https://www.scmp.com/rss/512388/feed Marcella Chow, executive director, is a global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management based in Hong Kong. As part of the Global Market Insights Strategy team, she is responsible for formulating and delivering J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s view on the market, economy and investing to both institutional and retail investors across Asia. Prior to joining J.P. Morgan in 2015, Marcella worked as an Emerging Asia economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Marcella obtained a Bachelor of... en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com Since the expansive post-Covid-19 reopening, central banks across the globe have been grappling with inflation underpinned by both pent-up demand and supply disruptions. While we have witnessed arguably the most aggressive monetary tightening cycles since the Great Inflation of the 1970s, markets seem divided on whether the latest cycle of interest rate increases is reaching its conclusion. Inflation is moving in the right direction but uncertainties around energy prices as a result of the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3239321/us-government-bonds-surge-its-different-story-china-and-japan?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3239321/us-government-bonds-surge-its-different-story-china-and-japan?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 27 Oct 2023 12:30:08 +0000 An expected slowdown in the US economy, coupled with weak growth in Europe and a disappointing recovery in China, will have significant implications for economies across the rest of Asia. The headwinds of slowing growth will primarily manifest through a decline in consumer and business spending in the West. In every US recession after 1948 (excluding the pandemic recession), private investment and consumption, on average, were the two negative contributors to gross domestic product. While... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3234584/what-slowing-export-demand-china-and-west-means-rest-asia?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3234584/what-slowing-export-demand-china-and-west-means-rest-asia?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 15 Sep 2023 06:30:09 +0000 Those closely following the global economy over the past year would have noticed a significant divergence in monetary policy between Japan and the rest of the world. While the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank have increased interest rates aggressively to rein in inflation, the Bank of Japan has maintained a loose monetary policy, keeping short-term rates negative and long-term rates around zero. To stimulate economic growth and move Japan’s economy out of deflation, the BOJ has been... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3229871/bank-japan-has-barely-scratched-surface-monetary-tightening?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3229871/bank-japan-has-barely-scratched-surface-monetary-tightening?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 04 Aug 2023 14:30:09 +0000 As economies reopened post Covid-19, the main responsibility of the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) was to be laser-focused on cooling inflation against the strong economic backdrop. In the past year, both central banks have been driving like racing cars, with the Fed revving up interest rates by 5 percentage points since March last year, while the ECB, having started its engine a bit later, in July 2022, has raised its rates by about 4 percentage points. The racetrack this... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3224891/despite-fed-pause-interest-rates-us-and-europe-are-likely-stay-higher-longer?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3224891/despite-fed-pause-interest-rates-us-and-europe-are-likely-stay-higher-longer?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 23 Jun 2023 14:30:11 +0000 China’s post-Covid recovery in consumption continues to be reflected in its latest economic numbers for April but there are worrying signs of a broad-based weakening in its growth momentum in other areas of the economy. Last week, the National Bureau of Statistics released China’s industrial production, retail sales and investment figures for April. Retail sales jumped 18.4 per cent year on year but industrial production gained just 5.6 per cent, and registered its biggest monthly fall since... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3221709/china-must-broaden-its-economic-recovery-consumption-loses-steam?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3221709/china-must-broaden-its-economic-recovery-consumption-loses-steam?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 26 May 2023 08:30:10 +0000 The debate over the US debt ceiling has reached a tipping point as weaker-than-expected tax revenues from the April filings so far mean it has become paramount that Democrats and Republicans come to a compromise on raising the debt ceiling as soon as possible. After the US reached its US$31.4 trillion debt ceiling in January, the Congressional Budget Office warned in February that a federal debt default may occur before July if revenues flowing into the Treasury were to lag behind... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3218440/us-politicians-will-raise-debt-ceiling-will-they-get-timing-right?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3218440/us-politicians-will-raise-debt-ceiling-will-they-get-timing-right?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 28 Apr 2023 13:30:11 +0000 Over the past year, stubbornly high inflation has forced the US Federal Reserve into arguably its most acute monetary tightening cycle yet. Since March last year, the US central bank has increased its interest rates by an aggressive 4.75 percentage points – compared to the average rate tightening cycle of 3.02 percentage points over 21 months. This drastic pickup in interest rates has led to a significant tightening in lending standards and a sharp downward reassessment of asset prices. At the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3215419/us-banking-stress-rises-heres-what-investors-should-be-looking?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3215419/us-banking-stress-rises-heres-what-investors-should-be-looking?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 31 Mar 2023 13:30:13 +0000 Last year was an important milestone for green energy development: for the first time, global investments in renewable energy matched the amount invested in traditional energy, with funding for renewables increasing by US$250 million over the year to reach US$1.1 trillion. While China and the US still account for around 50 per cent of all green investments, other economies are quickly ramping up their own spending plans. Last week, the European Commission unveiled its US$270 billion Green Deal... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3209661/shift-renewables-can-strengthen-national-energy-security-wont-put-brakes-globalisation?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3209661/shift-renewables-can-strengthen-national-energy-security-wont-put-brakes-globalisation?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 10 Feb 2023 14:00:09 +0000 Weighed down by the zero-Covid policy and disruptions from a rise in infections in December, the Chinese economy decelerated in the final quarter of 2022, with real GDP growth slowing to 2.9 per cent year on year. Despite this weakness, data suggests December may have been the low point for the Chinese economy. Domestically, the drastic shift in pandemic policy has seen a wave of Covid-19 infections sweep across the country. A research team from Peking University estimates that infections peaked... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3207408/worst-could-be-over-chinas-economy-reopening-unleashes-pent-demand?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3207408/worst-could-be-over-chinas-economy-reopening-unleashes-pent-demand?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 20 Jan 2023 04:30:12 +0000 Amid growing concerns about a potential US recession, housing market activity in the country – typically a reliable predictor of economic cycles and a precursor to recessions – has started to show growing signs of weakness. Housing sales and home starts fell 13 per cent and 4 per cent in October, bringing the year-to-date decline to 28 per cent and 19 per cent respectively. This reset has been developing over 2022, as the rapid rise in mortgage rates weighs on affordability and demand. A... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3202576/us-housing-market-shows-signs-recession-it-wont-be-repeat-2008?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3202576/us-housing-market-shows-signs-recession-it-wont-be-repeat-2008?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 09 Dec 2022 14:00:12 +0000 The shifting of the global political landscape continues as the United States prepares to hold midterm elections on November 8. The elections will determine the controlling party in Congress, the legislative branch of government, which is made up of the House of Representatives and the Senate. The outcome is crucial since, by and large, it determines the direction of fiscal and other major government policies, and the ease with which they are signed into law. The House decides which laws are... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/united-states/article/3197334/markets-have-bigger-worries-us-midterm-election-results?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/united-states/article/3197334/markets-have-bigger-worries-us-midterm-election-results?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 28 Oct 2022 17:30:11 +0000 European inflation has hit record levels in recent months, with the consumer price index in the euro zone rising 9.1 per cent year on year in August. The epicentre of this rapid rise is the energy supply shortage caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Reduced gas supplies stem from policy initiatives such as the European Commission’s REPowerEU plan to reduce the bloc’s dependence on Russian gas by two-thirds this year. This was further exacerbated when Moscow cut supplies to countries that... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3193373/how-europes-energy-crisis-could-spur-faster-shift-renewables?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3193373/how-europes-energy-crisis-could-spur-faster-shift-renewables?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 23 Sep 2022 17:30:13 +0000 With US consumer confidence hitting a lull and growing uncertainties over China’s economy, there are increasing concerns that a slowdown in global growth could derail Asia’s recovery. To gauge the trajectory of Asia’s rebound in the case of a US economic slowdown, a useful starting point is the internal and external drivers behind the region’s growth over the past two years. Externally, the US consumption boom, starting in mid-2020, fuelled an unprecedented rise in Asian exports. The internal... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3190109/how-intra-asian-trade-can-sustain-regional-recovery-us-and-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3190109/how-intra-asian-trade-can-sustain-regional-recovery-us-and-china?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 26 Aug 2022 03:30:25 +0000 The pursuit of a better quality of life amid a growing but ageing population and social inequality exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic has led to vast demand for improved social infrastructure. An important component of infrastructure-spending proposals relates to the upgrading of medical infrastructure. A key reason for this is the uptick in old-age dependency ratios. The effects of a growing “silver generation” and falling fertility rates mean the proportion of old-age population relative to... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3186863/china-us-spending-healthcare-housing-and-education-must-rise?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3186863/china-us-spending-healthcare-housing-and-education-must-rise?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 29 Jul 2022 14:00:24 +0000 The world is facing unprecedented challenges. Climate change and the resulting extreme weather affect the way we live, work and interact with our environment. Meanwhile, urbanisation is driving demand for increased connectivity and putting more pressure on services in cities, including transport and communication. But these structural trends also present opportunities. Investing in essential assets that help build a more sustainable and inclusive economy will be key to addressing these... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3185274/how-investing-sustainable-infrastructure-can-help-mitigate-effects?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3185274/how-investing-sustainable-infrastructure-can-help-mitigate-effects?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 15 Jul 2022 04:30:14 +0000 The year so far has been challenging for global markets. Growing concerns about an overly hawkish US Federal Reserve and intensifying growth headwinds in China have led to equity sell-offs while the rise in US Treasury yields has weighed on fixed income markets given the inverse relationship between bond prices and interest rates. While historically stock and bond performances have tended to move in opposite directions, both asset classes have seen negative returns in the year to date with an... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3178366/why-stocks-and-bonds-are-moving-same-direction-down?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3178366/why-stocks-and-bonds-are-moving-same-direction-down?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 20 May 2022 08:30:11 +0000 As communities took the opportunity this Earth Day, April 22, to reflect on the impact of climate change and raise awareness of the importance of sustainability, many are also re-evaluating the dynamics driving the stark changes in global energy and commodity markets. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has fuelled an unprecedented rise in commodity prices. As a result, governments are putting greater emphasis on improving food and energy self-sufficiency, and reducing their dependency on Russia’s oil,... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3174999/how-ukraine-conflict-forcing-world-towards-greater-food-and-energy?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3174999/how-ukraine-conflict-forcing-world-towards-greater-food-and-energy?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 22 Apr 2022 05:30:23 +0000