https://www.scmp.com/rss/521545/feed Albert Bakhtizin is director of the Central Institute of Economics and Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, a member of the academy and a professor at Lomonosov Moscow State University. His research focuses on national power modelling, demographic resilience and agent-based computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling. He is a certified CGE developer (World Bank Institute). en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com Albert Bakhtizin Albert Bakhtizin War in Iran disrupting established trade flows raises an important question: how serious could the consequences be, and for whom will they be most severe? To answer this, it is useful to look at history. During the fifth and fourth centuries BC, Athens, a major centre, depended heavily on grain imports. Whenever routes were blocked during wars, Athens almost immediately faced the threat of a food crisis. In the Middle Ages, Venice became one of Europe’s richest cities and a crucial hub linking... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3346896/hormuz-crisis-underlines-vulnerability-global-trade-chokepoints?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3346896/hormuz-crisis-underlines-vulnerability-global-trade-chokepoints?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 22 Mar 2026 12:30:09 +0000 Albert Bakhtizin Albert Bakhtizin The latest developments in Venezuela are interpreted as part of a broader US strategy to secure access to major oil resources. They are much more than that: the US raid signals a transformation in the global economy wherein a country’s power is increasingly determined not by its political actions, but by its capacity to embed resource wealth within a self-sustaining production system. These deeper processes did not begin today, but rather around 2008-2009 when, according to an integrated... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3339789/us-venezuela-raid-shows-geopolitics-now-contest-between-economic-blocs?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3339789/us-venezuela-raid-shows-geopolitics-now-contest-between-economic-blocs?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 18 Jan 2026 08:30:13 +0000 Albert Bakhtizin Albert Bakhtizin As 2025 draws to a close, it marks an important milestone in the reconfiguration of the global economic system. Every century is defined not only by changes in technological leadership and shifts in global power, but also by the restructuring of the global financial system. The 20th century was the century of the US dollar, but with the arrival of the 21st century, the contours of the global macroeconomic system have begun to change. A recent International Monetary Fund study, “Playing with... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3337132/forget-us-dollar-watch-water-and-energy-resources-instead?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3337132/forget-us-dollar-watch-water-and-energy-resources-instead?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 23 Dec 2025 01:30:08 +0000 Albert Bakhtizin Albert Bakhtizin This month, the Russian Academy of Sciences completed a study assessing the comprehensive strength of 193 countries across economic, technological, demographic, military, infrastructural and other dimensions. This annual assessment of national power is conducted using advanced methods of multivariate statistical analysis. The latest results, calculated for 2025 and 2026, show the global balance of power has finally shifted from the United States towards China. Also, several regional power cores... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3333151/power-balance-tips-china-world-needs-fairer-financial-system?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3333151/power-balance-tips-china-world-needs-fairer-financial-system?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 20 Nov 2025 12:30:09 +0000 Albert Bakhtizin Albert Bakhtizin US President Donald Trump has returned to a trademark policy in announcing a new round of trade confrontation that clearly echoes the conflict he launched in his first term. Officially, the trade war began on January 22, 2018, when he imposed a 30 per cent import tariff on solar panels. While such measures are usually justified by noble intentions – protecting domestic industries and reviving local manufacturing – in reality, trade wars are often driven by the desire to seize foreign markets and... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3328864/given-its-rare-earth-vulnerability-us-cannot-risk-all-out-trade-war?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3328864/given-its-rare-earth-vulnerability-us-cannot-risk-all-out-trade-war?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 15 Oct 2025 12:30:09 +0000 Albert Bakhtizin Albert Bakhtizin In recent years, the world has seen a growing wave of confrontation, primarily in the realms of trade, finance and information. At the same time, current trends across most nations point towards declining fertility, population ageing, shrinking labour forces and the intensification and reconfiguration of global migration flows. What will China, a demographic giant today, look like over the course of this century? What kind of social profile will this country have by the end of it? To begin, let... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3325879/gloomy-population-projections-china-add-pinch-salt?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3325879/gloomy-population-projections-china-add-pinch-salt?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 19 Sep 2025 12:30:09 +0000 Albert Bakhtizin Albert Bakhtizin In recent years, the world has entered an acute phase of geopolitical confrontation, driven by structural problems such as trade imbalances. Historically, such crises have often been addressed through military conflicts aimed at weakening rivals and redirecting financial and trade flows. This logic is examined in The Price of War, a study of conflicts spanning over 150 years. Since most major powers today possess weapons of mass destruction for deterrence, confrontation has largely taken on a... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3317625/why-global-balance-power-shifting-chinas-favour?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3317625/why-global-balance-power-shifting-chinas-favour?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 19 Jul 2025 21:30:09 +0000