https://www.scmp.com/rss/512932/feed Abishur Prakash is the founder of The Geopolitical Business, an advisory firm in Toronto. He is a keynote speaker and the author of five books. He also produces the Mr Geopolitics insights for global leaders. en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com Abishur Prakash Abishur Prakash Last month, Contemporary Amperex Technology Limited (CATL), the world’s largest battery company, started building a massive joint venture plant in Spain. It came weeks after Spain’s King Felipe visited Beijing, seeking a stronger EU-China relationship as US commitments wobble. Except Spain, electrified by the potential job creation, ran into a problem: CATL wants to bring 2,000 Chinese workers to build the plant. What’s happening in Spain is part of a complicated new showdown between the... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3336510/complicated-new-eu-china-showdown-quietly-taking-shape?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3336510/complicated-new-eu-china-showdown-quietly-taking-shape?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 17 Dec 2025 21:30:09 +0000 Abishur Prakash Abishur Prakash In August, when US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the American and Chinese trade teams would meet in two to three months, a huge gap between talks, the prognosis for US-China relations was not positive. Now, as China moves on multiple fronts at once, the prognosis appears to be terminal. With US President Donald Trump threatening an additional 100 per cent tariff in November, the writing is on the wall: US-China talks have failed. The rapprochement is over. From Beijing’s... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3328976/3-signs-chinas-patience-trump-end?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3328976/3-signs-chinas-patience-trump-end?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 16 Oct 2025 21:30:08 +0000 Abishur Prakash Abishur Prakash Earlier this month, Anthropic, the American artificial intelligence company, entered the US-China fight. It barred companies from using its AI services if they were more than 50 per cent owned by Chinese entities. This was a double punch – China’s access to American technology hit another obstacle, and the global business world was prodded again to reject Chinese investment. Just a few months ago, Anthropic’s move would have knocked the wind out of China. But the recent Shanghai Cooperation... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3325174/chinas-moment-rewire-world-arriving-what-will-it-do?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3325174/chinas-moment-rewire-world-arriving-what-will-it-do?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 15 Sep 2025 22:30:08 +0000 Abishur Prakash Abishur Prakash For almost a decade, since Donald Trump was first elected US president in 2016, China has tried to keep its world spinning a certain way. However, the decisions across multiple administrations in the United States, from outbound investment restrictions to technology trade rules, have disturbed the fragile ground China has stood on to develop and grow. Officials in Beijing have been searching for opportunities to turn the tide in their favour. Strangely, China’s salvation arrived in the form of... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3318303/china-win-first-round-economic-war-us-blessing-and-curse?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3318303/china-win-first-round-economic-war-us-blessing-and-curse?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 24 Jul 2025 12:30:07 +0000 Israel’s reported assassination of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and of senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut represent a turning point for the Middle East. The calculations have changed – for Israel, Iran and the whole world. While Iran has vowed to take revenge against Israel, it is becoming clear that, in the short term, the main fight is likely to be between Israel and Hezbollah as Iran is unlikely to take a step that triggers a regional war. Hezbollah is... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3274275/israel-hezbollah-war-not-question-if-when?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3274275/israel-hezbollah-war-not-question-if-when?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 14 Aug 2024 12:30:10 +0000 Is it checkmate? When the Kremlin announced Russian President Vladimir Putin’s state visit to North Korea, the West was sceptical about what would be accomplished. The “ceiling” on the visit appeared to be the continued flow of North Korean weapons to Russia. The possibility that Russia and North Korea would do more was pushed aside. Few people seemed to be connecting the dots. Earlier, at the St Petersburg economic forum, Putin warned that Moscow could arm states (and groups) that could then... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3267974/kim-putin-deal-may-kick-new-and-dangerous-superpower-competition?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3267974/kim-putin-deal-may-kick-new-and-dangerous-superpower-competition?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 27 Jun 2024 12:30:08 +0000 On the first day of President Xi Jinping’s state visit to France, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made a bold statement after meeting Xi and French President Emmanuel Macron. She warned that unless China changed its stance on trade – that is, by becoming fairer and keeping its economy open – the European Union would begin using a full spectrum of “trade defence instruments”. Put differently, she was warning of trade retaliation unless China adopted a new approach to its... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3262540/how-xis-visit-exposed-split-europe-over-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3262540/how-xis-visit-exposed-split-europe-over-china?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 15 May 2024 12:30:17 +0000 For the first time, Iran has directly attacked Israel. More than 300 drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles were launched by Iran towards Israel. Standing guard on the receiving end, Israel, the US, the UK, France and partners like Jordan intercepted the Iranian barrage. The result: 99 per cent of Iran’s drones and missiles were shot down. The attack represents a new status quo for the Middle East. Whatever stability and optimism existed previously is now effectively gone. It is all but... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3259040/israel-iran-showdown-puts-whole-world-uncharted-territory?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3259040/israel-iran-showdown-puts-whole-world-uncharted-territory?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 16 Apr 2024 12:30:24 +0000 Last year, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte surprised many by taking a stance on the rivalry between the United States and China. In an opinion piece calling for greater support for Ukraine, he expressed doubt about China’s dominance in the 21st century, declaring it to be the century of democracy and America. This marked a significant shift for the Netherlands towards the Western alliance. It initially had few allies in such a move, but other nations are now following suit. The allure of China... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/world/article/3256041/why-are-so-many-countries-rethinking-their-relations-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/world/article/3256041/why-are-so-many-countries-rethinking-their-relations-china?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 21 Mar 2024 12:30:12 +0000 Throughout history, there have been pivotal moments in geopolitics that have shaped the world. The appointment of Adolf Hitler as chancellor of Germany in 1933; the 1947 Mountbatten Plan announcing the partition of India and eventual withdrawal of the British Empire from the Indian subcontinent; the dissolution of the Soviet Union, granting independence to the Soviet states in December 1991. These geopolitical events shifted the tectonic plates of the world, even if few people at the time knew... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3247904/gaza-ukraine-crises-evidence-world-poised-knife-edge?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3247904/gaza-ukraine-crises-evidence-world-poised-knife-edge?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 11 Jan 2024 11:30:13 +0000 As the pendulum of geopolitics swings in a different direction, driven by the Ukraine war and US-China rivalry, one of the new realities is that populism is back, with a fierceness unseen in modern times. Look no further than Latin America. As Argentina grapples with an unprecedented economic crisis, the populace has elected Javier Milei as president. His ideas, if implemented, could reshape global affairs. When campaigning for president, Milei proposed bold changes to his nation’s relationship... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3242333/how-argentinas-radical-new-pro-us-leader-javier-milei-could-rock-latin-america-and-world?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3242333/how-argentinas-radical-new-pro-us-leader-javier-milei-could-rock-latin-america-and-world?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 22 Nov 2023 11:30:11 +0000 In mid-August, the front runner in Argentina’s presidential race, Javier Milei, called for radical changes. If elected, he would bring Argentina closer to the US, reform trade with Brazil, freeze ties with socialist countries, leave the Mercosur trading group, and end Argentina’s relationship with China. Milei referred to China as an “assassin”, pointing fingers at the Chinese government for not respecting people’s freedoms. A little more than a week later, it was announced that Argentina would... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3232767/brics-biggest-challenge-near-term-not-falling-apart?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3232767/brics-biggest-challenge-near-term-not-falling-apart?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 30 Aug 2023 22:15:09 +0000 At the Summit for a New Global Financing Pact in Paris, South Africa’s leader raised the heat on the West. With the gaze of the host, French President Emmanuel Macron, squarely on him, President Cyril Ramaphosa used his remarks at the closing ceremony to first address his Brazilian counterpart. He said with a grin: “President Lula, don’t worry. When we have the Brics meeting, the issue of currency is top on the agenda, so we are going to discuss it.” South Africa, host of the Brics summit for... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3228891/can-brics-torch-bearer-emerging-world-challenge-established-order?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3228891/can-brics-torch-bearer-emerging-world-challenge-established-order?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 26 Jul 2023 19:30:10 +0000 The Lithuanians do not want Chinese smartphones. The Canadians expelled a Chinese diplomat. The Swiss want to romance Taipei. The Italians want to ditch the Belt and Road Initiative. Across the globe, nations are unsheathing their swords against China. They are standing up to Beijing, decoupling or – as the new catchphrase goes – de-risking to ensure their future is not reliant on being in China’s good graces. All of this is taking place before China ascends to the level of global superpower, a... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3222234/more-nations-oppose-china-how-seriously-does-world-take-beijing?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3222234/more-nations-oppose-china-how-seriously-does-world-take-beijing?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 01 Jun 2023 00:15:09 +0000 As India prepares to host the Group of 20 in September, it might be the “last supper” for the grouping. G20, the poster child of globalisation, is plagued by a myriad of crises – none of which it can solve. Or can it? Let’s start with nuclear weapons. A new nuclear arms race has begun, with Russia planning to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. Poland might be next, hosting American nukes. In the Indo-Pacific, South Korea and the United States are discussing joint control of nuclear... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3218475/india-doomed-chair-most-impotent-g20-modern-times?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3218475/india-doomed-chair-most-impotent-g20-modern-times?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 28 Apr 2023 19:30:10 +0000 China’s new foreign minister, Qin Gang, recently warned that his country and the United States were on a course towards “conflict and confrontation”. The warning, from one nuclear power to another, comes as a new danger spreads around the globe. From the Indo-Pacific to Europe, the possibility that nuclear weapons will be used preemptively is growing. But something else is also taking place. A handful of countries, each with their geopolitical dilemmas, are opening up to the idea of hosting... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3213525/insecure-world-more-countries-are-reaching-nuclear-weapons?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3213525/insecure-world-more-countries-are-reaching-nuclear-weapons?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 15 Mar 2023 17:00:09 +0000 The world is on edge. “Balloongate” between the United States and China is just the tip of the iceberg. Alongside this are calls by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to equip his country with fighter jets, South Korea exploring managing nuclear weapons and a new strike by Israel on a weapons factory in Iran reportedly producing drones for Russia. It is clear that the world is moving in a dangerous direction. Geopolitical hotspots that have been global headaches for decades are... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3210537/death-diplomacy-driving-world-dangerous-era-war-becomes-new-normal?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3210537/death-diplomacy-driving-world-dangerous-era-war-becomes-new-normal?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 19 Feb 2023 19:30:14 +0000 In Greece, unions representing 2.5 million workers have gone on an “inflation strike” to protest against the rising cost of living. In France, protests over the state of the economy attracted over 100,000 people. In the Czech Republic, almost 70,000 people demonstrated against the EU and Nato, and called for the Czech government to resign. In Germany, nearly 25,000 people across multiple cities protested against energy prices. It’s a similar story in Romania, Belgium, and Italy. The protests... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3201269/europe-overestimating-its-solidarity-and-global-influence-trying-shut-out-russia?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3201269/europe-overestimating-its-solidarity-and-global-influence-trying-shut-out-russia?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 30 Nov 2022 17:00:08 +0000 For the first time in decades, China’s future is up in the air. Many global challenges are besieging the country, not least the US efforts to cordon off the globe from China – for example, by restricting chip exports. The prediction that China would lead the world is now in doubt. Ironically, much of what China is experiencing is a consequence of its own success. China’s rise has created shock waves that Beijing must deal with to continue rising. If China wants to achieve what it set out to in... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3199796/chinas-rise-risks-being-thwarted-outdated-plans-and-shifting-world?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3199796/chinas-rise-risks-being-thwarted-outdated-plans-and-shifting-world?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 19 Nov 2022 12:30:08 +0000 At the recent BRICS summit, there was one message that came out loud and clear: the grouping is intent on becoming independent from the West and is ready to chart its own course. The ideas discussed by BRICS leaders point to new contours of the world forming. For example, President Xi Jinping said sanctions weaponise the global economy and putting “blind faith in the so-called position of strength” is not the right way. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision of cooperation as a governance... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3183121/how-expanded-brics-could-lead-world-instead-waning-west?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3183121/how-expanded-brics-could-lead-world-instead-waning-west?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 28 Jun 2022 01:15:17 +0000