https://www.scmp.com/rss/520848/feed David Tingxuan Zhang is a macroeconomics and policy analyst at Trivium China, where he focuses on China's real estate market, local government finances and US-China relations. He advises governments, investors and multinational corporations on China's economic policymaking and evolving business environment. en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com David Tingxuan Zhang David Tingxuan Zhang For years, China’s embattled real estate sector has been framed as a terminal drag on the economy – a deflating bubble that policymakers are unwilling to rescue but unable to ignore. That framing misses what is happening. The absence of a large bailout is not so much a sign of the leadership’s indifference as a deliberate choice. It points to something more consequential than short-term market stabilisation: a systemic effort to redesign the sector’s role in the macroeconomy. The old development... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3347891/reinflate-property-sector-no-china-wants-ambitious-redesign?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3347891/reinflate-property-sector-no-china-wants-ambitious-redesign?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 01 Apr 2026 21:30:07 +0000 David Tingxuan Zhang David Tingxuan Zhang China’s latest outbound investment numbers look underwhelming at first glance. At the commerce ministry’s recently concluded national conference on outbound investment and foreign aid, officials revealed that outward direct investment grew by just 1.3 per cent in 2025, a sharp slowdown from the double-digit pace seen in 2024 and 2023. On paper, it appeared to confirm a cooling of China’s overseas expansion. That conclusion misses what is actually changing. The more important story is not the... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3341332/chinas-slowing-overseas-investment-reflects-caution-not-retreat?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3341332/chinas-slowing-overseas-investment-reflects-caution-not-retreat?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 28 Jan 2026 01:30:08 +0000 David Tingxuan Zhang David Tingxuan Zhang China recently announced it would impose an export licensing regime on around 300 steel products starting January 1. The move, while seemingly technical, sends a clear signal Beijing is attempting to address a key source of trade friction with its emerging market partners. To understand the policy’s intent, it needs to be placed in the broader context of China’s trade position this year. As global trade protectionism intensifies, China’s exports have shown remarkable resilience. Even as... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3336824/chinas-steel-export-licensing-plan-shows-will-curb-trade-frictions?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3336824/chinas-steel-export-licensing-plan-shows-will-curb-trade-frictions?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 22 Dec 2025 21:30:08 +0000 David Tingxuan Zhang David Tingxuan Zhang Few outside China might know that e-commerce giants Alibaba and JD.com host the country’s largest online platforms for distressed property sales. On any given day, their auction websites offer a front-row view of China’s housing downturn where properties are foreclosed and liquidated under court orders, often at market-shaking discounts. A month ago, 66 flat units in a Shanghai project owned by indebted developer Sunac were put up for auction after being seized by courts. Buyers were found but... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3330176/amid-wave-foreclosures-chinas-homeowners-could-use-break?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3330176/amid-wave-foreclosures-chinas-homeowners-could-use-break?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 25 Oct 2025 21:30:07 +0000 David Tingxuan Zhang David Tingxuan Zhang This summer brought an unusual challenge to China’s higher education system: some universities couldn’t find enough students. In provinces like Guangxi, Guangdong and Shandong, dozens of private universities fell short of their enrolment targets. Many lowered entry standards to fill classrooms, yet some still had thousands of empty seats as the autumn semester began. Some public universities, in places from Yunnan to Henan and Shandong, are also facing the same challenge. The sight is jarring.... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3326526/beijing-must-act-ensure-university-degree-worth-its-costs?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3326526/beijing-must-act-ensure-university-degree-worth-its-costs?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 26 Sep 2025 01:30:10 +0000 David Tingxuan Zhang David Tingxuan Zhang In an encouraging tableau presented by Chinese authorities, which reported 5.3 per cent year-on-year growth for the first half of 2025, one sector stands out as a persistent thorn in the nation’s side: real estate. Per official stats, investment in real estate development plummeted by 11.2 per cent in the first half of 2025, a steeper decline than the 10.6 per cent drop for the entirety of 2024. This casts a shadow on Premier Li Qiang’s optimistic pledge at a July State Council meeting to... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3323176/why-beijing-letting-parts-chinas-property-sector-fail?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3323176/why-beijing-letting-parts-chinas-property-sector-fail?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 27 Aug 2025 08:30:08 +0000 David Tingxuan Zhang David Tingxuan Zhang “Boosting consumption” has become one of the most familiar refrains when it comes to discussing China’s economy. From official statements to think tank reports, the idea that China must pivot away from its decades-long reliance on investment and exports towards a more consumer-driven model has gained near-universal traction. However, this growing consensus risks simplifying a far more complex question: what exactly is the role of consumption in China’s growth, and is its perceived weakness truly... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3320670/china-needs-smarter-not-less-investment-unlock-household-demand?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3320670/china-needs-smarter-not-less-investment-unlock-household-demand?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 05 Aug 2025 08:30:08 +0000 David Tingxuan Zhang David Tingxuan Zhang Amid a prolonged economic transition, China’s growth engine is shedding its old gears. The heyday of real estate expansion is over. Urban home prices have lost their relentless upwards march and local governments, once flush with land revenues, are confronting fiscal strain. It is tempting to declare this the end of the land finance era, a long-anticipated turning point that will force Beijing to adopt a more sustainable fiscal model. Yet such a conclusion would be premature. For all the... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3317446/why-land-and-property-remain-core-chinas-economic-transition?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3317446/why-land-and-property-remain-core-chinas-economic-transition?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 10 Jul 2025 21:30:07 +0000 David Tingxuan Zhang David Tingxuan Zhang In recent months, the Chinese government’s deliberate pace in responding to economic headwinds has frustrated markets. Faced with persistent weakness in household consumption, a drawn-out property downturn and growing external uncertainty, many had hoped Beijing would turn to bold stimulus measures or administer direct cash transfers to citizens. Yet time and again, officials have signalled their intent to stay the course – doubling down on slow-moving structural reforms rather than short-term... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3311832/urban-renewal-china-buying-its-economy-time?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3311832/urban-renewal-china-buying-its-economy-time?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 28 May 2025 08:30:09 +0000 To combat the economic devastation of the Great Depression, US president Franklin D. Roosevelt deployed work-relief programmes – providing government-funded jobs for the unemployed – on a massive scale to stimulate demand and restore household confidence. Nearly a century after America’s New Deal, China is quietly integrating a similar concept into its latest push for consumption-led growth. In mid-March, Beijing unveiled an ambitious “special action plan” to bolster domestic spending. The... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3304586/china-can-take-leaf-post-war-america-work-relief-programmes?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3304586/china-can-take-leaf-post-war-america-work-relief-programmes?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 01 Apr 2025 21:30:08 +0000 Across China, idle construction sites, delayed civil servant salaries and back-tax demands on businesses all point to a lingering fiscal crisis. Now entering its fourth year, the property market slump has crippled land sales – the primary revenue source for local governments, especially those in the hinterland regions and underdeveloped areas. With shrinking revenues, local governments are struggling to repay mounting debt while still trying to meet economic growth targets. Policymakers have... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3297351/chinas-local-government-financing-vehicles-are-ticking-debt-bomb?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3297351/chinas-local-government-financing-vehicles-are-ticking-debt-bomb?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 05 Feb 2025 08:30:08 +0000