https://www.scmp.com/rss/519108/feed Nikola Mikovic is a freelance journalist, researcher and analyst based in Serbia. He covers mostly the foreign policies of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine. Nikola primarily focuses on Russia’s involvement in the post-Soviet space, Middle East, and the Balkans. en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com Nikola Mikovic Nikola Mikovic Amid the trade war with the United States, the last thing China needs is an economic confrontation with the European Union – Beijing’s major export destination. But with the EU seemingly determined to protect its market by introducing measures that many see as controversial, an economic stand-off appears inevitable. When European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen blamed China last June for showing an “unwillingness to live within the constraints of the rules-based international system”,... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3352160/made-europe-law-sets-stage-economic-showdown-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3352160/made-europe-law-sets-stage-economic-showdown-china?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 04 May 2026 12:30:08 +0000 Nikola Mikovic Nikola Mikovic Since America launched its “major combat operation” against Iran, several Nato allies have distanced themselves from Washington. Now America also risks losing ground in strategically important Southeast Asia to China. Could it face an erosion of influence similar to that suffered by Russia in Central Asia as a result of its “special military operation” in Ukraine? Soon after US President Donald Trump launched massive air and missile strikes on Iran on February 28, it became clear Washington... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3350148/can-iran-fiasco-help-china-edge-out-us-key-arena-southeast-asia?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3350148/can-iran-fiasco-help-china-edge-out-us-key-arena-southeast-asia?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 19 Apr 2026 12:30:09 +0000 Nikola Mikovic Nikola Mikovic Four years after launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia has not achieved any of its strategic goals. The conflict – now lasting longer than the Soviet Union’s fight against Germany in World War II – has only caused Moscow to lose its influence dramatically in the post-Soviet space. Is there a way out of the Kremlin’s Ukraine adventure? In the early days of war, which erupted on February 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that his “special military operation” in... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3344543/russia-and-ukraines-war-attrition-leaves-no-easy-ramp?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3344543/russia-and-ukraines-war-attrition-leaves-no-easy-ramp?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 26 Feb 2026 12:30:08 +0000 Nikola Mikovic Nikola Mikovic US President Donald Trump’s actions in Venezuela and the kidnapping of the country’s president, Nicolas Maduro, have put Russia and China – widely considered two of Caracas’ most important international partners – in a difficult position. If they do not significantly reduce ties with the Latin American nation, they risk Washington’s retaliation. But who has more to lose, Moscow or Beijing? Unlike previous American leaders, Trump has not made any pretence about protecting democracy and human... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3339860/how-trumps-venezuela-strike-humiliated-russia-and-worried-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3339860/how-trumps-venezuela-strike-humiliated-russia-and-worried-china?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 18 Jan 2026 21:30:10 +0000 Nikola Mikovic Nikola Mikovic As Russia remains bogged down in Ukraine, Belarus – the Kremlin’s only ally in Europe – seeks to improve relations with the United States. Unwilling to remain completely dependent on its giant neighbour, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko seems to be attempting to revive his well-known “multi-vector” foreign policy, balancing between Moscow, the West and China. But will he succeed? As the year nears its end, the 71-year-old Belarusian strongman has made several “humanitarian” gestures... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3337348/russian-ally-belarus-courting-both-us-and-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3337348/russian-ally-belarus-courting-both-us-and-china?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 23 Dec 2025 12:30:07 +0000 Nikola Mikovic Nikola Mikovic As a result of Russia’s war in Ukraine, Moscow has lost much of its influence in Central Asia. In the coming months and years, the United States is expected to expand its presence in this strategically important region. But given that China has developed close economic ties with regional actors, how does Beijing view Washington’s ambitions? Coincidentally or not, on November 6, the US and China both held important meetings with Central Asia. In Washington, US President Donald Trump hosted the... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3332544/us-and-china-turn-their-eyes-central-asia-russia-loses-out?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3332544/us-and-china-turn-their-eyes-central-asia-russia-loses-out?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 17 Nov 2025 21:30:10 +0000 Nikola Mikovic Nikola Mikovic Using Richard Nixon’s “madman theory” of international relations, it appears that US President Donald Trump aims to pressure Russia and China into making significant concessions. His decision to impose sanctions on Russia’s oil giants, Rosneft and Lukoil, could not only impact the Russian economy but also the Kremlin’s energy cooperation with Beijing. Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Europe imported substantial amounts of Russian crude. While China has been the top individual... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3330705/how-china-could-make-or-break-us-sanctions-russian-oil?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3330705/how-china-could-make-or-break-us-sanctions-russian-oil?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 29 Oct 2025 08:30:08 +0000 Nikola Mikovic Nikola Mikovic Western sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine have shifted global energy flows, with India and China emerging as prominent buyers of Russian oil. The question is no longer from whom New Delhi and Beijing will purchase energy, but in which currency they will pay. Amid warming ties between India and China following US President Donald Trump’s imposition of sweeping tariffs on Indian exports after New Delhi refused to stop purchasing Russian oil, Indian traders are reportedly asking... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3328799/how-indias-purchases-russian-oil-are-reshaping-global-energy-trade?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3328799/how-indias-purchases-russian-oil-are-reshaping-global-energy-trade?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 14 Oct 2025 08:30:09 +0000 Nikola Mikovic Nikola Mikovic While it has China as its main trade partner and the United States as its primary export destination, Vietnam is strengthening its economic, political and military ties with Russia. The country is carefully balancing its relations with all three powers while trying to get the most economic and strategic benefit from each. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s 2024 visit to Vietnam seems to have been mutually beneficial. On the one hand, it allowed the Kremlin to demonstrate to a Russian audience... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3326571/vietnam-too-important-us-sanction-despite-russia-ties?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3326571/vietnam-too-important-us-sanction-despite-russia-ties?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 28 Sep 2025 12:30:09 +0000 Nikola Mikovic Nikola Mikovic After years of negotiations, Russia has finally secured a binding agreement with China for the construction of the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, a conduit running through Mongolia from the Arctic gas fields of Yamal. Although some Western media see the deal as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “diplomatic victory”, in reality it is Beijing that will be the major beneficiary of the project. Following the Western sanctions on Moscow, imposed as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022,... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3324450/why-china-not-russia-will-gain-most-power-siberia-2-pipeline?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3324450/why-china-not-russia-will-gain-most-power-siberia-2-pipeline?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 10 Sep 2025 08:30:08 +0000 Nikola Mikovic Nikola Mikovic While United States President Donald Trump aims to end – or at least freeze – the Ukraine conflict and portray himself as a peacemaker, China seems to be quietly expanding its influence in Eurasia – a region that Halford Mackinder, “the father of geopolitics”, viewed as the key to global power. The coming Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, scheduled to start on August 31 in Tianjin, is expected to provide another opportunity for Beijing to strengthen its political, economic and military... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3323022/beijing-expands-its-influence-eurasia-trump-triggers-geopolitical-shifts?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3323022/beijing-expands-its-influence-eurasia-trump-triggers-geopolitical-shifts?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 25 Aug 2025 22:30:07 +0000 Nikola Mikovic Nikola Mikovic Ahead of the China-European Union summit, set to take place in Beijing on July 24, the 27-nation bloc seems determined to adopt a firm stance in its relationship with the world’s second-largest economy. While accusing China of aiding Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine, the EU also seeks what it sees as fairer economic relations. But can the growing pressure influence Beijing’s position on Moscow and the Ukraine conflict? In a recent speech, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3317581/eu-doing-itself-no-trade-favours-pushing-china-russia?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3317581/eu-doing-itself-no-trade-favours-pushing-china-russia?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 15 Jul 2025 21:30:07 +0000 Nikola Mikovic Nikola Mikovic As Israel’s war on Iran rages and Russia intensifies its missile and drone strikes on Kyiv, China is quietly expanding its influence in Central Asia. The second China-Central Asia Summit, held in Astana in Kazakhstan last week, was an ideal opportunity for Beijing to strengthen economic and political ties not only with the host country but also with Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan. The Astana Times reported that a total of 58 agreements worth nearly US$25 billion were signed... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3314892/why-chinas-central-asian-footprint-about-get-bigger?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3314892/why-chinas-central-asian-footprint-about-get-bigger?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 22 Jun 2025 08:30:07 +0000 Nikola Mikovic Nikola Mikovic For Russian President Vladimir Putin, celebrating Victory Day on May 9 appears to be a top priority. Unable to defeat Ukraine after more than three years of war, Putin is preparing to bask in the glory of the Soviet Union’s triumph over the Nazi Germany – a victory for which he can claim no credit. This year, leaders of several former Soviet republics – Belarus, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Armenia – and the presidents of Brazil, Burkina Faso,... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3309152/how-china-became-central-russias-victory-day-parade?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3309152/how-china-became-central-russias-victory-day-parade?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 06 May 2025 12:30:08 +0000 The trade war launched by US President Donald Trump against China will undoubtedly have a severe impact on the global economy. Russia hopes to benefit from the tensions between Washington and Beijing, but how realistic is that? Over the years, the United States has been a major market for Chinese goods, with a massive portion of Chinese exports directed there. Meanwhile, China has been among the top purchasers of American products. Excluding its energy trade with China, Russia has played a... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3306163/how-russia-could-game-us-china-trade-tensions?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3306163/how-russia-could-game-us-china-trade-tensions?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 15 Apr 2025 08:30:07 +0000 Amid the reshaping of the global order, trade and tariff wars seem to have become the norm. While such measures are likely to affect exports of Chinese vehicles to the United States and European Union, Beijing can still rely on Russia – a relatively new and growing market that has become an important destination for Chinese car sales. The EU and US have made no secret of their plans to create barriers to the import of Chinese cars. Last October, the 27-nation bloc increased tariffs on Chinese... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3304419/amid-tariff-wars-chinese-carmakers-are-dominating-russian-market?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3304419/amid-tariff-wars-chinese-carmakers-are-dominating-russian-market?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 01 Apr 2025 12:30:08 +0000 The European Union is seeking to expand its presence in other parts of the world, even as Russia and the United States try to marginalise it in a resolution of the Ukraine war. In Central Asia, the 27-nation bloc is often seen as a partner that regional actors can use to balance their relations with China. But is there anything Brussels can offer that Beijing cannot? Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Central Asia remained in Moscow’s geopolitical and geoeconomic orbit for... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3302621/why-china-and-europe-are-competing-woo-central-asia?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3302621/why-china-and-europe-are-competing-woo-central-asia?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 20 Mar 2025 12:30:08 +0000 As the third anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine approaches, peace in the Eastern European country seems closer than ever. US President Donald Trump, who has positioned himself as a de facto mediator, seems determined to end the war. But is Kyiv interested in signing a peace deal with Moscow on Washington’s terms? According to the American leader, Ukraine had three years to reach an agreement with Russia “that would have given them almost all of the land”. Surprisingly, he appears to... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3299425/why-china-should-worry-trump-makes-nice-putin-over-ukraine?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3299425/why-china-should-worry-trump-makes-nice-putin-over-ukraine?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 21 Feb 2025 12:30:08 +0000 As US President Donald Trump reportedly pushes Russia and Ukraine to end the war that has been going on for three years, the Kremlin faces a tough dilemma: sign a ceasefire deal with Kyiv under American conditions or continue its “special military operation” and face severe sanctions that could have a significant impact on the Russian economy. Before making a decision, the Russian leadership will have to consider China’s position. Russian-Chinese economic ties have grown substantially since... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3297058/how-chinas-oil-supply-shift-could-force-russia-seek-ukraine-peace-deal?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3297058/how-chinas-oil-supply-shift-could-force-russia-seek-ukraine-peace-deal?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 02 Feb 2025 12:30:11 +0000 Amid geopolitical rivalry between China and the United States, including US sanctions on Chinese clean technology (cleantech), Beijing seeks to strengthen its presence in the Middle East, a region that has traditionally been in Washington’s sphere of influence. What regional actors seem to expect from China is assistance in the development of their green energy sectors. Estimates suggest the Middle East receives 22-26 per cent of the total solar energy on Earth. As such, it sees China as a... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3294797/how-china-aims-be-guiding-light-middle-easts-energy-transition?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3294797/how-china-aims-be-guiding-light-middle-easts-energy-transition?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 16 Jan 2025 21:30:07 +0000 Belarus, which has been seeking closer economic ties with China, is often portrayed as a loyal ally of Russia even though its strongman president, the 70-year-old Alexander Lukashenko, has a history of fluctuating relations with the Kremlin, including feuds with Russian leader Vladimir Putin. These days, Lukashenko, who has been in power since 1994, seems increasingly focused on dealings with China, hardly missing an opportunity to praise the country and its leadership. As far back as in 2016,... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3293777/spurned-west-russia-ally-belarus-courting-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3293777/spurned-west-russia-ally-belarus-courting-china?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 08 Jan 2025 08:30:08 +0000 Building strong ties with China has traditionally been one of Kazakhstan’s key foreign policy priorities. Astana now aims to strengthen relations not only with the country’s central leadership in Beijing but also with Hong Kong. Hong Kong’s strategic location, open economy, tradition of free trade, ease of starting a business and numerous tax benefits make it attractive to companies worldwide, including those from Kazakhstan. In 2016, Hong Kong’s then-financial secretary John Tsang Chun-wah... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3290513/hong-kong-and-xinjiang-could-be-core-kazakhstans-china-strategy?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3290513/hong-kong-and-xinjiang-could-be-core-kazakhstans-china-strategy?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 15 Dec 2024 12:30:06 +0000 As major global powers intensify their focus on Central Asia, China seeks to strengthen its position in the strategically important region. Energy and logistics seem to be leading drivers of Beijing’s policy in Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. But how do Central Asian states see the growing Chinese presence in their region? The five Central Asian states have played a crucial role in the China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine,... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3285135/how-do-central-asian-countries-see-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3285135/how-do-central-asian-countries-see-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 05 Nov 2024 12:30:08 +0000 For China, Europe is one of the most important markets. In 2023, the European Union and the world’s second largest economy traded goods worth €739 billion (US$799 billion). Despite the EU’s decision to impose stiff taxes on imports of Chinese electric vehicles, China and European countries are expected to maintain a large trade volume. What could represent a serious challenge in their relationship is logistics. Traditionally, Chinese goods have been coming to Europe mostly by sea. But as... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3283102/china-and-eu-have-logistics-problem-central-asia-stands-benefit?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3283102/china-and-eu-have-logistics-problem-central-asia-stands-benefit?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 23 Oct 2024 08:30:07 +0000 In the Global South, Brics is widely seen as an alternative to the Western-dominated world order. In reality, the group’s leading members often have opposing views on crucial geopolitical issues and the organisation remains rather ineffective compared to Western institutions. Brics, whose acronym comes from its first five members – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – is scheduled to hold its annual summit in the Russian city of Kazan on October 22-24. The event will be yet another... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3281211/all-high-hopes-brics-neither-united-nor-effective?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3281211/all-high-hopes-brics-neither-united-nor-effective?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 08 Oct 2024 21:30:09 +0000 As Russia and China kick off the joint Ocean-2024 military drills in the Sea of Japan and the Sea of Okhotsk, questions arise about their ability to counter perceived US dominance in the global arena. While military collaboration between Moscow and Beijing signals a united front against the West, doubts remain about whether their “no limits” partnership can lead to significant geopolitical changes, or if it merely serves as a high-profile display. Over the past two and a half years, since Russia... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3278051/china-russia-relations-might-have-few-limits-after-all?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3278051/china-russia-relations-might-have-few-limits-after-all?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 12 Sep 2024 21:30:07 +0000 As Russia and China kick off the joint Ocean-2024 military drills in the Sea of Japan and the Sea of Okhotsk, questions arise about their ability to counter perceived US dominance in the global arena. While military collaboration between Moscow and Beijing signals a united front against the West, doubts remain about whether their “no limits” partnership can lead to significant geopolitical changes, or if it merely serves as a high-profile display. Over the past two and a half years, since Russia... https://www.scmp.com/plus/article/3278187/china-russia-relations-might-have-few-limits-after-all?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/plus/article/3278187/china-russia-relations-might-have-few-limits-after-all?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 12 Sep 2024 05:00:08 +0000 Belarus, one of Russia’s few allies in Europe, seeks to strengthen its economic, political and military ties with China. Isolated from the West and heavily dependent on Beijing, Moscow is in no position to prevent a potential Chinese encroachment into the Kremlin’s zone of influence. But does China really have significant geopolitical ambitions in Belarus? In 2016, while Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko still had relatively good relations with the West, Minsk and Beijing established a... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3276203/how-belarus-seeking-balance-russia-ties-stronger-china-relations?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3276203/how-belarus-seeking-balance-russia-ties-stronger-china-relations?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 29 Aug 2024 21:30:11 +0000 Despite its ambitious plans to become carbon neutral and energy self-sufficient by 2060, China remains dependent on the import of fossil fuels. But China - unlike the European Union, which has begun an “energy divorce” from Russia since the invasion of Ukraine - can still rely on inexpensive Russian natural gas and oil. Cut off from Western markets, Russia – whose oil and gas income accounts for nearly 30 per cent of its national budget – desperately aims to find new customers for its energy.... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3271667/russia-needs-chinas-market-more-china-needs-russian-gas?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3271667/russia-needs-chinas-market-more-china-needs-russian-gas?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 30 Jul 2024 12:30:10 +0000 Isolated by the West over its actions in Ukraine, Russia seeks to retain Central Asia in its geopolitical orbit. But growing Chinese influence in the strategically important region threatens to end the era of Russian dominance in significant parts of Central Asia. Kazakhstan, the largest country in Central Asia, has close ties with both Moscow and Beijing. Despite being Russia’s ally in the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, and a member of the Russia-dominated Eurasian Economic Union,... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3269266/has-china-gained-upper-hand-over-russia-kazakhstan?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3269266/has-china-gained-upper-hand-over-russia-kazakhstan?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 09 Jul 2024 12:30:08 +0000