shifting towards the conflict in the Middle East, Ukraine has arguably lost its priority status in the eyes of the Western world. Nato’s attempts to isolate Russia through sanctions have failed to bring a just resolution to the war. Last October, the International Monetary Fund lowered its gross domestic product forecast for Russia to 1.1 per... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/world/article/3252443/stronger-europe-should-not-be-built-fear-russia?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/world/article/3252443/stronger-europe-should-not-be-built-fear-russia?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 19 Feb 2024 11:30:17 +0000 Given Donald Trump’s latest repugnant remarks criticising Nato last weekend, it’s safe to say that the former US president is no longer just a threat to American democracy but also to peace on the European continent. We’ve heard the anti-Nato rhetoric before. Ever since joining the campaign trail in 2015, Trump has displayed notorious disdain for the transatlantic alliance. So much so that his foreign policy “vision” then and now has been based on its obsolescence and the falsehood that... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/world/article/3252027/trumps-nato-rant-shows-him-threat-europes-security?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/world/article/3252027/trumps-nato-rant-shows-him-threat-europes-security?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 16 Feb 2024 08:30:13 +0000 US President Joe Biden is trailing Donald Trump in the polls. The key to election victory in the US has traditionally been the economy, but in the eyes of too many Americans, Biden is neglecting the domestic situation for the global stage – with a possibly devastating impact on the US and the international order. Last week, Biden welcomed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to Washington in an effort to provide further support for Kyiv. A year ago, on his last visit, Zelensky received a... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3245328/biden-desperate-beat-trump-2024-its-still-economy-stupid?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3245328/biden-desperate-beat-trump-2024-its-still-economy-stupid?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 18 Dec 2023 11:30:14 +0000 The images and news coming out of Gaza are so horrific I cannot think of anything hopeful or constructive that can come of this cataclysm. It feels like a balance has been lost between the West and rest. What is the West? It is a world that essentially comprises the US-led North America, Europe and Australasia, including Japan. It accounts for 63 per cent of the world economy, three-quarters of world trade, over half of global energy consumption and 18 per cent of the world population, if we use... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3240143/ukraine-and-gaza-wars-have-put-west-dock-public-opinion?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3240143/ukraine-and-gaza-wars-have-put-west-dock-public-opinion?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 03 Nov 2023 12:30:08 +0000 Russia’s war of attrition has thwarted Ukraine’s summer offensive, rendering its objectives unsuccessful, such as penetrating Russia’s land bridge and reclaiming much of its lost territory. This much-hyped and heavily funded offensive has resulted in minimal gains for Ukraine, and as autumn takes hold, a stalemate ensues. The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are determined to continue fighting the Russians, but everything else – from training, arming, strategising and logistics, which are the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/article/3236823/ukraine-war-why-summer-offensive-failing?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/article/3236823/ukraine-war-why-summer-offensive-failing?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 06 Oct 2023 21:30:16 +0000 Ask a war buff about blitzkrieg, or lightning war, and you won’t be able to shut him up. There are few living souls writing today in the English language who can claim greater authority on the subject than John Mearsheimer, one of the world’s most famous political scientists and when it comes to the war in Ukraine, also among the most controversial. It’s not surprising, then, that in his latest lengthy take titled, “Bound to Lose: Ukraine’s 2023 Counteroffensive”, published in Substack, the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3234134/why-ukrainian-blitzkrieg-tanked-latest-counteroffensive?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3234134/why-ukrainian-blitzkrieg-tanked-latest-counteroffensive?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 11 Sep 2023 13:00:11 +0000 In the autumn of 1949, two months after Mao Zedong formed the People’s Republic of China, he made his first major overseas visit, to Russia. Arriving in Moscow, Mao expected a warm welcome as a fellow communist leader, equal to his host, Joseph Stalin. That was not to be. The two wary communists viewed each other with suspicion. Stalin had originally backed Chiang Kai-shek; then, when the nationalists began losing, he switched to support Mao. Although Stalin saw Mao as weak, he also viewed him... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3228716/xi-should-use-his-sway-over-putin-push-him-negotiating-table-ukraine?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3228716/xi-should-use-his-sway-over-putin-push-him-negotiating-table-ukraine?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 25 Jul 2023 19:30:15 +0000 Ukraine is embroiled in a war of attrition against its Russian invaders that is reminiscent of the first world war. For the summer campaign, while Ukraine sent its soldiers to Nato countries for training, Moscow dug down, literally – constructing old-fashioned trenches and fortifications. In a war of attrition, the most important factors are the numbers of soldiers and artillery. Right now, the ratio of Ukraine’s artillery to Russia’s is calculated as anything between 1:10 and 1:3, depending on... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3228472/ukraines-war-attrition-can-kyiv-depend-west-supply-arms?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3228472/ukraines-war-attrition-can-kyiv-depend-west-supply-arms?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 24 Jul 2023 00:53:24 +0000 China can cement its rise as the pre-eminent power in Northeast Asia by brokering a long-awaited peace on the Korean peninsula. This is a project Beijing should undertake in close cooperation with Seoul and would mean ridding the peninsula of all nuclear weapons, promoting economic prosperity for both Koreas, and paving the way for the removal of all US troops. To achieve this, three conditions have to be met. First, China must stop being adversarial and instead pursue a foreign policy focused... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3225063/china-brokered-peace-deal-korean-peninsula-would-be-victory-everyone?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3225063/china-brokered-peace-deal-korean-peninsula-would-be-victory-everyone?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 25 Jun 2023 19:30:17 +0000 As world leaders fly around the world discussing whether or how to bring Russia’s war on Ukraine to an end, a World Bank report has brought us abruptly down to earth. It estimates that it will cost at least US$411 billion to rebuild the country – over twice the size of Ukraine’s war-damaged economy, 12 times more than its reserves and, for perspective, roughly equivalent to Hong Kong’s entire gross domestic product. The Ukraine Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment report, a collaboration between... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3216408/cost-war-ukraines-reconstruction-bill-huge-world-can-afford-it?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3216408/cost-war-ukraines-reconstruction-bill-huge-world-can-afford-it?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 09 Apr 2023 17:00:16 +0000 War is always a tragedy. Unfortunately, the war in Ukraine shows no signs of winding down. On the contrary, it is stuck in an escalatory spiral. Nato is supplying Ukraine with increasingly powerful weapons, including tanks, and Russia is not idly waiting for a Ukrainian offensive. Against this backdrop, the sole remaining neutral superpower entered as peacemaker. China offered an “off-ramp” in its peace proposal, and President Xi Jinping reiterated some of the points in his op-ed in Rossiyskaya... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3214297/ukraine-war-why-chinas-peace-road-map-only-one-table?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3214297/ukraine-war-why-chinas-peace-road-map-only-one-table?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 23 Mar 2023 00:15:17 +0000 While in office, US secretary of state Madeleine Albright referred to America as an “indispensable nation”, a statement that is still true. Last century, America ensured that Adolf Hitler’s totalitarian barbarism did not turn Europe into a dark place. This century, the United States – and Nato – has been the last line of defence against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s imperialist fantasies, and the primary reason a sovereign Ukraine still exists. US President Joe Biden has enforced his red... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3214199/what-if-america-under-trump-or-desantis-turns-its-back-ukraine-war?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3214199/what-if-america-under-trump-or-desantis-turns-its-back-ukraine-war?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 22 Mar 2023 19:30:13 +0000 A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Forum is a 1962 Stephen Sondheim Broadway musical based on a Roman farce by Plautus (254–184 BC), that became a 1966 musical film. It’s about Roman slave Pseudolus who tried to win his freedom by persuading his owner Hero to win the heart of Philia next door, who is promised to soldier Miles Gloriosus. The show became a success when Sondheim changed the opening song, Love is in the Air, to Comedy Tonight, showing how romance is better sold as comedy. The... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3212955/why-global-south-are-falling-out-love-west-and-liberal-order?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3212955/why-global-south-are-falling-out-love-west-and-liberal-order?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 10 Mar 2023 19:30:11 +0000 As the well-known adage goes, the first casualty of war is the truth. Today, amid contesting narratives over the war in Ukraine, the observation is as true as ever: Russia’s narrative is fantastical, Nato’s is partial and unrealistic – and sceptical observers from the Global South have a different set of priorities. On display is an awkward and unsettling “the West vs the rest” development. As Western allies grouped around Nato converge on a consensus that Russia must be crushed in a titanic... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3212366/west-vs-rest-ukraine-war-rift-grows-peace-must-be-priority?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3212366/west-vs-rest-ukraine-war-rift-grows-peace-must-be-priority?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 05 Mar 2023 13:30:10 +0000 One year on from the start of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, the pain and suffering mounts. The US’ most senior general estimates that Ukraine has seen in excess of 100,000 soldiers killed and injured, while US and European officials suggest Russia may have suffered close to 200,000 dead or wounded. A staggering eight million refugees are dispersed across Europe, a number not seen since World War II. Many Ukrainian cities and towns lie in ruin, with the eventual rebuilding cost at least US$349... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3211595/ukraine-war-time-china-use-its-influence-putin-create-room-peace?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3211595/ukraine-war-time-china-use-its-influence-putin-create-room-peace?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 28 Feb 2023 17:00:09 +0000 Russian mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin said forces of his Wagner group had captured the village of Yahidne, just north of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine on Saturday. Reuters could not independently confirm the claim, which Prigozhin made in a short audio message. “At 1900 on 25th February, storm units of the Wagner private military company secured complete control of the locality of Yagodnoye (Yahidne) to the north of Bakhmut,” Prigozhin said in the clip. A day earlier, he said Wagner had taken... https://www.scmp.com/news/world/russia-central-asia/article/3211559/wagner-fighters-capture-ukrainian-village-near-bakhmut-claims-russian-mercenary-leader?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/world/russia-central-asia/article/3211559/wagner-fighters-capture-ukrainian-village-near-bakhmut-claims-russian-mercenary-leader?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 25 Feb 2023 17:48:18 +0000 Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, launched a year ago on February 24, left me shocked, appalled and determined to stand up for the principles of sovereignty and self-determination. I studied in Ukraine as a young man, and have a deep and abiding connection with the Ukrainian people. They have impressed the world with their resilience and determination to defend their country. The strength of their resistance shows the depth of their commitment to liberty, dignity and justice. Ukraine’s fight is not... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3210611/year-nations-must-stand-united-against-russias-invasion-ukraine?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3210611/year-nations-must-stand-united-against-russias-invasion-ukraine?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 20 Feb 2023 19:30:08 +0000 I hate to start the new year with armed conflicts but it has been close to a year since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. If one considers the Russian annexation of Crimea in February 2014 as the beginning of the Russo-Ukrainian War, then the conflict has been ongoing for close to eight years. Following the profligate virtue signalling immediately after the invasion last year, many in our part of the world are now only vaguely aware that the fighting is still... https://www.scmp.com/magazines/post-magazine/short-reads/article/3205954/if-russia-ukraine-conflict-seems-long-already-consider-chinas-longest-war-lasted-nearly-300-years?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/magazines/post-magazine/short-reads/article/3205954/if-russia-ukraine-conflict-seems-long-already-consider-chinas-longest-war-lasted-nearly-300-years?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 08 Jan 2023 23:45:09 +0000 Is it too early to predict that 2022 was the beginning of the end of the democratic recession that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken keeps warning us about? Was it the year that autocracy began to collapse under its own weight? The most obvious indicator is Russian President Vladimir’s Putin’s vastly diminished position following setbacks in Ukraine. Instead of swallowing Ukraine, he’s made the world wonder why Russia was granted a higher geopolitical stature than its economy would justify... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3205307/2022-brought-western-democracies-together-internal-divides-remain?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3205307/2022-brought-western-democracies-together-internal-divides-remain?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 02 Jan 2023 19:30:09 +0000 The New Year is meant to signify a time of change and hope for better times ahead. 2023 will be full of challenges for world policymakers, facing the spectre of global recession, coping with tighter monetary conditions and dealing with higher inflation. Perhaps the greatest challenge of all in the short term is how to bring the war in Ukraine to a peaceful end. It will be a tough task but imperative as the war has wreaked so much damage, not just in terms of the devastating human cost, but also... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3205288/peace-ukraine-would-give-financial-markets-boost-they-need-2023?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3205288/peace-ukraine-would-give-financial-markets-boost-they-need-2023?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 02 Jan 2023 14:00:10 +0000 On December 14, the United Nations adopted a resolution to remove Iran from the UN Commission on the Status of Women, the first time a state has been expelled from the body. The passing of this US-drafted resolution was described by US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan as “another sign of the growing international consensus on Iran”. Although “consensus” is perhaps an overstatement – there were eight votes against the resolution, including from Russia and China, and 16 abstentions,... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3204917/after-uniting-against-russia-west-applying-same-approach-iran?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3204917/after-uniting-against-russia-west-applying-same-approach-iran?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 30 Dec 2022 18:30:09 +0000 The Group of 20 summit last month gave the world contrasting images of its two leading autocratic powers. Russian President Vladimir Putin was not even present, and his foreign minister left early after sitting through a speech by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who was specially invited. But at the same event, leaders from around the world met bilaterally with President Xi Jinping, even walking across the stage to him as if he were hosting the event in China. China’s weight in the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3202213/us-china-decoupling-beijing-has-options-beyond-russia-navigating-geopolitics-technology?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3202213/us-china-decoupling-beijing-has-options-beyond-russia-navigating-geopolitics-technology?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 08 Dec 2022 17:00:15 +0000 As protests erupt in China, Iran, Brazil and Europe, social scientists will have a field day dissecting why. The proximate causes appear to be discontent with the pandemic, loss of jobs and income, high inflation, and authorities’ mishandling of these situations. But there are deeper issues regarding how the managing elites continue to misread what the masses feel after years of neglect. The economist/psychologist Daniel Kahneman asked: why are we blind to our blindness? That can be attributed... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3201649/global-protests-are-result-years-neglect-deluded-elite-remain-blind-realities?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3201649/global-protests-are-result-years-neglect-deluded-elite-remain-blind-realities?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 02 Dec 2022 17:30:11 +0000 If the leaders of China and the United States keep talking, it will be positive for relations currently stalled at a critical juncture. There are just two weeks for the two sides to agree on a meeting between Xi Jinping and Joe Biden on neutral ground – the sidelines of a Group of 20 summit in Bali. Until recently that prospect seemed problematic, amid worsening tensions over China’s stance on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, anger over US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan and a... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3198067/surge-china-us-diplomatic-activity-welcomed-world?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3198067/surge-china-us-diplomatic-activity-welcomed-world?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 01 Nov 2022 21:24:03 +0000 As the Ukraine war drags on, I am reminded of the late Yale University professor Nicholas Spykman’s assertion that “whoever rules the Rimland commands Eurasia, and whoever rules Eurasia controls the destinies of the world”. Zbigniew Brzezinski’s 1997 article “A Geostrategy for Eurasia” is also essential reading for anyone wanting to understand US policy on Europe. The former US national security adviser noted that “Eurasia accounts for 75 per cent of the world’s population, 60 per cent of its... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3196515/ukraine-war-emotional-europe-playing-right-us-hands?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3196515/ukraine-war-emotional-europe-playing-right-us-hands?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 21 Oct 2022 17:30:19 +0000 North Korea has fired a nuclear-capable missile across Japan for the first time in five years in the latest escalation of regional tension with South Korea, the United States and Japan. It came as South Korea unveiled a similar missile, raising fears of an Asian arms race; and as Seoul, Tokyo and Washington have been ramping up joint naval exercises including anti-submarine drills. These operations infuriate Pyongyang, which sees them as invasion rehearsals. But the rogue nuclear state’s... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3195085/diplomacy-only-way-defuse-missiles-escalation-north-korea?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3195085/diplomacy-only-way-defuse-missiles-escalation-north-korea?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 06 Oct 2022 14:15:07 +0000 Central banks have the bit between their teeth to take down inflation. Later this week, the US Federal Reserve looks set to announce another steep 0.75 percentage-point interest rate rise, the same as at the past two monetary policy meetings, in June and July. Clearly, the Fed favours shock therapy to contain inflation and, in doing so, risks a harder landing for the US economy. The Fed is not alone, as the European Central Bank and Bank of England both appear to be following suit with tougher... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3192957/us-federal-reserve-and-other-central-banks-must-be-proactive?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3192957/us-federal-reserve-and-other-central-banks-must-be-proactive?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 19 Sep 2022 17:30:09 +0000 Nancy Pelosi may have attracted all the attention. But flying under the radar, fellow Democrat Bob Menendez may be the more dangerous. The senator from New Jersey is co-sponsoring a bill, known as the Taiwan Policy Act of 2022. If passed, it will effectively force the United States government to gut the one-China policy. Since Menendez is the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, this possibility cannot be entirely discarded in the current political climate. Writing in The New York... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3187620/democrat-more-dangerous-nancy-pelosi?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3187620/democrat-more-dangerous-nancy-pelosi?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 03 Aug 2022 15:16:22 +0000 Journalists get a bad press these days, and it often leads to cheap shots and vulgar insults. I’ve been called a sanctimonious windbag, a dirt-digging low life and a washed up, sad old hack – and that’s just by my wife and children. I cannot argue with them. I’m a disreputable relic of a dishonourable profession spiralling towards its inevitable, ignominious death. No one reads newspapers any more and no one watches television news. People get their information and form their world views in... https://www.scmp.com/magazines/post-magazine/short-reads/article/3186228/why-we-cannot-let-journalism-die-ukraine-war?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/magazines/post-magazine/short-reads/article/3186228/why-we-cannot-let-journalism-die-ukraine-war?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 23 Jul 2022 01:45:22 +0000 The Manicheans among us, who like to divide the world into “good” and evil”, have since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine doubled down on the idea that Russia and China are partners in an evil “axis of autocracy”, which must at all costs be brought to heel by an alliance of democracies. The narrative has been reinforced by February’s joint statement by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping that the relationship between their countries has “no limits” and that there are “no... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3185389/china-russia-no-limits-relationship-should-be-taken-pinch-salt?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3185389/china-russia-no-limits-relationship-should-be-taken-pinch-salt?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 15 Jul 2022 17:30:22 +0000 Over the past decade, global economic prospects have been damaged by the fall of world trade, investment and migration, coupled with the suffering of more than 100 million globally displaced people. That is a prologue to an untenable future. The post-war wave of globalisation benefited mainly advanced economies. It was only after 1980 that some large developing countries, particularly China, broke into world markets for manufactured goods and services while also attracting foreign capital. This... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3183199/misguided-geopolitics-derailing-decades-globalisation-pushing-most?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3183199/misguided-geopolitics-derailing-decades-globalisation-pushing-most?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 28 Jun 2022 17:30:16 +0000 The United States and allies supporting Ukraine against Russia’s invasion have seemingly given up on negotiations to end the war. Their weapons shipments and ever-tougher sanctions are aimed at militarily and economically bringing Moscow to its knees. Beijing has instead advocated a diplomatic solution, as was again demonstrated during President Xi Jinping’s latest phone conversation with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. The Chinese approach is feasible, sensible and humane; talks that... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3182433/only-dialogue-not-escalation-can-bring-end-ukraine-war?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3182433/only-dialogue-not-escalation-can-bring-end-ukraine-war?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 20 Jun 2022 16:13:36 +0000 A post-war scenario in Ukraine that favours both Russian and Western interests is key to a sustainable ceasefire. China could be well placed to pitch its Belt and Road Initiative as the key road map to this scenario. China’s dislike of unilateralism gave rise to a Sino-Russian diplomatic partnership that has seen the two permanent UN Security Council members oppose US military intervention in Syria, sanctions on Iran and other similar policies. However, Russia’s February 24 invasion of Ukraine... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3181523/how-chinas-belt-and-road-diplomacy-could-end-ukraine-conflict-good?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3181523/how-chinas-belt-and-road-diplomacy-could-end-ukraine-conflict-good?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 15 Jun 2022 01:15:09 +0000 Although the Russia-Ukraine crisis has accelerated destabilisation of the global security structure, there are also other developments to consider. For example, Türkiye, taking advantage of the global preoccupation with European security problems, is scaling up its military encroachments into Kurdish-inhabited territories in northern Syria. Beijing was outraged by US President Joe Biden’s remarks on May 23 in Tokyo that the United States would come to Taiwan’s defence. The next day, as Biden met... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3181531/away-ukraine-and-indo-pacific-spotlight-power-struggles-are?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3181531/away-ukraine-and-indo-pacific-spotlight-power-struggles-are?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 14 Jun 2022 19:30:18 +0000 Major participants in the Russia-Ukraine war, whether involved directly or by proxy, lack agreement about when and how it must end. These varying perspectives result in an unseemly policy scrum, adding more confusion to this humanitarian tragedy. This obscene war, despite the many ways it presses hard on our conscience, is developing a second dimension of amoral abstraction. To be sure, the reality could not be more grim. Europe’s two largest countries are in a bloody war. The Russian army has... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3181488/no-one-china-included-wants-see-ukraine-war-going-nuclear?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3181488/no-one-china-included-wants-see-ukraine-war-going-nuclear?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 13 Jun 2022 17:30:19 +0000 Russia is repeatedly dropping escalatory hints about possibly using nuclear weapons. It might be bluffing, but what if it is not? Unlike the atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki that sealed the surrender of Japan in World War II, if Russia opens another nuclear Pandora’s box, everyone can imagine the rest. Put yourself in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s shoes for a moment. You are convinced this is a proxy war between the United States, its Western allies and Russian forces in Ukraine.... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3178984/nato-and-west-must-heed-russias-warnings-avoid-nuclear-holocaust?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3178984/nato-and-west-must-heed-russias-warnings-avoid-nuclear-holocaust?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 25 May 2022 17:30:16 +0000 Geopolitics is the game of strategists figuring out how countries behave. The Ukraine war has shown how easily they can get it wrong, plunging the world into what Henry Kissinger has called a “totally new era”. Hans Kuijper, a retired Dutch diplomat and exceptional sinologist, has written an indispensable guide to understanding where country studies have gone wrong, and how we can use systems thinking and computers to improve them. His book is a tour de force into the philosophy of social... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3178224/ukraine-china-and-beyond-why-geopolitical-experts-often-get-it?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3178224/ukraine-china-and-beyond-why-geopolitical-experts-often-get-it?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 20 May 2022 14:15:16 +0000 “Dialogue of the deaf” was how the European Union’s foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell described the recent EU-China summit, at which both sides talked past each other. Brussels tried to convince China to abide by sanctions on Russia. Beijing instead focused on EU-China trade. This is evidently symptomatic of the growing gulf between China and the West. The bigger question, though, is what is causing this gulf? Most analyses point to power politics or ideological competition, but there is... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3176486/china-can-help-bridge-divide-west-offering-mediate-between-russia?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3176486/china-can-help-bridge-divide-west-offering-mediate-between-russia?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 05 May 2022 17:30:20 +0000 Feel strongly about these letters, or any other aspects of the news? Share your views by emailing us your Letter to the Editor at letters@scmp.com or filling in this Google form. Submissions should not exceed 400 words, and must include your full name and address, plus a phone number for verification. I was born 58 years ago to a Soviet military family in Siberia. From early childhood, amid the marches of soldiers and the movement of tanks, I dreamed of the sea. Finally, I chose oceanography as... https://www.scmp.com/comment/letters/article/3176467/ukraine-war-ordinary-russians-and-soldiers-must-look-history-and?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/letters/article/3176467/ukraine-war-ordinary-russians-and-soldiers-must-look-history-and?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 05 May 2022 06:30:23 +0000 The topic of nuclear war is no joking matter, but I was rather tempted to cry out “Get me rewrite!” while dipping into my old book on the nuclear arms race. So much is changing now. My published tome had been premised on the nuclear-age dynamics between the US and the Soviet Union. But that was five decades ago; China is now included in the top tier. As times change, sometimes profoundly, so must our thinking and analysis, sometimes radically. Once, it was axiomatic ­that the use of nuclear... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3176240/threat-russian-nuclear-attack-shows-why-chinas-no-first-use-policy?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3176240/threat-russian-nuclear-attack-shows-why-chinas-no-first-use-policy?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 02 May 2022 17:30:21 +0000