https://www.scmp.com/rss/519671/feed Hao Nan is a research fellow with the Charhar Institute, a 2025 Korean Peninsula specialist fellow with the National Committee on American Foreign Policy, and a Nuclear Futures fellow (2025-2026) with the Ploughshares Fund & Horizon 2045. en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com Hao Nan Hao Nan In the span of a few days earlier this month, developments that usually sit in separate policy compartments began to converge. Abu Dhabi’s crown prince arrived in Beijing as President Xi Jinping used the visit to set out China’s four-point position on the Iran war. Pakistan, now central to keeping US-Iran diplomacy alive, said no date was fixed for the next round of talks. Washington escalated pressure on buyers of Iranian oil and the banks handling related funds. Reports circulated of yuan use... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3350916/us-dollar-subtler-shift-petroyuan-order-underfoot?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3350916/us-dollar-subtler-shift-petroyuan-order-underfoot?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 26 Apr 2026 08:30:08 +0000 Hao Nan Hao Nan A month into the Iran war, Washington still says it expects to achieve its objectives in weeks, not months. That may prove optimistic. The terms on offer from the United States and Iran barely overlap, and markets remain unconvinced a durable settlement is close. But one fact is clear: the war’s most consequential effects may be felt not only in the Middle East but across East Asia. It would be a mistake to see this as only an oil story. It is also about hierarchy. In East Asia, the war is... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3348429/how-east-asia-being-quietly-reordered-us-war-iran?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3348429/how-east-asia-being-quietly-reordered-us-war-iran?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 02 Apr 2026 12:30:07 +0000 Hao Nan Hao Nan The war in Iran is not just another Middle Eastern crisis. It is a window into what world politics looks like when rules are weakest and power is most concentrated. Washington has spoken in the language of surrender and coercion, European governments have called for restraint and respect for international law, and Asian powers have scrambled to keep energy flows moving through a Strait of Hormuz that has nearly ground to a halt. What this reveals is not a functioning rules-based order. It is a... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3346206/iran-war-signals-return-world-hierarchy-without-order?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3346206/iran-war-signals-return-world-hierarchy-without-order?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 12 Mar 2026 21:30:08 +0000 Hao Nan Hao Nan China and the European Union began 2026 with another trade clash. As the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism entered its definitive phase, Brussels tightened compliance and Beijing warned of countermeasures. However, this week, the two sides signalled progress on defusing the electric vehicle dispute; the EU issued guidance to Chinese EV exporters on submitting minimum price plans. The juxtaposition underlines the point: even when one high-profile area shifts from escalation to technical... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3339329/can-europe-rebuild-its-strength-trade-china-without-fear?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3339329/can-europe-rebuild-its-strength-trade-china-without-fear?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 13 Jan 2026 08:30:10 +0000 Hao Nan Hao Nan As Washington, Kyiv, Moscow and European capitals negotiate an agreement for a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire, debate has snapped back to familiar questions: how much land Ukraine should surrender, what security guarantees can be offered and when sanctions might be lifted. Lost in this argument is a quieter reality. After more than three years of war, the sanctions regime has created a profitable shadow economy from the South Caucasus to the Gulf – one that now has a vested interest in keeping the... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3337340/how-wests-sanctions-against-russia-are-fuelling-protracted-war?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3337340/how-wests-sanctions-against-russia-are-fuelling-protracted-war?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 23 Dec 2025 08:30:08 +0000 Hao Nan Hao Nan By December 1, Russia is likely to approve and present its long-term road map for developing its rare earth sector, following President Vladimir Putin’s directive to the cabinet on November 4. On the surface, this is a domestic industrial policy story about catching up in the hi-tech arena. However, this view misses the woods for the trees. This road map is a sophisticated geostrategic manoeuvre, a single stone aimed at three strategic birds: reclaiming autonomy over strategic resources,... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3333700/russias-rare-earth-gamble-about-killing-3-birds-1-stone?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3333700/russias-rare-earth-gamble-about-killing-3-birds-1-stone?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 24 Nov 2025 08:30:09 +0000 Hao Nan Hao Nan The Korean peninsula has snapped back into global focus. The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea is expected to bring the leaders of the US and China together for their first in-person meeting since US President Donald Trump’s second term began. Meanwhile, Russia-allied North Korea seeks US recognition of its status as a nuclear state and direct talks with Trump. This points to a structural shift in Northeast Asia’s security architecture. Rather than a simple US-China binary... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3330372/triple-trilateralism-korean-peninsula-force-peace-or-conflict?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3330372/triple-trilateralism-korean-peninsula-force-peace-or-conflict?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 27 Oct 2025 12:30:15 +0000 Hao Nan Hao Nan At first glance, US President Donald Trump’s renewed “America first” agenda seems aimed at the heart of the Brics bloc of developing nations. With threats of punitive tariffs and direct provocations, Trump has positioned Brics as a target in his second term. Yet rather than splitting the bloc apart, his aggressive policies are fortifying it. Since returning to power, Trump has vowed to punish countries trying to create an alternative to the US dollar, including a threat of 100 per cent tariffs... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3321580/how-trumps-anti-brics-crusade-giving-bloc-new-strength-and-meaning?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3321580/how-trumps-anti-brics-crusade-giving-bloc-new-strength-and-meaning?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 13 Aug 2025 21:30:08 +0000 Hao Nan Hao Nan Within around 10 days in late May, three top US leaders – US President Donald Trump, US Vice-President J.D. Vance and US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth – delivered speeches that together outlined the administration’s evolving foreign policy vision. Taken separately, each speech reaffirmed the US’ commitment to strength and strategic deterrence. Yet when considered as a whole, they exposed a deep tension at the heart of America’s global posture – especially in the Indo-Pacific. For America’s... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3313799/indo-pacific-america-first-looks-american-unpredictability?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3313799/indo-pacific-america-first-looks-american-unpredictability?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 10 Jun 2025 12:30:07 +0000 Hao Nan Hao Nan In a joint statement released on May 12, following negotiations in Geneva, the United States and China agreed to a 90-day pause on most of the additional tariffs imposed since the trade war reignited earlier this year. Essentially, the deal restores tariffs to their pre-April levels but maintains a baseline 10 per cent tariff. While the Trump administration hails the agreement as a diplomatic success, a closer look reveals a strategic dilemma: the more the US pushes for a deal, the less likely... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3310095/trump-faces-strategic-dilemma-trade-deal-negotiations?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3310095/trump-faces-strategic-dilemma-trade-deal-negotiations?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 13 May 2025 12:30:08 +0000 As the world reels from US President Donald Trump’s sweeping – though now largely paused – “reciprocal” tariffs, next month’s global geopolitical calendar could prove consequential. Nearly every region is on the brink of decisions that could shape the coming years. Centre stage are Trump’s first state visits of his second term, expected as soon as next month. He will reportedly visit Saudi Arabia first, as well as the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. Trump’s focus highlights Gulf investments in... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3306662/world-edge-headed-geopolitical-reckoning-may?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3306662/world-edge-headed-geopolitical-reckoning-may?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 18 Apr 2025 21:30:07 +0000 The much-anticipated phone call between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on March 18 achieved a limited outcome with only a 30-day pause on energy infrastructure attacks – far from the 30-day ceasefire envisioned by the US which Ukraine had agreed to earlier. Days before this, Putin made his first visit to Kursk since Ukraine’s incursion, confirming Russia’s goal of defeating the enemy. Hours after the Trump-Putin talk, both Russia and Ukraine resumed air attacks,... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3303417/china-has-good-reason-keep-its-peacekeepers-out-ukraine?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3303417/china-has-good-reason-keep-its-peacekeepers-out-ukraine?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 25 Mar 2025 21:30:08 +0000 China’s rapid advances in artificial intelligence (AI) are reshaping the dynamics of global technology and one of the most consequential shifts is taking place beyond the traditional AI power centres of Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen. China’s AI influence is expanding across the Global South, from Africa to Latin America and Southeast Asia. With affordable AI-powered products, investments in digital infrastructure and a growing influence in AI governance, China is positioning itself as the... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3300271/chinas-ai-push-global-south-not-just-about-technology?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3300271/chinas-ai-push-global-south-not-just-about-technology?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 02 Mar 2025 08:30:07 +0000 On January 17, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty in Moscow. Touted as a milestone in bilateral relations, it deepens ties between two nations grappling with international sanctions. Just months earlier, Russia and North Korea ratified their own treaty with a strong emphasis on mutual defence. These treaties reflect Moscow’s efforts to recalibrate its alliances amid global isolation. However, their... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3297267/russias-close-ties-north-korea-and-iran-represent-diverging-goals?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3297267/russias-close-ties-north-korea-and-iran-represent-diverging-goals?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 04 Feb 2025 21:30:09 +0000 Iran has held its second round of nuclear talks with European powers in as many months, in an encouraging sign after its reformist president, Masoud Pezeshkian, signalled a readiness to enter a new era of engagement. Described as “serious, frank and constructive”, Iran’s January 13 discussion in Geneva with France, Britain and Germany furthered the dialogue to resume negotiations and reach a deal over Tehran’s controversial nuclear programme. This comes ahead of Donald Trump’s return as US... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3294925/why-time-right-press-iran-give-its-nuclear-ambitions?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3294925/why-time-right-press-iran-give-its-nuclear-ambitions?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 17 Jan 2025 21:30:06 +0000 On December 14, South Korea’s National Assembly successfully impeached President Yoon Suk-yeol on its second attempt. The impeachment has headed to the Constitutional Court, which has up to six months to review it. On Friday, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo who had assumed the role of acting president was also impeached. If Yoon’s impeachment is upheld, opposition leader Lee Jae-myung could become the new president and recalibrate Yoon’s domestic and foreign policy directions with the backing of a... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3292041/south-korea-crisis-what-black-swans-lurk-east-asia-2025?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3292041/south-korea-crisis-what-black-swans-lurk-east-asia-2025?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 27 Dec 2024 21:30:08 +0000 On December 7, South Korea’s President Yoon Suk-yeol survived an impeachment motion following his abrupt declaration of martial law on December 3. Yoon had attempted to paint the liberal-left opposition as pro-communist and a threat to South Korea’s democracy but this failed to resonate with the public. While 18 legislators from the ruling People Power Party joined opposition parties to nullify the declaration, lawmakers could not get enough defectors from Yoon’s party to reach the... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3290164/world-crisis-needs-smooth-us-presidential-transition?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3290164/world-crisis-needs-smooth-us-presidential-transition?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 11 Dec 2024 21:30:08 +0000 On November 12, North Korea announced that it had ratified its comprehensive strategic partnership treaty with Russia, which Russian President Vladimir Putin had already signed into law on November 9, completing the process for both sides. This formalises an alliance that the US and its allies view with growing alarm. This treaty – which took five months to ratify on both sides following the initial announcement during Putin’s visit to Pyongyang in June – aligns the two countries in mutual... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3286724/russia-north-korea-pact-striking-its-strategic-ambiguity?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3286724/russia-north-korea-pact-striking-its-strategic-ambiguity?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 18 Nov 2024 21:30:08 +0000 In an unmistakable show of military might just days before the US presidential election, North Korea launched its newest solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the Hwasong-19, on October 31. Far from a simple reminder of Pyongyang’s capabilities, the event, carefully timed amid condemnation of North Korea’s reported deployment of troops in support of Russia, highlighted its deepening alliance with Moscow. The signal for the United States and its allies is that the foreign policy... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3284698/north-koreas-missile-test-days-us-election-sends-powerful-message?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3284698/north-koreas-missile-test-days-us-election-sends-powerful-message?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 03 Nov 2024 01:30:08 +0000 China’s intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test last month made waves in global security circles, marking a milestone in the country’s military modernisation and revealing critical dynamics in US-led alliances in the Asia-Pacific. While analysis has focused on the technological strides China showed, the test exposes a series of under-reported challenges, particularly around alliance dynamics, nuclear diplomacy and the shifting power balance in global arms control. By examining these... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3281743/chinas-icbm-test-may-well-redraw-global-security-landscape?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3281743/chinas-icbm-test-may-well-redraw-global-security-landscape?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 16 Oct 2024 01:30:08 +0000 North Korea has disclosed its undeclared uranium enrichment sites for the first time since 2010, amid speculation that Pyongyang could have more than 60 nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, reports have emerged that the US and UK are concerned Russia might be sharing secret information and technology with Iran, potentially advancing Tehran’s ability to develop nuclear weapons. This would align with the nature of cooperation between Iran and North Korea, possibly involving the exchange of strategic... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3278834/us-china-tensions-risk-igniting-nuclear-arms-race-east-asia?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3278834/us-china-tensions-risk-igniting-nuclear-arms-race-east-asia?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 19 Sep 2024 01:30:09 +0000 The war in Ukraine took a new turn on August 6, when Ukrainian forces launched a surprising offensive against the Russian region of Kursk. This bold move, aimed at creating a buffer zone, was intended to force Russia to give up its territorial claims in any future peace negotiations. However, the immediate consequence was Russia’s withdrawal from any ongoing peace talks, escalating the conflict further. Amid such a complex and increasingly volatile situation, China’s role has come under the... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3276825/more-chinas-role-ukraine-peace-efforts-meets-eye?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3276825/more-chinas-role-ukraine-peace-efforts-meets-eye?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 02 Sep 2024 08:30:11 +0000