https://www.scmp.com/rss/513378/feed Dr Gabriela Bernal is a North Korea analyst based in Seoul, South Korea. She is the founder of Peninsula Dispatch, an online site that provides in-depth analysis of Korean peninsula affairs. Dr Bernal is also a freelance writer and has written for various media outlets as well as for think tanks and academic publications. en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com Gabriela Bernal Gabriela Bernal Having invested significant diplomatic capital into ties with Russia in recent years, North Korea now seems to be pivoting back to China. Leader Kim Jong-un said his country places “the greatest value” on improving ties with Beijing. This shift came during Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s two-day visit to North Korea last week, where he met Kim and North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui. Notably, Wang’s visit marked his first to North Korea since 2019. In the intervening years of the... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3349984/why-north-korea-rekindling-china-relations?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3349984/why-north-korea-rekindling-china-relations?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 15 Apr 2026 21:30:12 +0000 Gabriela Bernal Gabriela Bernal The US removal of Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro from power has reverberated far beyond Latin America. In Pyongyang, where regime survival is the paramount concern and every US action is scrutinised for hostile intent, the deposing of a sitting head of state sends an unmistakable message: dialogue with Washington is a dangerous gamble, and only nuclear weapons guarantee survival. The Venezuela operation may have killed the prospects for meaningful US-North Korea diplomacy in 2026 before they even... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3338953/maduros-fate-venezuela-hardens-north-koreas-nuclear-resolve?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3338953/maduros-fate-venezuela-hardens-north-koreas-nuclear-resolve?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 08 Jan 2026 21:30:08 +0000 Gabriela Bernal Gabriela Bernal The latest Doha Forum laid bare an uncomfortable truth: Europe is losing its seat at the table of global affairs. The convergence of the Trump administration’s newly released national security strategy and pointed remarks from senior US officials has exposed the continent’s precarious position in a rapidly transforming landscape – one where Europe increasingly finds itself relegated to the sidelines. At the forum, the message from US ambassador to Nato Matthew Whitaker was blunt and unequivocal:... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3335951/doha-forum-made-clear-europe-losing-its-seat-table?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3335951/doha-forum-made-clear-europe-losing-its-seat-table?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 16 Dec 2025 21:30:09 +0000 Gabriela Bernal Gabriela Bernal South Korea, under President Lee Jae-myung, has repeatedly proclaimed its desire to improve relations and re-engage in diplomacy with North Korea. Yet a landmark agreement with Washington formalised last week reveals a starkly different priority: advancing military capabilities that will almost certainly drive the two Koreas further apart. The United States has officially approved South Korea’s pursuit of nuclear-powered submarines while supporting Seoul’s efforts to secure uranium enrichment... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3333442/how-south-koreas-nuclear-sub-deal-us-could-torpedo-inter-korean-peace?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3333442/how-south-koreas-nuclear-sub-deal-us-could-torpedo-inter-korean-peace?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 23 Nov 2025 21:30:09 +0000 Gabriela Bernal Gabriela Bernal Ahead of US President Donald Trump’s coming visit to South Korea, speculation is mounting about a possible meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. CNN reported that Trump administration officials have privately discussed arranging such an encounter. Meanwhile, the suspension of trips to Panmunjom next week has only fuelled rumours that a repeat of the dramatic 2019 summit is imminent. Back then, Trump tweeted an invitation to Kim within 48 hours before they met at the truce village. Yet... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3329968/if-us-wants-peace-korea-no-talks-are-better-rushed-talks?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3329968/if-us-wants-peace-korea-no-talks-are-better-rushed-talks?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 23 Oct 2025 12:30:09 +0000 Gabriela Bernal Gabriela Bernal For decades, discussions about North Korea’s military threat have centred almost exclusively on its nuclear weapons programme. This view, however, is increasingly inadequate for understanding the evolving security challenge that Pyongyang poses to Northeast Asia and beyond. Last month, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un signalled a fundamental shift in military strategy. Moving beyond his regime’s traditional emphasis on nuclear deterrence, Kim said the country would significantly upgrade its... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3327237/world-cannot-ignore-threat-modernised-north-korean-military?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3327237/world-cannot-ignore-threat-modernised-north-korean-military?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 01 Oct 2025 21:30:08 +0000 Gabriela Bernal Gabriela Bernal For over a decade, the name Kim Jong-un has been synonymous with an isolated, economically struggling pariah state. Despite possessing nuclear weapons, North Korea has long been dismissed by the international community as a minor player on the world stage. That perception has now fundamentally changed. As Kim stood alongside Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping at China’s Victory Day parade last Wednesday and then had one-on-one summits with both, it signalled far... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3324635/how-kim-jong-un-notched-big-diplomatic-win-beijing?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3324635/how-kim-jong-un-notched-big-diplomatic-win-beijing?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 08 Sep 2025 21:30:08 +0000 Gabriela Bernal Gabriela Bernal South Korea’s newly elected president, Lee Jae-myung, has been increasingly vocal about resuming exchanges with North Korea. This month alone, he has advocated for peaceful coexistence with the North, the removal of loudspeakers from the demilitarised zone (DMZ), the restoration of various inter-Korean agreements and the establishment of a nuclear-free Korean peninsula. Despite Lee’s diplomatic overtures, Pyongyang’s response has remained frosty. After years of hardline North Korea policy under... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3322503/why-military-independence-us-could-be-seouls-best-chance-peace?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3322503/why-military-independence-us-could-be-seouls-best-chance-peace?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 21 Aug 2025 21:30:07 +0000 Gabriela Bernal Gabriela Bernal Barely five months into his second term, US President Donald Trump’s “spectacular military success” in striking Iranian nuclear facilities reveals a stark contradiction at the heart of his foreign policy approach. While the US leader campaigned on ending wars through negotiation, his swift pivot from diplomacy to destruction in Iran carries profound implications for the decades-long nuclear stand-off with North Korea. The weekend strikes against three Iranian nuclear facilities, which Trump... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3315635/how-trumps-iran-strikes-doomed-his-north-korea-strategy?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3315635/how-trumps-iran-strikes-doomed-his-north-korea-strategy?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 26 Jun 2025 01:30:08 +0000 Gabriela Bernal Gabriela Bernal With South Korea’s presidential election less than two weeks away, the stakes couldn’t be higher for a nation at a critical crossroads. Since former president Yoon Suk-yeol’s impeachment for declaring martial law in December, the country desperately needs leadership to restore domestic stability and navigate increasingly complex geopolitics. Society remains deeply divided, with massive demonstrations that support or oppose Yoon. The political turmoil extends to the ruling People Power Party... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3311272/after-hardline-yoon-south-korea-needs-more-balanced-foreign-policy?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3311272/after-hardline-yoon-south-korea-needs-more-balanced-foreign-policy?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 25 May 2025 21:30:08 +0000 Russia won’t be the only state delighted by the disastrous meeting between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday. North Korea – given its status as a direct party to the conflict in Ukraine – is likely very pleased with the colossal collapse of talks between Washington and Kyiv. Dismissing Zelensky as being “not ready for peace”, the US president may now choose to double down on negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin instead to try to end the... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3300242/why-trump-putin-ukraine-peace-deal-could-be-good-news-north-korea?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3300242/why-trump-putin-ukraine-peace-deal-could-be-good-news-north-korea?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 02 Mar 2025 21:30:08 +0000 The unthinkable has happened in South Korea – its president declared martial law in a move that evoked traumas from the past. According to President Yoon Suk-yeol, the move was necessary due to the presence of “anti-state” and “pro-North Korean” elements among opposition politicians. Although the decree lasted only six hours, it was enough to shake the country to its core. The last time martial law was declared in the country was over four decades ago. The path to democracy was a hard-won battle... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3290223/seoul-must-stop-using-north-korea-threat-excuse-suppress-democracy?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3290223/seoul-must-stop-using-north-korea-threat-excuse-suppress-democracy?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 12 Dec 2024 08:30:08 +0000 Last week, South Korea and Ukraine accused North Korea of deploying troops to support Russia in its war in Ukraine. North Korea denies doing so. This week, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin said there was “evidence” of North Korean troops in Russia, but that what they are doing there “is left to be seen”. Pyongyang sending troops to fight in Ukraine would signal North Korea’s evolution from an isolated pariah state to a tangible threat to international security – one that can directly influence... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3283321/north-korean-intervention-ukraine-last-thing-world-needs?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3283321/north-korean-intervention-ukraine-last-thing-world-needs?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 24 Oct 2024 21:30:08 +0000 On August 15, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol unveiled his government’s new approach to unification. While the goal for unification is enshrined in South Korea’s constitution, previous administrations have aimed for a gradual process built on foundations of trust, reconciliation and cooperation. In contrast, Yoon’s policy appears to centre on a singular objective: a unified Korea based on South Korea’s liberal democratic system. In his Liberation Day speech, Yoon outlined three key tasks to... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3275176/south-koreas-latest-unification-effort-just-more-provocation?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3275176/south-koreas-latest-unification-effort-just-more-provocation?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 22 Aug 2024 01:30:09 +0000 The long-awaited summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un finally took place on Wednesday, with the two sides signing a new comprehensive strategic partnership agreement. While the two countries have consistently been deepening ties since the start of the conflict in Ukraine, this latest meeting could result in a level of military cooperation with global repercussions. Putin’s visit came nine months after he held a summit with Kim Jong-un in the Russian... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3267325/how-far-will-putin-and-kim-take-mutual-assistance-face-aggression?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3267325/how-far-will-putin-and-kim-take-mutual-assistance-face-aggression?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 21 Jun 2024 21:30:08 +0000 Tensions on the Korean peninsula are once again heightened due to dangerous tit-for-tat behaviour between the two Koreas. On Sunday, South Korea announced its resumption of loudspeaker propaganda broadcasts aimed at the North, a day after the latter launched more than 300 trash-carrying balloons across the border. Pyongyang had previously warned it would launch “100 times” the filth if activists in South Korea continued sending balloons containing anti-North Korean propaganda over the border.... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3266247/wise-south-korea-would-rise-above-norths-trash-balloons?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3266247/wise-south-korea-would-rise-above-norths-trash-balloons?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 12 Jun 2024 21:30:08 +0000 The United Nations must reassess its sanctions-driven approach in dealing with North Korea. After nearly two decades of this approach, Russia has potentially dealt the final blow to the UN’s sanctions system by shutting down the panel of experts responsible for looking into breaches of the sanctions on Pyongyang. The panel, established in the wake of North Korea’s second nuclear test in 2009, has acknowledged the shortcomings of sanctions over the years and even their negative impact on the... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3257704/uns-sanctions-fuelled-approach-north-korea-must-end?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3257704/uns-sanctions-fuelled-approach-north-korea-must-end?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 03 Apr 2024 21:30:15 +0000 A mere two weeks into the new year and the Korean peninsula has seen major, worrying developments that are raising concerns of a possible resumption of war. North Korea says it has abandoned the goal of unifying with South Korea and instead sees relations with the South as that between “belligerent states”. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un took things one step further when he called for North Korea’s constitution to be revised to define South Korea as its “invariable principal enemy” and to... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3248772/kim-jong-uns-move-drop-korea-reunification-goal-raises-fears-return-war?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3248772/kim-jong-uns-move-drop-korea-reunification-goal-raises-fears-return-war?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 20 Jan 2024 01:30:12 +0000 A new, dangerous layer has been added to the already tense situation on the Korean peninsula. Both Seoul and Pyongyang have successfully launched their first spy satellites, boosting their ability to surveil each other. North Korea launched its satellite on November 21 after two failed attempts earlier this year. Although South Korean intelligence claims that Russian help was responsible for the successful launch, evidence to support this has not been made available. North Korea also announced... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3243941/spy-satellite-launches-korean-peninsula-bode-ill-peace?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3243941/spy-satellite-launches-korean-peninsula-bode-ill-peace?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 07 Dec 2023 01:30:14 +0000 This week marks the 70th anniversary of the signing of the Korean Armistice Agreement. While many assume this document ended the war on July 27, 1953, it in fact only served to end the fighting. The actual war drags on with no end in sight. Today, most consider the security situation and the division of the peninsula normal, and the international community seems to have become comfortable with the status quo. Such perceptions, however, come with major risks, since every year that goes by without... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3228815/korean-war-must-formally-end-break-dangerous-nuclear-impasse?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3228815/korean-war-must-formally-end-break-dangerous-nuclear-impasse?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 26 Jul 2023 17:00:15 +0000 The Yoon Suk-yeol government in South Korea says it wants to “foster a sustainable peace” on the Korean peninsula. That’s according to the administration’s recently published national security strategy, which outlines three main objectives: enhancing the safety of its citizens, establishing peace on the peninsula and preparing for future unification, and laying the foundation for East Asia’s prosperity. Although these goals are worth striving for, the methods proposed by the Yoon government may... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3224073/south-koreas-national-security-strategy-recycles-failed-hardline-approaches-pyongyang?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3224073/south-koreas-national-security-strategy-recycles-failed-hardline-approaches-pyongyang?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 15 Jun 2023 16:30:18 +0000 After the recent summit between US President Joe Biden and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, questions are being raised about the future of diplomacy on the Korean peninsula. The priority at the meeting was clearly to discuss military measures to counter North Korea, instead of finding ways to revive diplomacy and dialogue. Yoon emphasised that the policy line being pursued by Washington and Seoul was aimed at achieving peace “through the superiority of overwhelming forces and not a false... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3219407/biden-and-yoon-reach-overwhelming-power-against-pyongyang-chances-peace-korean-peninsula-take-hit?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3219407/biden-and-yoon-reach-overwhelming-power-against-pyongyang-chances-peace-korean-peninsula-take-hit?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 08 May 2023 19:30:08 +0000 South Korea has played down potentially damaging reports that its ally, the United States, spied on the office of President Yoon Suk-yeol – instead agreeing with the US that most of the leaked information was fabricated, as Yoon prepares to visit US President Joe Biden in two weeks. Both opposition and ruling party officials in South Korea reacted with strong criticism after leaked documents suggested the US eavesdropped on conversations at the South Korean presidential office last month. Dozens... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3216809/south-koreas-steadfast-us-policy-dealt-blow-reports-spying?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3216809/south-koreas-steadfast-us-policy-dealt-blow-reports-spying?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 13 Apr 2023 19:30:15 +0000 Tensions are rising again on the Korean peninsula with US-South Korea military drills under way. North Korea has responded by firing missiles before and during the 11-day exercise, raising fears of a direct military confrontation. It appears that the balanced diplomatic strategy South Korea has long pursued is being increasingly neglected. Given its complex geopolitical position, Seoul has had to strike a fine balance to ensure its long-term stability and security. Under the previous Moon Jae-in... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3213609/kim-jong-un-fires-more-missiles-and-threats-south-koreas-hardline-strategy-failing?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3213609/kim-jong-un-fires-more-missiles-and-threats-south-koreas-hardline-strategy-failing?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 17 Mar 2023 00:15:13 +0000 Earlier this week, Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg visited South Korea to discuss common security challenges, including the North Korean issue. The meeting was condemned by the North, which has vowed a strong response to Seoul’s increasingly hardline policies. During the meeting, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol asked Stoltenberg and the transatlantic security alliance to play more “active roles” to deter North Korea’s “reckless provocations”. The Nato chief invited Yoon to attend... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3208737/south-korea-must-reach-diplomacy-not-nuclear-arms-defuse-tensions-north?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3208737/south-korea-must-reach-diplomacy-not-nuclear-arms-defuse-tensions-north?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 03 Feb 2023 19:30:09 +0000 South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol last week publicly floated the possibility of the country acquiring nuclear weapons if the security situation on the Korean peninsula continues to worsen. “If the problem becomes more serious, South Korea could have tactical nuclear weapons deployed or secure its own nuclear weapons,” he said, adding that “if things turn out this way, we will be able to acquire [nuclear weapons] quickly thanks to our science and technological capabilities”. He also ordered... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3206988/why-south-korea-should-not-go-down-nuclear-weapons-route?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3206988/why-south-korea-should-not-go-down-nuclear-weapons-route?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 17 Jan 2023 19:30:11 +0000 The year 2022 has seen major shifts in the wrong direction on the Korean peninsula, with the North and South engaging in a tit-for-tat escalation campaign that continues to this day. With the war in Ukraine and intensifying US-China rivalry, the opportunity has arisen for North Korea to more closely align itself with old-time allies in Beijing and Moscow. Meanwhile, levels of trilateral cooperation not seen in years were also observed south of the 38th parallel between Washington, Seoul and... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3204706/north-and-south-korea-must-return-peaceful-dialogue-after-year-tit-tat-escalation-raises-nuclear?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3204706/north-and-south-korea-must-return-peaceful-dialogue-after-year-tit-tat-escalation-raises-nuclear?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 28 Dec 2022 19:30:10 +0000 Tensions have been high on the Korean peninsula for well over a month and things seem to continue going in the wrong direction. Further proof came on Monday morning, when North Korea vowed “sustained, resolute and overwhelming practical military measures” in response to US-South Korea military drills. Tensions reached new heights last week, when both Koreas fired missiles across the Northern Limit Line into each other’s territorial waters. After this, North Korea conducted a series of ballistic... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3198767/us-south-korea-should-ease-their-military-drills-keep-peace-korean-peninsula?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3198767/us-south-korea-should-ease-their-military-drills-keep-peace-korean-peninsula?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 09 Nov 2022 19:30:09 +0000 South Korea’s President Yoon Suk-yeol this week unveiled details of his “audacious plan” for North Korea, which aims to offer Pyongyang economic benefits in exchange for concrete steps to denuclearisation. The problem is, however, that such plans have been tried previously, and have failed. This time, too, the chances of success appear slim. In his Liberation Day speech on August 15, Yoon suggested improving “North Korea’s economy and its people’s livelihoods in stages if the North ceases the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/asia/article/3189087/economic-incentives-will-never-be-enough-north-korea?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/asia/article/3189087/economic-incentives-will-never-be-enough-north-korea?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 18 Aug 2022 01:15:17 +0000