https://www.scmp.com/rss/513883/feed James David Spellman, a graduate of Oxford University, is principal of Strategic Communications LLC, a consulting firm based in Washington, DC. en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com James David Spellman James David Spellman The fraying of the ceasefire in the US-Israel war against Iran reflects grim patterns of history. Truces are often doomed because they focus on stopping battle-related violence and rarely begin to address the underlying struggles that ignited hostilities. A pause without a shared common endgame often resets the battlefield as reasons harden for prolonging warfare. Viable political solutions seldom follow and take hold for peace to endure. Over the past decade, we’ve seen the perils. The Minsk... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3349904/given-history-ceasefires-its-no-surprise-us-iran-truce-fraying?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3349904/given-history-ceasefires-its-no-surprise-us-iran-truce-fraying?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 15 Apr 2026 12:30:08 +0000 James David Spellman James David Spellman As war in the Middle East escalates, the financial fallout extends beyond energy price and supply-chain disruptions. Vulnerabilities in the US$3 trillion-plus global private-credit market are accelerating, driving investors to safe havens, while global finance undergoes a rapid transformation. China, the world’s largest creditor to developing countries, will feel the repercussions. This is the first real stress test confronting the vast lending empire. A meltdown was inevitable; only the timing... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3347602/why-global-private-credit-meltdown-would-hit-china-hard?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3347602/why-global-private-credit-meltdown-would-hit-china-hard?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 25 Mar 2026 08:30:09 +0000 James David Spellman James David Spellman It’s no surprise that US President Donald Trump came out swinging after the Supreme Court’s stunning rebuke struck at the core of his economic agenda. It delivered his most consequential legal setback by blocking him from invoking emergency powers to unilaterally impose sweeping tariffs on trading partners. The International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), enacted in 1977, allows the president to regulate economic transactions after declaring a national emergency in response to an... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3344413/despite-supreme-court-ruling-trump-has-legal-cards-tariffs-hand?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3344413/despite-supreme-court-ruling-trump-has-legal-cards-tariffs-hand?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 24 Feb 2026 12:30:07 +0000 James David Spellman James David Spellman Pension and sovereign wealth funds across Asia are reassessing the role of US Treasuries in their portfolios as alternative equity and fixed-income assets deliver higher yields and broader diversification of risks. Recent divestments by Sweden’s Alecta and Denmark’s AkademikerPension have drawn the attention of Asia’s investment managers, even as Norway’s Government Pension Fund Global – the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund – has moved in the opposite direction by increasing its holdings.... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3343060/why-asias-sovereign-wealth-funds-are-rethinking-us-treasuries?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3343060/why-asias-sovereign-wealth-funds-are-rethinking-us-treasuries?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 15 Feb 2026 08:30:11 +0000 James David Spellman James David Spellman The largest wealth transfer in history will accelerate the tilt of economic influence to the East as investment priorities change and women – who are set to inherit a growing share of assets – gain financial clout. The implications will ripple across geopolitics, financial markets and fiscal policies. Financial research firm Cerulli predicts that globally, an estimated US$124 trillion is expected to change hands by 2048. The 2023 Hurun Wealth Report estimated that heirs in China will receive... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3340166/how-generational-wealth-transfer-will-reshape-chinas-economy?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3340166/how-generational-wealth-transfer-will-reshape-chinas-economy?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 20 Jan 2026 08:30:08 +0000 James David Spellman James David Spellman China’s consumers are increasingly favouring domestic brands over Western imports, reshaping a global luxury market that was valued at US$327.5 billion in 2024. Their preference for domestic labels is upsetting the old hierarchy of Europe’s luxury houses, historically regarded as the pinnacle of taste, craftsmanship and prestige. This shift is taking place amid a decline in the Chinese luxury market, which was down more than 18 per cent in 2024 to around 350 billion yuan (US$50 billion). The... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3338150/how-chinas-home-grown-luxury-labels-took-western-brands?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3338150/how-chinas-home-grown-luxury-labels-took-western-brands?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 31 Dec 2025 08:32:43 +0000 James David Spellman James David Spellman Gales of creative destruction will sweep away folly and naivety next year as they batter what appears to be the largest boom in modern history – the scramble to dominate artificial intelligence (AI) driven by US-China rivalry. The market debut of China’s Moore Threads last week, its shares more than quintupling on the first day, underscores the feverish momentum. Speculative assumptions guiding trillions of US dollars in AI investments are colliding with real-world obstacles. Escalating costs,... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3335293/why-2026-will-be-year-ai-hype-collides-reality?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3335293/why-2026-will-be-year-ai-hype-collides-reality?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 07 Dec 2025 12:30:09 +0000 James David Spellman James David Spellman JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon’s remark that “when you see one cockroach, there are probably more” is a blunt reminder of the global financial crisis in 2008. At the time, a flood of bad mortgages had revealed a tenuous labyrinth of complex, highly vulnerable financial products that saw some US investment banks collapse and equity markets struggle for six years to recover losses. Evidence is mounting that we are approaching danger again, with revelations of bad debt exposure for regional and... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3329661/bad-debt-cockroaches-signal-new-threats-global-economy?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3329661/bad-debt-cockroaches-signal-new-threats-global-economy?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 21 Oct 2025 21:30:08 +0000 James David Spellman James David Spellman Enthusiasm always runs ahead of reality during financial bubbles. Truths are stretched as fantasy takes flight. Envy, overconfidence, greed and the rush of gambling kindle a herd mentality. This cycle is well along for artificial intelligence (AI). Caution lights are flashing as equity valuations run far ahead of cash flows. At this point, an impresario usually insists that “this time is different”. These days it’s Amazon founder Jeff Bezos. It’s a “good” kind of bubble, he argues. “When the... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3328095/markets-are-paying-little-heed-flashing-lights-ai-bubbles-danger?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3328095/markets-are-paying-little-heed-flashing-lights-ai-bubbles-danger?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 08 Oct 2025 12:30:07 +0000 James David Spellman James David Spellman Google’s recently announced blockchain for financial institutions is the latest move in the battle to dominate the infrastructure for processing global transactions in bitcoin, digitised currency, stablecoins and tokenised assets. While government leaders are obsessed with semiconductors, the deeper and more critical issue could be the type of blockchain that will prevail in capital markets. The winner will shape whether financial risks shrink through efficiency and transparency or expand. With... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3325126/whats-stake-global-markets-google-ventures-blockchain?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3325126/whats-stake-global-markets-google-ventures-blockchain?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 16 Sep 2025 08:30:09 +0000 James David Spellman James David Spellman Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang secured an apparent reprieve from US President Donald Trump, allowing the company to resume sales of its H20 chips to China. The chipmaker’s shares jumped about 4 per cent on the news. Nvidia recently became the first public company to be worth US$4 trillion; one analyst sees its market capitalisation increasing to US$5 trillion. Advanced Micro Devices expects to ship to China soon, as well. These are major wins in the torrent of constantly changing tariffs, fraught... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3318376/china-us-target-trumps-chip-policies-miss-mark?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3318376/china-us-target-trumps-chip-policies-miss-mark?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 16 Jul 2025 21:30:09 +0000 James David Spellman James David Spellman Fledgling artificial intelligence (AI) models, the opacity of shadow banking and the euphoria over cryptocurrency are new fault lines in global finance, emerging as dangers that are more dispersed and harder to contain than those of the last crisis. Without coordinated action, we risk stumbling into another systemic breakdown, one that no financial institution or government can resolve alone. Yet, world leaders, overwhelmed by tariff flare-ups and escalating wars, are unlikely to champion needed... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3315384/3-spectres-haunting-global-finance-must-be-seen-its-too-late?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3315384/3-spectres-haunting-global-finance-must-be-seen-its-too-late?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 25 Jun 2025 14:30:08 +0000 James David Spellman James David Spellman Middle and major powers are using trade, investment and technology as weapons of influence in pursuit of triangular diplomacy, a stratagem of Cold War realpolitik. However, the strengths of this approach – agility, ambiguity and tactical scope – hide the dangers of entanglements that escalate instability. A nation triangulates by balancing and manoeuvring between two other powers, building leverage, reducing dependency and becoming indispensable to multiple sides without fully committing to... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3311984/triangular-diplomacy-tricky-tightrope-walk-asia-pacific-leaders?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3311984/triangular-diplomacy-tricky-tightrope-walk-asia-pacific-leaders?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 03 Jun 2025 21:30:07 +0000 The global military-industrial complex is tightening its grip on geopolitics. China is feeling this shift as its leaders and geopolitical rivals pursue economic security to strengthen defence-critical industries while amassing forces to challenge old rules of engagement and long-established spheres of influence. These realities reflect a world engulfed in warfare. More than 110 armed conflicts are under way. Varying widely in scale, some are recent events while others began some 50 years ago,... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3305797/how-chinas-military-industrial-complex-reshaping-geopolitics?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3305797/how-chinas-military-industrial-complex-reshaping-geopolitics?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 13 Apr 2025 21:30:08 +0000 The sharp fall in US share prices underscores why financial markets will be US President Donald Trump’s greatest nemesis. Recession fears are back in play amid aggressive, stop-start trade wars which economists increasingly forecast will rekindle inflation. Investors’ behaviour promises to thwart Trump’s agenda, just as they have forced past administrations to scramble for rescues during the dotcom bubble bust and the global financial crisis. Executive orders, admonishments, arm-twisting and... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3303144/trumps-executive-orders-will-be-no-match-markets-grip-fear?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3303144/trumps-executive-orders-will-be-no-match-markets-grip-fear?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 28 Mar 2025 08:30:07 +0000 China and the rest of the world remain thirsty for oil. That means the commodity’s central and volatile role in geopolitics continues, with decades-old realities driving economics, trade, alliances and conflicts for the countries dependent on fossil fuels. Yet, change lies ahead. Last month’s short-lived rally underscores oil’s mercurial clout. Brent crude hit a four-month high of US$82 a barrel after the United States expanded sanctions on Russia and Iran. Oil-supply news shocks continue to... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3297479/oil-still-runs-world-its-role-geopolitics-changing?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3297479/oil-still-runs-world-its-role-geopolitics-changing?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 06 Feb 2025 08:30:07 +0000 Leaders in government, business, academia and philanthropy convene in Davos, Switzerland, this week to sort out the world’s challenges, including the lofty ambition of “reimagining growth”. But what novel approaches could stimulate long-term, sustainable growth if government finances are strained and the wildly euphoric hopes for artificial intelligence prove to be limited? The angst around Davos is understandable. Even though equity markets hit record levels and a much-feared recession was... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3295042/can-world-leaders-davos-truly-succeed-reimagining-growth?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3295042/can-world-leaders-davos-truly-succeed-reimagining-growth?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 19 Jan 2025 08:30:08 +0000 China and its rival superpowers face tough years ahead as decades-old drivers of growth worldwide lose steam, the tailwinds promised by artificial intelligence prove more illusory than real and uncertainties multiply amid geopolitical conflagrations involving nuclear-armed adversaries. Those difficulties add to deep-seated challenges that are kindling societal discontent. The ageing population is one. This global demographic challenge will further slow economies after tepid growth as governments... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3291659/why-worlds-economic-powers-could-find-2025-year-great-struggle?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3291659/why-worlds-economic-powers-could-find-2025-year-great-struggle?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 26 Dec 2024 12:30:08 +0000 China and its rival superpowers face tough years ahead as decades-old drivers of growth worldwide lose steam, the tailwinds promised by artificial intelligence prove more illusory than real and uncertainties multiply amid geopolitical conflagrations involving nuclear-armed adversaries. Those difficulties add to deep-seated challenges that are kindling societal discontent. The ageing population is one. This global demographic challenge will further slow economies after tepid growth as governments... https://www.scmp.com/plus/article/3292018/why-worlds-economic-powers-could-find-2025-year-great-struggle?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/plus/article/3292018/why-worlds-economic-powers-could-find-2025-year-great-struggle?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 23 Dec 2024 09:17:18 +0000 Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election ushers in an America that will swashbuckle through the world like brawny sailors on shore leave. We can expect his administration to be an emotional whirlwind of guttural, visceral attacks hurled spontaneously, rather than four years of measured, calculated approaches anchored in deeply grounded ideas about the workings of statecraft and a rules-based international order. “America first”, he swears, is his lodestar. His last term as... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3286120/trumps-rise-signals-end-us-global-leadership?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3286120/trumps-rise-signals-end-us-global-leadership?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 13 Nov 2024 14:30:08 +0000 James David Spellman James David Spellman Central bankers, regulators and entrepreneurs are on a fast track to transform global payment systems into digital expressways that will include tokens and e-currencies. The goal is to provide instantaneous and secure transactions worldwide at little expense while eradicating settlement uncertainties. Group of 20 nations have set an ambitious goal: three-quarters of cross-border payments will be made available to recipients within one hour in 2027. The vision is as revolutionary as that for... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3284042/why-digitising-financial-pipelines-essential-global-prosperity?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3284042/why-digitising-financial-pipelines-essential-global-prosperity?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 28 Oct 2024 08:30:07 +0000 As war in the Middle East escalates with Israel’s invasion of Lebanon and Iran’s counter-attack, the global economy faces fresh recession fears after a year of remarkable strength and investor complacency even as Israeli forces swept through Gaza. The past week tells us the balance of power in the Middle East is fundamentally changing and long-held assumptions of geopolitical risks are being swept aside. The same holds true for the global economy as the severity of a pullback will depend on the... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3280783/how-wider-middle-east-war-could-bring-world-recession?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3280783/how-wider-middle-east-war-could-bring-world-recession?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 04 Oct 2024 21:30:07 +0000 Robust international rules are needed to govern ownership and use of genetic codes so that all of humanity benefits. This would help close the North-South gap, cure ills denying us good health and address food shortages exacerbated by climate change. Allowing the status quo to continue promises greater inequities while worsening risks of widespread harm. Several factors are blocking a global agreement to improve access to digital sequence information (DSI) and equitably distribute its benefits.... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3279843/can-world-come-together-share-benefits-genetic-data?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3279843/can-world-come-together-share-benefits-genetic-data?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 25 Sep 2024 12:30:08 +0000 James David Spellman James David Spellman Central bankers gathering soon at Jackson Hole, Wyoming will focus on piloting a “soft landing”, but they need to give more attention to how both their roles and tools must evolve amid the frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI), the pressing need for digital currencies to streamline transactions and mounting disputes over how trajectories of monetary policy should be communicated. Investors will be keenly focused on whether the keynote speech of US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3274709/why-jackson-hole-chance-central-banks-look-beyond-horizon?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3274709/why-jackson-hole-chance-central-banks-look-beyond-horizon?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 21 Aug 2024 08:30:09 +0000 Recent negotiations on commercial deep-sea mining failed to make progress on a code that would govern exploitation of minerals in international waters while safeguarding marine ecosystems that sustain life on earth. Delegates agreed to little that would address major disputes, from the scope of regulation to equitable distribution of mining revenue to environmental protections. Meanwhile, the International Seabed Authority (ISA) – an intergovernmental body charged with regulating exploration and... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3272934/worlds-seabed-authority-needs-reform-puts-planet-first?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3272934/worlds-seabed-authority-needs-reform-puts-planet-first?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 05 Aug 2024 21:30:10 +0000 Central banks worldwide must rapidly escalate their generative artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities as they confront a new generation of risks and opportunities generated by technologies being designed to imitate human cognition. That is one conclusion from a new study by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) examining how AI abilities – amassing unfathomable volumes of data and instantaneously performing unimaginable calculations – are revolutionising global finance, in ways similar... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3268675/why-central-banks-must-quickly-conscientiously-reckon-ai?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3268675/why-central-banks-must-quickly-conscientiously-reckon-ai?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 02 Jul 2024 08:30:09 +0000 Europe could be turning to the right, according to evidence from European Parliament elections held over the weekend to determine which political forces will guide the European Union over the next five years. Beijing can expect tougher times in Brussels. At the same time, it should see more opportunities for bilateral deals with European Union member states rather than the pan-EU responses to trade, security and economic conflicts that have dogged China-EU relations in recent years. Provisional... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3266124/europes-rightward-lurch-offers-china-mixed-bag?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3266124/europes-rightward-lurch-offers-china-mixed-bag?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 11 Jun 2024 12:30:13 +0000 Elation swept across Washington as news broke that two young giant pandas will arrive from China by the end of the year. Six months ago, the city was heartbroken when a couple of pandas and their cub returned to China. Afterwards, the world seemed a darker place, tormented by the grim realities of power politics and the bitter conflict between the US and China over trade, technology and geostrategic manoeuvres. This gesture of soft power is a sign that Beijing does not want tensions with... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3264965/us-election-year-pandas-bring-joy-wont-move-needle-china-relations?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3264965/us-election-year-pandas-bring-joy-wont-move-needle-china-relations?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 03 Jun 2024 08:30:08 +0000 Chinese firms recently won the lion’s share of licences for oil and gas exploration that Iraq solicited to wean its power plants off natural gas from Iran. The news demonstrates China’s drive to secure energy supplies as it struggles to reverse slowing growth at home. Beijing is seizing opportunities in the Middle East left by the West’s conflicting ambitions to deter foes and reassure allies. Wang Yi, China’s chief diplomat, has doubled down on the government’s pro-Palestinian... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3263448/chinas-rush-fill-power-vacuum-iraq-could-backfire?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3263448/chinas-rush-fill-power-vacuum-iraq-could-backfire?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 21 May 2024 12:30:18 +0000 The Bretton Woods system turns 80 in July. Many agree that its moorings are buckling. Its institutions are increasingly unable to manage global economic crises as its founding powers adjust to the rise of China and India while the entanglements of interdependence multiply and geostrategic tensions thwart cooperation. The world order created in 1944 by 44 Allied nations sought to help countries recover from the devastation of World War II while sanctioning the hegemony of the dollar – its value... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3261705/why-world-needs-bretton-woods-20?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3261705/why-world-needs-bretton-woods-20?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 08 May 2024 08:35:39 +0000 The rapid build-up of public debt was on the minds of finance ministers gathered in Washington recently for the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. With the US Federal Reserve likely to keep interest rates higher for longer, inflation stubbornly unyielding worldwide, and the dollar’s rally, pressures are mounting for urgent relief for heavily indebted low-income countries. The solutions that surfaced in Washington focused on retooling current approaches while... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3260088/imf-world-bank-must-do-more-defuse-bomb-poor-nations-debt?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3260088/imf-world-bank-must-do-more-defuse-bomb-poor-nations-debt?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 25 Apr 2024 12:30:13 +0000 Flush with capital, investors throughout the Arab world are frantically investing in technology and infrastructure to replace oil as a locomotive of growth. China is among those swept up in the gold rush, jockeying for capital and access to markets as the world’s second-largest economy leverages its relations with Arab nations as a counterweight to the West. This scramble to broaden and deepen Sino-Arab economic ties involves the biggest players in the Gulf, including 10 of the region’s largest... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3258388/chinas-relations-middle-east-gold-mine-or-minefield-ahead?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3258388/chinas-relations-middle-east-gold-mine-or-minefield-ahead?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 10 Apr 2024 21:30:30 +0000 Middle powers dominate the headlines. They entangle superpowers in wars. Their friendshoring opportunities lure global companies. They challenge unfair trade practices, press for climate change mitigation and seek redress for humanitarian wrongs. Their leaders anxiously court each other to amass power through alliances. Their monopolies over critical resources roil the global economy. Some have forced unprecedented migration from their lands while others have offered shelter to diasporas. This... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/asia/article/3255194/era-middle-powers-yes-and-no?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/asia/article/3255194/era-middle-powers-yes-and-no?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 15 Mar 2024 08:30:12 +0000 Reforming China’s securities markets to lure back investors – amid a three-year rout that wiped out US$6 trillion as foreigners ran away – will require unprecedented changes. These range from greater transparency in companies’ financial statements and more rigorous oversight to fewer controls over local ownership. Those reforms, though, will fail if Beijing’s “common prosperity” policy steps up efforts to sweep away free-market tenets and stifle financial innovation, trends that drove... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/asia/article/3253721/china-needs-drastic-reforms-win-back-investor-trust-and-confidence?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/asia/article/3253721/china-needs-drastic-reforms-win-back-investor-trust-and-confidence?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 03 Mar 2024 06:45:09 +0000 Former US president Donald Trump’s promise to levy new tariffs in his free-form stump speeches – “an eye for an eye, a tariff for a tariff” – is unsettling to CEOs and government leaders as they envision how he could upend their ambitions if he returns to power next January. They have good reason. Tariffs depress trade, investment and output by raising costs while reducing demand and provoking retaliation. Policy shocks heighten uncertainty, which causes businesses to rethink decisions on... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3251083/trumps-tariff-threat-signals-no-relief-us-china-trade-pain?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3251083/trumps-tariff-threat-signals-no-relief-us-china-trade-pain?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 07 Feb 2024 11:30:15 +0000 Bankers at the World Economic Forum in Davos are the latest to warn that the sovereign debt of low-income countries has reached a breaking point as high interest rates, the pandemic’s aftermath, sluggish growth worldwide, and a strong dollar persist – troubles that forced Ethiopia’s default last December. Beyond a general agreement that the framework for debt restructuring is failing while the humanitarian costs escalate, there is a lack of viable solutions. Too much faith is being placed in... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3249476/debt-deals-must-become-part-countrys-economic-plan?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3249476/debt-deals-must-become-part-countrys-economic-plan?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 24 Jan 2024 08:30:15 +0000 Trade ministers heading to Abu Dhabi next month for the 13th WTO Ministerial Conference are unlikely to revive the moribund World Trade Organization unless they narrow their ambitions and focus on reworking the trade referee’s core function: dispute resolution. Time is working against their unwieldy agenda. The window of opportunity will close by spring when US electioneering heats up and China’s eagerness for rapprochement wanes with its economy set to rebound. Reformers aim to transform the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3247445/how-overreaching-reformers-could-doom-wto?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3247445/how-overreaching-reformers-could-doom-wto?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 08 Jan 2024 09:30:11 +0000 The truism that the year ahead struggles under the past year’s yoke is even more the case for 2024. The events that dominated the last 11 months – from wars in Ukraine and the Middle East to US-China trade tensions to central banks’ anti-inflation campaigns – will remain drivers of geopolitics and the economic outlook. Unforeseen disasters, political missteps and corporate upheavals will intervene, too. There will also almost assuredly be financial windfalls for some in the Year of the Wood... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3244123/new-year-same-old-yes-chance-generational-transformation?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3244123/new-year-same-old-yes-chance-generational-transformation?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 07 Dec 2023 21:30:17 +0000 China’s outlook is complicated by the rise of financial instruments that help investors manage risks in good times but accelerate downturns in bear markets, as the global financial crisis showed 15 years ago. A recent court decision in Shanghai on a case of asset-backed security fraud warns of potential dangers. Asset-backed securities pool similar financial obligations – such as loans, credit card receivables or aircraft leases – into tradeable bond-like securities. Property, vehicles or other... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3237491/next-subprime-crisis-brewing-chinas-property-market?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3237491/next-subprime-crisis-brewing-chinas-property-market?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 12 Oct 2023 07:30:18 +0000 Once upon a time, when Covid-19 forced the world to shut down and all seemed bleak, a Chinese panda in an American zoo gave birth to a “Little Miracle” – a pink, hairless and blind cub the size of a stick of butter. For a world in isolation, for people feeling lost, inept, mortal and fearful of destiny, the coming of Xiao Qi Ji – which is Mandarin for “Little Miracle” – on August 21, 2020, revived a feeling of hope and optimism. We learned the baby was coming mere days before the birth – we... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3236146/panda-diplomacy-washington-needs-another-little-miracle?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3236146/panda-diplomacy-washington-needs-another-little-miracle?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 29 Sep 2023 21:30:16 +0000 As China’s exports tumble for the fourth straight month and the yuan hits a 16-year low, will the country’s slowdown leave the US economy unscathed? Or will the contraction reverberate worldwide, a contagion heralding a lengthy recession? Current thinking downplays China’s economic threats to the United States. Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman, for example, asserts that “America has remarkably little financial or trade exposure to China’s problems”. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen concurs. This... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3234759/chinas-receding-economic-tide-will-ground-all-boats-including-us?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3234759/chinas-receding-economic-tide-will-ground-all-boats-including-us?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 18 Sep 2023 21:30:20 +0000 This Labour Day weekend marks summer’s unofficial end for Americans and the shift into high gear for the 2024 US presidential race. With partisan loyalty high, a sharply divided electorate means a fierce and costly duel for a sliver of swing voters in battleground states – a likely replay of 2020 without the pandemic-crippled economy. Being “tough on China” will again figure in campaign rhetoric. Clashes over Taiwan, trade, relations with Russia and the US military presence in Asia will... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3232833/domestic-politics-will-take-sting-out-us-china-tensions-2024-presidential-race-heats?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3232833/domestic-politics-will-take-sting-out-us-china-tensions-2024-presidential-race-heats?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 01 Sep 2023 17:00:16 +0000 Microsoft’s recent announcement that it would charge fees for its artificial intelligence (AI) software Copilot is a sign that the future of the global tech economy is being upended – from one dominated by hardware superiority to one powered by an intangible product that is reinventing how we think, work and live. Apple, a major tech competitor, affirmed the importance of software services in its outlook when reporting its third-quarter earnings. Its services segment is delivering record... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3230430/ai-revolutionises-tech-economy-countries-focusing-semiconductor-fabs-may-need-think-again?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3230430/ai-revolutionises-tech-economy-countries-focusing-semiconductor-fabs-may-need-think-again?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 10 Aug 2023 19:30:08 +0000 A deep-sea mining regime is urgently needed now that the world’s smallest island nation is forcing an intergovernmental body to permit seabed extraction of critical metals estimated to be far greater in volume than proven land-based reserves. In June 2021, Nauru applied to the International Seabed Authority (ISA) for a mining permit on behalf of Nauru Ocean Resources Inc (NORI), a subsidiary of Canadian firm Metals Company, triggering an obscure provision under the United Nations Convention on... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3228188/worlds-oceans-need-protection-deep-sea-mining-frenzy-wreaks-permanent-damage?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3228188/worlds-oceans-need-protection-deep-sea-mining-frenzy-wreaks-permanent-damage?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 19 Jul 2023 19:30:08 +0000 Spend a few days at the Cannes Lions International Festival of Creativity, the Oscars of the global advertising industry, and you quickly see three trends – the growing power of TikTok, the feverish race to deploy artificial intelligence (AI), and an eagerness about the Indian market. Above all, you realise China isn’t the presence it should be at Cannes if Beijing hopes to reboot consumption to re-energise a struggling economy burdened by US-China tensions, an ageing population and a property... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3226183/chinas-muted-presence-cannes-advertising-festival-highlights-darker-consumption-outlook?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3226183/chinas-muted-presence-cannes-advertising-festival-highlights-darker-consumption-outlook?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 04 Jul 2023 14:00:13 +0000 Conflict between the West and China is spilling over into attempts to overhaul the Outer Space Treaty, which began governing the use of space in the 1960s when the United States and Soviet Union raced to be first on the moon. Those tensions and broader geopolitical conflicts are dimming the prospects of a new global framework any time soon to address the surge in the use of space for national security, commercial ventures and communications by the more than 80 countries that own satellites. The... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3224100/us-china-rivalry-should-not-mean-giving-global-space-framework?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3224100/us-china-rivalry-should-not-mean-giving-global-space-framework?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 17 Jun 2023 01:15:08 +0000 The recent warning by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang that the United States risks “enormous damage” if it continues to escalate the chips war brings into focus yet again the ill-defined approach of “de-risking” without decoupling. The leaders at the recent Group of 7 (G7) summit affirmed this approach but offered few clues as to what they mean. That has left policymakers and businesses with many questions. What risks do you de-escalate? Given long-running interdependencies, how do you do so? Which... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3222573/western-de-risking-china-without-decoupling-makes-little-sense-and-only-aggravates-tensions?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3222573/western-de-risking-china-without-decoupling-makes-little-sense-and-only-aggravates-tensions?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 02 Jun 2023 17:30:18 +0000 China will be the elephant in the room when leaders of the industrialised democracies known as the Group of Seven meet in Hiroshima from May 19-21 for a summit. From the war in Ukraine and arms build-up in North Korea to climate change mitigation and trade tensions, all roads lead to China. Much of the communique, and news generated by discussions on the summit’s sidelines, will sound familiar, telegraphed by preparatory meetings. But there are also likely to be new moves. These include shifts... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3220416/g7s-long-and-ambitious-summit-agenda-all-roads-lead-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3220416/g7s-long-and-ambitious-summit-agenda-all-roads-lead-china?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 15 May 2023 17:00:07 +0000 US President Joe Biden’s re-election pitch speaks to a moral imperative – defend democracy. America must stand firm against any assault, he insists. His values-based modus vivendi for domestic politics equally drives his approaches to foreign policy, national security and international trade. Whether this and other tenets espoused by his administration constitute a “doctrine” – a cohesive, principles-based approach to world politics that specifies goals, projects values and shows bearing – is up... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3219048/biden-eyes-re-election-how-stable-his-doctrine?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3219048/biden-eyes-re-election-how-stable-his-doctrine?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 03 May 2023 19:00:12 +0000 The spring meetings of the world’s top bankers have ended in Washington with marginal progress towards addressing the global sovereign debt crisis. The numerous reports, agreements and comments sounded alarms for urgent action to ease the dire struggles of low-income countries, but were short on breakthroughs. Support was mustered for interest rate increases while euphemisms were reiterated that made palatable the painful government actions once ominously called – but now taboo – austerity... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3217374/bankers-make-little-progress-global-debt-crisis-currency-risks-loom?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3217374/bankers-make-little-progress-global-debt-crisis-currency-risks-loom?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 20 Apr 2023 13:30:12 +0000