https://www.scmp.com/rss/512848/feed Sameed Basha is a defence and political analyst with a master’s degree in international relations from Deakin University, Australia. He specialises in Asia-Pacific regional dynamics and conflict & security studies. en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com Sameed Basha Sameed Basha Many American wars begin with the assumption that brute force will lead to a swift and decisive victory. While the US military is highly effective at conventional deterrence, it has consistently struggled to defeat adversaries employing asymmetric tactics. In conflicts such as Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan and Yemen, Washington repeatedly underestimated its adversaries by assessing their strength based on their ability to fight conventionally. Iran represents the most dangerous iteration of... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3345222/us-war-iran-isnt-likely-go-planned?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3345222/us-war-iran-isnt-likely-go-planned?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 03 Mar 2026 12:30:08 +0000 Sameed Basha Sameed Basha Markets that seemed initially unconcerned about US-China trade tensions reacted sharply last Friday to US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose an extra 100 per cent tariffs on Chinese imports. Wall Street, driven by AI-focused tech companies, lost around US$2 trillion in value. This increase in dependence on China’s supply chain suggests that any further escalation could trigger a market bubble burst. Mixed messaging from Trump to try to keep China off balance isn’t helping to ease... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3328699/trumps-tariff-tirade-nothing-more-hurtful-political-theatre?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3328699/trumps-tariff-tirade-nothing-more-hurtful-political-theatre?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 13 Oct 2025 12:30:07 +0000 I support Donald Trump, but not for the reasons you might think. Supporting the Republican presidential nominee and former US president exclusively based on a four-year term loses sight of the possible impact of his protectionist policies and his preference for withdrawing the United States from its traditional spheres of influence in global commerce and diplomacy, and from its military commitments. This has allowed other players, like China and Russia, to fill the void, democratising the... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3284431/how-trump-victory-could-benefit-world?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3284431/how-trump-victory-could-benefit-world?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 01 Nov 2024 12:30:11 +0000 As the world focuses on Ukraine’s incursion into the Kursk region and Russia’s potential breach of defences outside Pokrovsk, little attention is being paid to Moscow’s plans to continue this momentum with the introduction of Iranian-made missiles in the coming months. The United States sees any export of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia as a “dramatic escalation”, especially since Iran reportedly sent 400 short-range missiles to Russia – including the Fateh-110 and its variant, the... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3277975/how-iranian-missiles-can-tip-balance-russias-favour-ukraine-war?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3277975/how-iranian-missiles-can-tip-balance-russias-favour-ukraine-war?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 11 Sep 2024 12:30:09 +0000 As the United States fortifies its alliances with the Quad and Aukus to curb China’s ambitions in the South China Sea, Russia’s military treaty with North Korea has complicated Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy. This agreement, which could be perceived as a means for Russia to bolster its defence procurement from North Korea for its invasion of Ukraine, has in fact positioned Russia as a formidable player in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. Despite the absence of a formal tripartite... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3268406/russia-north-korea-pact-dooms-us-hopes-indo-pacific-dominance?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3268406/russia-north-korea-pact-dooms-us-hopes-indo-pacific-dominance?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 01 Jul 2024 21:30:09 +0000 In playing up the China threat and sowing the seeds of discontent, Australia has missed an opportunity to show its maturity as a regional stakeholder at its recent summit with Asean in Melbourne. Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong talked about “the most confronting circumstances in our region in decades”, including “destabilising, provocative and coercive actions”, in comments that did not name China but were clearly aimed at it. Announcing A$286.5 million (US$186.7 million) in funding for... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/asia/article/3254737/australias-offer-fund-asean-security-must-be-met-extreme-caution?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/asia/article/3254737/australias-offer-fund-asean-security-must-be-met-extreme-caution?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 11 Mar 2024 21:30:20 +0000 The geopolitical landscape has changed significantly since the meeting of Nato defence ministers in October 2023. With global attention and military aid shifting towards the conflict in the Middle East, Ukraine has arguably lost its priority status in the eyes of the Western world. Nato’s attempts to isolate Russia through sanctions have failed to bring a just resolution to the war. Last October, the International Monetary Fund lowered its gross domestic product forecast for Russia to 1.1 per... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/world/article/3252443/stronger-europe-should-not-be-built-fear-russia?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/world/article/3252443/stronger-europe-should-not-be-built-fear-russia?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 19 Feb 2024 11:30:17 +0000 Russia’s war of attrition has thwarted Ukraine’s summer offensive, rendering its objectives unsuccessful, such as penetrating Russia’s land bridge and reclaiming much of its lost territory. This much-hyped and heavily funded offensive has resulted in minimal gains for Ukraine, and as autumn takes hold, a stalemate ensues. The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are determined to continue fighting the Russians, but everything else – from training, arming, strategising and logistics, which are the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/article/3236823/ukraine-war-why-summer-offensive-failing?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/article/3236823/ukraine-war-why-summer-offensive-failing?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 06 Oct 2023 21:30:16 +0000 Representatives from the Australian government are scheduled to embark on a trip to Beijing this week, signalling the end of three years of strained diplomatic relations. This trip is an ongoing attempt to fully restore ties before the eventual visit by Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, expected to be in October, coinciding with the anniversary of the historic visit by prime minister Gough Whitlam in 1973. It is unclear what environment Canberra wishes to create from these talks for... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3233437/australia-only-has-itself-blame-trade-woes-china-after-siding-us?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3233437/australia-only-has-itself-blame-trade-woes-china-after-siding-us?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 05 Sep 2023 22:15:16 +0000 India stands to make itself an outlier at the Brics summit in South Africa this week with its dubious non-alignment policy. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, India has extracted opportunities from new partners like the US and historical partner Russia by following a policy of courting all, but loyal to none. India finds itself at the crossroads of geopolitics as it has benefited greatly from cheap oil and increased trade with Russia due to the West’s attempt to isolate the country and has... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3231774/india-may-soon-be-forced-choose-between-brics-and-west?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3231774/india-may-soon-be-forced-choose-between-brics-and-west?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 22 Aug 2023 22:15:15 +0000 The Nato summit in Lithuania is being held amid the backdrop of it being 500 days since Russia invaded Ukraine, which has caused the transatlantic alliance to increase the frequency of its summits. The alliance has convened three times since the start of the conflict, in contrast to the five times it had met in the decade before the conflict. Despite frequent diplomatic discussions, Nato has yet to take a nuanced approach to resolving one of the most significant conflicts in Europe since World... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3227272/ukraine-war-fading-support-and-internal-divisions-must-push-nato-negotiating-table?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3227272/ukraine-war-fading-support-and-internal-divisions-must-push-nato-negotiating-table?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 11 Jul 2023 19:30:11 +0000 A state visit by Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas to China has come when Chinese-led efforts to broker peace in the Middle East have changed the nature of a region that once was dominated by the US. Beijing has put forward a proposal for peace between Israel and Palestine, which calls for the restoration of the Palestinian state along the 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital, increased development and humanitarian assistance to Palestine, and an end to provocative... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3224569/us-loses-ground-china-middle-east-israel-needs-rethink-its-position?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3224569/us-loses-ground-china-middle-east-israel-needs-rethink-its-position?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 19 Jun 2023 19:30:20 +0000 Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese backed a joint statement at the recent G7 summit in Japan about de-risking trade with China as his trade minister, Don Farrell, concluded a trip to Beijing seeking to end tariffs on Australian exports due to the country’s posturing against its biggest export partner. This contradictory approach from Canberra has been a hallmark of its diplomacy with Beijing. On one hand, it extends an olive branch, seeking to cease or de-escalate economic tensions which... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3221667/confused-australia-must-decide-china-friend-or-foe?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3221667/confused-australia-must-decide-china-friend-or-foe?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 28 May 2023 00:15:11 +0000 The China “threat” has long been trumpeted in Australia, yet there have been few details about what the threat actually consists of. The government’s latest defence strategic review now calls for an overhaul to arm its forces with long-range capabilities, hyping up an undefined China “threat” to justify the expenditure. The concepts used to garner public support look similar to American tactics deployed during the “war on terror” in Afghanistan – where the strategy was unclear, the goals never... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3218605/why-australia-focusing-defence-and-vague-china-threat-when-relations-are-warming?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3218605/why-australia-focusing-defence-and-vague-china-threat-when-relations-are-warming?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 30 Apr 2023 19:30:08 +0000 The Ukraine war has caused seismic geopolitical and economic shifts, with Russia and China leading a rush to “de-dollarise” trade. Last week, Brazil began to accept trade settlements and investments in yuan. The week before, China paid yuan for liquefied natural gas from France’s TotalEnergies on the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange – its first yuan-settled international LNG trade. That same week, Asean’s finance ministers and central bank governors gathered to discuss greater... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3216363/after-decades-us-hegemony-global-shift-away-dollar-suddenly-picking-speed?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3216363/after-decades-us-hegemony-global-shift-away-dollar-suddenly-picking-speed?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 10 Apr 2023 13:15:22 +0000 When faced with sanctions from Beijing, Canberra exhibited a resilient front. Still, internal anxieties about the impact on its economy led Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to visit India recently, a potential export market and replacement for Australia’s economic ties with China. Comparing China to India is like comparing apples with oranges, with the only similarity being their billion-plus populations. The United States is encouraging its allies like Australia to bet big on India as the slow... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3213475/india-ready-take-chinas-place-global-economy-thats-just-wishful-thinking?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3213475/india-ready-take-chinas-place-global-economy-thats-just-wishful-thinking?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 15 Mar 2023 07:45:10 +0000 China’s surveillance balloon fiasco in the United States is a potent reminder of needing guardrails to manage the ongoing competition between the two countries. President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden’s summit in November hoped to quell tensions between the superpowers by increasing channels of communication and dialogue. However, the domestic response in both countries has exposed how internal dynamics in China and the US can affect their relationship during times of crisis. The... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3210182/spy-balloon-fallout-shows-urgent-need-guardrails-us-china-relationship?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3210182/spy-balloon-fallout-shows-urgent-need-guardrails-us-china-relationship?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 17 Feb 2023 00:15:09 +0000 Australia and China are set to mark 50 years since establishing diplomatic relations in 1972. What should have been a celebration of a blossoming exchange of economic, cultural and academic endeavours between the two countries will, instead, be marked by a sombre mood. The late 1970s and much throughout the 1980s were transformative years for both countries, as Australia began deregulating its industries and opening up to the world around the same time Deng Xiaoping embarked on revolutionising... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3203687/australia-owes-its-economic-boom-china-and-it-should-think-twice-about-moving?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3203687/australia-owes-its-economic-boom-china-and-it-should-think-twice-about-moving?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 19 Dec 2022 19:30:08 +0000 Seeking new frontiers, Saudi Arabia has rolled out the red carpet for China’s President Xi Jinping on his three-day visit. The two countries seek to sign agreements worth around $US30 billion to bolster relations, with bilateral trade currently at nearly US$90 billion. But, beyond the pageantry of the meeting, what matters is the context within which it is taking place. The Gulf States, particularly Saudi Arabia, have become essential players in the global energy markets ever since... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3202507/why-china-may-have-more-offer-saudi-arabia-us?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3202507/why-china-may-have-more-offer-saudi-arabia-us?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 08 Dec 2022 09:45:08 +0000 With winter quickly approaching, anxiety is growing over whether Russia will act on its elusive threats to turn off the gas and freeze Europe. This, along with Russia’s military withdrawal from Kherson and shift in focus to the Donbas region, may finally push US President Joe Biden to bring an unrelenting Volodymyr Zelensky to the negotiating table with Russia’s Vladimir Putin. Despite the US’ providing unwavering support to Ukraine, Kyiv’s success in liberating captured territory may allow it... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3200666/weary-west-may-push-ukraine-negotiating-table-russia?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3200666/weary-west-may-push-ukraine-negotiating-table-russia?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 24 Nov 2022 17:00:13 +0000 Plans by the US to station up to six B-52 bombers in Northern Australia are part of a broader strategy to incorporate elements of its Aukus alliance and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue in a multilayered military doctrine designed to contain China and assert US dominance in the South China Sea and Pacific. The bombers are a part of a broader A$1 billion (US$646 million) upgrade of defence facilities, which includes funding to expand both the US-Australian spy base at Pine Gap and the Tindal... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3199026/hosting-us-b-52-bombers-australia-risks-making-itself-target-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3199026/hosting-us-b-52-bombers-australia-risks-making-itself-target-china?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 12 Nov 2022 22:45:14 +0000 Iran’s supply of drones and an agreement to provide surface-to-surface short-range missiles to Russia reveals an abject failure of US foreign policy, which has claimed for decades that sanctions imposed on the country were helping to contain it. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s outreach to Iran is a strategic one. Unlike other countries, Iran can continue to supply weapons and provide technical assistance unhindered by the threat of sanctions to its weapons manufacturing facilities and the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3198105/why-40-years-us-sanctions-failed-keep-iran-away-russia?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3198105/why-40-years-us-sanctions-failed-keep-iran-away-russia?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 04 Nov 2022 19:30:07 +0000 Isolationist strategies have become the standard measure when dealing with rogue states. As a result, Russia has felt the full force of Western-led sanctions this year, stunting its economic growth and preventing it from meeting its military objectives. Still, recent events surrounding the partial mobilisation of 300,000 reservists to salvage modest military gains and the annexation of occupied territories challenge this idea. This approach is problematic. These countermeasures not only fail to... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3194759/ukraine-war-europe-turning-back-fleeing-russians-only-plays-putins?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3194759/ukraine-war-europe-turning-back-fleeing-russians-only-plays-putins?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 05 Oct 2022 17:00:11 +0000 The first US-Pacific Island Country Summit will be held later this month in an attempt to present the United States as a counterweight to China’s growing influence in the Pacific region. The focus of the two-day summit is to address the shift in the regional equilibrium after the Solomon Islands signed a security pact with China. The summit appears to be a show of episodic attention, rudderless and subject to strategic drift. Washington perceives Beijing to be contesting its dominance in the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3193168/how-us-can-reset-ties-pacific-island-nations-drifting-towards-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3193168/how-us-can-reset-ties-pacific-island-nations-drifting-towards-china?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 22 Sep 2022 01:15:12 +0000 Economic sanctions will not deter Russia from continuing its war in Ukraine, as long as back-door economic deals, such as those involving crude oil exports, continue to prop up its war efforts. The US Treasury Department told India that through high-seas transfers, Russian crude oil was taken to a port in the Indian state of Gujarat, where it was refined and then shipped to New York. The transfers violate the sanctions on Russian-origin energy products. Reserve Bank of India deputy governor... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/asia/article/3190354/indias-ukraine-war-stance-starting-look-less-neutrality-and?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/asia/article/3190354/indias-ukraine-war-stance-starting-look-less-neutrality-and?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 29 Aug 2022 03:30:16 +0000 The shift in global alliances is bringing together countries like Iran and Russia, two pariah states that have borne the brunt of US-led sanctions and criticism for many decades. They present an ever-growing axis of countries flaunting transgressions against the declining influence of the United States. With more sanctions on the way for Russia, do US economic sanctions work, or are they a toothless endeavour? The failure rate of sanctions is anything from 65 per cent to 95 per cent, according... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3189042/can-us-economic-sanctions-still-work-multlipolar-world?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3189042/can-us-economic-sanctions-still-work-multlipolar-world?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 16 Aug 2022 17:30:23 +0000 The trip to Taiwan by Nancy Pelosi, third in line to the US presidency, marked the most senior-level US visit to the island in 25 years. For the past two weeks, tensions have been building around the event, with sharp words from Beijing about violating the one-China policy. Pelosi’s visit was not a spur-of-the-moment thing but a venture carefully coordinated by the White House, Congress and the Pentagon so as to balance provocation with plausible deniability. It was another attempt by the US at... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3187733/pelosi-risked-global-security-taiwan-visit-all-feeble-attempt-shore?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3187733/pelosi-risked-global-security-taiwan-visit-all-feeble-attempt-shore?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 05 Aug 2022 17:30:22 +0000 The olive branch extended by China has been met with furore in Australia, which had hoped China would lift sanctions imposed on critical industries like barley, coal and fisheries without preconditions. Rebuking China’s list of “demands”, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has demonstrated his convictions on not meeting China halfway by stating Australia “does not respond to demands”. After all, what are the demands? In a nutshell, China wants Australia to treat it as a partner rather than an... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3185788/australia-needs-better-terms-china-yet-refuses-meet-beijing-halfway?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3185788/australia-needs-better-terms-china-yet-refuses-meet-beijing-halfway?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 20 Jul 2022 19:30:21 +0000 Australia, caught off guard by the recent security pact between the Solomon Islands and China, has yet to recover from Beijing’s charm offensive in the Pacific island nations. China, which last month sent Foreign Minister Wang Yi on a 10-day tour of the South Pacific, has put forward wide-ranging proposals – including a regional security deal – in the hope of rallying 10 Pacific island nations into developing an interconnected cooperative environment based on mutual respect and expanding... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3181841/australias-china-bias-and-colonial-blinkers-mean-it-fails-see-big?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3181841/australias-china-bias-and-colonial-blinkers-mean-it-fails-see-big?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 19 Jun 2022 01:15:24 +0000