https://www.scmp.com/rss/523615/feed The latest news and top stories on Oxford Economics. A global leader in economic consulting, UK-based Oxford Economics provides economic forecasts analysis and advisory services. It serves businesses, governments and international organisations worldwide, offering data-driven insights and analytical tools. en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com Yeon Woo Lee Yeon Woo Lee China wants artificial intelligence to become a new engine of growth, powering everything from factory upgrades to scientific discovery. But outside the country’s technology hubs, the economic benefits promised by AI may be harder to realise. Recent studies suggest that AI will widen regional divides. Big cities with deep pools of talent, capital and innovative firms are best placed to adopt the technology, while smaller cities and rural areas may struggle to keep up. According to analysts, the... https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3352918/chinas-ai-drive-seen-widening-wealth-gap-testing-common-prosperity-push?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3352918/chinas-ai-drive-seen-widening-wealth-gap-testing-common-prosperity-push?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 10 May 2026 00:00:09 +0000 Agence France-Presse Agence France-Presse US employment rose more than expected in April, while the unemployment rate remained steady, government data showed, with the world’s largest economy firming recent labour market gains but analysts warning of underlying weakness. “Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 115,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3 per cent,” the US Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) said. The gains mainly came in the healthcare, transport and warehousing and retail trade sectors. US job... https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3352952/us-adds-115000-jobs-april-experts-warn-hidden-weakness-economy?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3352952/us-adds-115000-jobs-april-experts-warn-hidden-weakness-economy?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 08 May 2026 14:12:46 +0000 Aidan Jones Aidan Jones A bonfire of red tape to unleash investment and complete stalled projects across Vietnam may drive economic expansion but is unlikely to offset the damage caused by US tariffs and the fuel crisis which have threatened the country’s growth ambitions. Vietnam’s Communist Party General-Secretary and President To Lam, the most powerful leader in a generation, has set an annual growth target of 10 per cent until 2030 to galvanise a nation whose ponderous bureaucracy has snarled private investment and... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3352808/can-vietnams-bureaucracy-reform-boost-investment-amid-growth-threats?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3352808/can-vietnams-bureaucracy-reform-boost-investment-amid-growth-threats?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 08 May 2026 00:00:17 +0000 Biman Mukherji Biman Mukherji Pakistan’s bid to mediate between the US and Iran has put Islamabad near the centre of efforts to defuse the Middle East conflict, but with no lasting peace yet in sight, its fragile economy is becoming increasingly exposed to the fallout from the war. While soaring oil prices and disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz have led to turmoil in global energy markets, analysts said Pakistan has especially limited room to absorb the blow because of its thin foreign exchange reserves, dependence... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3352061/pakistans-imf-backed-recovery-under-pressure-us-iran-mediation-stalls?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3352061/pakistans-imf-backed-recovery-under-pressure-us-iran-mediation-stalls?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 30 Apr 2026 12:28:41 +0000 Ralph Jennings Ralph Jennings The number of Chinese tourists deciding to travel during the five-day Labour Day holiday at the start of next month could rival or exceed last year’s headcount despite higher global fuel prices, analysts said, adding travellers were likely to prefer shorter trips to save on transport costs. Domestic flight bookings were up about 8 per cent year on year and domestic package-tour reservations were about 10 per cent higher ahead of the break, even after fuel prices shot up because of the war in... https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3351100/more-bookings-shorter-trips-chinese-adjust-higher-fuel-prices-labour-day-break?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3351100/more-bookings-shorter-trips-chinese-adjust-higher-fuel-prices-labour-day-break?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 23 Apr 2026 05:32:44 +0000 Biman Mukherji Biman Mukherji Asian airlines are cutting flights, raising fares and reshuffling networks as the Iran war sends jet fuel prices soaring, leaving carriers across the region scrambling to protect their margins and preserve key routes. The shock has hit Asia especially hard because many economies depend heavily on fuel flows from the Middle East, according to aviation analysts, and some regional carriers are less protected from sudden price spikes than their counterparts in Europe or the US. “The impact has been... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3350497/asian-airlines-face-major-headwind-jet-fuel-costs-forcing-flight-changes?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3350497/asian-airlines-face-major-headwind-jet-fuel-costs-forcing-flight-changes?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 17 Apr 2026 10:49:33 +0000 Biman Mukherji Biman Mukherji Washington’s naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is threatening to tip Asia into its worst energy crisis in living memory, with peace talks on the Iran war stalled and no clear timeline for when oil flows might resume. The United States moved to seize control of the flashpoint waterway on Monday night, with US President Donald Trump framing the move as a way to force Iran to open the strait and accept a deal to end the war. Iran responded by threatening all ports in the Persian Gulf and the... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3350057/asias-energy-supply-breaking-point-us-blockades-hormuz?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3350057/asias-energy-supply-breaking-point-us-blockades-hormuz?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 14 Apr 2026 10:09:18 +0000 Carol Yang Carol Yang US President Donald Trump says the war on Iran may not last much longer. But across Asia, government actions are racing to shield themselves from the fallout – revealing a region gripped by anxiety that an energy shock could revive the spectre of stagflation. Under mounting economic pressure and record oil market volatility, Trump said on Monday that the US-Israeli war on Iran could be over “very soon”, though not within the coming week. The most exposed Asian economies – including South Korea... https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3346129/us-israeli-war-iran-threatens-global-energy-how-asia-preparing?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3346129/us-israeli-war-iran-threatens-global-energy-how-asia-preparing?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 11 Mar 2026 02:00:14 +0000 Biman Mukherji Biman Mukherji Pakistan can ill afford to go to war. Neither can Afghanistan. Yet here they are, trading blows across one of South Asia’s most combustible borders – just as a team of International Monetary Fund inspectors arrived in Islamabad to decide on the country’s next financial lifeline. The inspectors had come for a third-round review of Pakistan’s economic recovery programme: the kind of visit that, if it went well, would unlock the next tranche of rescue funding and steady the nerves of skittish... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3345748/pakistan-imperils-its-imf-rescue-afghanistan-border-violence-rages?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3345748/pakistan-imperils-its-imf-rescue-afghanistan-border-violence-rages?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 07 Mar 2026 06:00:14 +0000 Xiaofei Xu Xiaofei Xu Europe woke to a fresh surge in energy prices on Monday as the escalating war in the Middle East disrupted oil shipments and natural gas production in one of the world’s most critical energy-producing regions. The continent’s benchmark natural gas price, the Dutch TTF, rose by more than 40 per cent at one point amid mounting reports of supply disruptions following American and Israeli attacks on Iran and Iranian retaliation against regional targets. Qatar’s state-owned QatarEnergy said it had... https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3345229/europe-counts-cost-iran-war-disrupts-energy-shipments?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3345229/europe-counts-cost-iran-war-disrupts-energy-shipments?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 03 Mar 2026 06:00:12 +0000 Biman Mukherji Biman Mukherji The biggest challenges that the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has to tackle following its recent victory in the general election are the country’s sluggish economy, high inflation and unemployment. Speaking at a webinar, panellists said voters would judge the new government on its ability to create jobs, tame inflation and steady relations with key partners, even as they commended the peaceful election. Zafar Sobhan, editor of Counterpoint, said: “Let us not forget this was a key driver in... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/explained/article/3344168/bangladesh-faces-daunting-post-election-challenges-economy-garment-sector?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/explained/article/3344168/bangladesh-faces-daunting-post-election-challenges-economy-garment-sector?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 20 Feb 2026 12:25:11 +0000 Mark Magnier Mark Magnier The world’s largest retail show held last week in New York saw a mood of measured optimism amid the bustle, cheap swag and canned smiles – a sense that the worst of last year’s tariff turmoil was over and that Chinese goods would continue to fill Walmart and Costco, even if they had to travel through a third country. “I feel more optimistic for this year,” said Teagan Pollard, an IT expert with TP Industries, which sells vaping equipment from China. “The economy and tariffs have been rough. But... https://www.scmp.com/news/us/article/3340995/americas-biggest-retail-show-china-question-never-really-goes-away?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/us/article/3340995/americas-biggest-retail-show-china-question-never-really-goes-away?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 23 Jan 2026 16:00:14 +0000 Ralph Jennings,Kandy Wong Ralph Jennings,Kandy Wong Canada and China appear ready to kick-start trade talks after years of strained relations, with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to Beijing this week coinciding with both countries questioning their once stronger ties with the United States, analysts said. Carney travelled to Beijing on Tuesday for his first official visit to the country, where he will discuss trade, agriculture and energy with officials from Canada’s second-largest single-country trading partner. Liang Yan, a... https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3339747/china-canada-poised-reset-trade-ties-after-trumps-tariffs-force-rethink?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3339747/china-canada-poised-reset-trade-ties-after-trumps-tariffs-force-rethink?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 13 Jan 2026 14:00:11 +0000 Reuters Reuters The Trump administration plans to ‌replace the US ambassador to Vietnam with a nominee set on addressing “imbalanced” trade relations, as Hanoi’s goods trade surplus ‍with Washington surpassed China’s in recent quarters while it was locked in unresolved tariff negotiations with Washington. On Sunday, current ambassador Marc Knapper will end his tenure after being abruptly recalled before Christmas alongside several other career diplomats. His designated successor, career diplomat Jennifer Wicks... https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3339757/vietnams-us-trade-surplus-overtakes-china-trump-replaces-envoy-fix-imbalance?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3339757/vietnams-us-trade-surplus-overtakes-china-trump-replaces-envoy-fix-imbalance?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 13 Jan 2026 10:43:04 +0000 Sylvia Ma Sylvia Ma The yuan has strengthened in recent months, with the offshore rate hitting its highest level against the US dollar in more than a year, fuelling forecasts that it could reach as high as 6.8 in 2026. The currency’s international profile has also inched upwards as Beijing pushes for wider global use. In this explainer, the Post reviews the yuan’s progress across several fronts, drawing on a recent analysis by Betty Wang, head of North Asia research at Oxford Economics. How far has the yuan... https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3337438/what-chinas-yuan-internationalisation-push-looks-and-what-may-hold-it-back?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3337438/what-chinas-yuan-internationalisation-push-looks-and-what-may-hold-it-back?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 23 Dec 2025 06:00:45 +0000 Yeon Woo Lee,Ralph Jennings Yeon Woo Lee,Ralph Jennings As Chinese tourists pull back from visiting Japan amid a diplomatic row, a slumping won is positioning South Korea as the new bargain destination for mainland travellers, analysts said. The Korean won has become Asia’s worst-performing currency in the second half of the year, weighed down by an interest rate gap with the United States and sustained equity outflows to the US market. In October, South Korea’s real effective exchange rate plunged to a 16-year low – falling even further than it did... https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3336644/why-south-korea-becoming-chinas-new-bargain-travel-hotspot-amid-japan-spat?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3336644/why-south-korea-becoming-chinas-new-bargain-travel-hotspot-amid-japan-spat?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 16 Dec 2025 13:00:16 +0000 Sylvia Ma,Frank Chen Sylvia Ma,Frank Chen After witnessing the effects of a tumultuous trade war with the United States this year, China’s top leaders have issued a directive to fortify the domestic economy against persistent or even heightened trade frictions. Following the annual central economic work conference, which concluded on Thursday and set the agenda for 2026, officials emphasised “better coordinating domestic economic work and international economic and trade struggles”, anchoring a pro-growth strategy for the start of... https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3336271/china-digs-trade-struggles-beijing-eyes-dual-strategy-growth-and-resilience?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3336271/china-digs-trade-struggles-beijing-eyes-dual-strategy-growth-and-resilience?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 12 Dec 2025 14:00:09 +0000 Agence France-Presse Agence France-Presse The US Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced its second consecutive quarter-point rate cut to bolster the flagging labour market, in a move that highlighted the growing division in its ranks. Policymakers voted 10-2 in favour of lowering the bank’s key lending rate to between 3.75 per cent and 4.00 per cent, the Fed said in a statement. Opposed to the action were Fed governor Stephen Miran, who backed a bigger half-point cut, and Kansas City Fed president Jeff Schmid, who “preferred no change... https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3330827/us-fed-lowers-key-rate-powell-says-december-cut-not-guaranteed?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3330827/us-fed-lowers-key-rate-powell-says-december-cut-not-guaranteed?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 29 Oct 2025 19:20:17 +0000 Sylvia Ma Sylvia Ma China’s top leadership has made “technological self-reliance and self-strengthening” a key goal in a proposal for the next five-year plan, as it grapples with export controls from the West amid an intensifying global tech race. It is the first time in at least a decade that technological self-reliance has been set as a major goal for the country’s social and economic development. The goal was included in a detailed proposal for China’s 15th five-year plan from 2026 to 2030, which was released on... https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3330667/china-sets-technological-self-reliance-key-goal-next-5-years?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3330667/china-sets-technological-self-reliance-key-goal-next-5-years?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 28 Oct 2025 13:09:44 +0000 Sylvia Ma,Kandy Wong Sylvia Ma,Kandy Wong While the domestic consequences of this week’s shutdown of the United States federal government are clear, analysts said the implications for China may take longer to surface and could be more mixed, as trade talks appear likely to continue between the two countries despite the stalemate in Washington. “We don’t expect the immediate impact on China to be too pronounced,” said Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING Bank. “One thing to watch in the event of a lengthy shutdown could be... https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3327637/us-government-frozen-after-shutdown-china-talks-still-motion-analysts?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3327637/us-government-frozen-after-shutdown-china-talks-still-motion-analysts?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 02 Oct 2025 11:00:09 +0000 Mia Nurmamat Mia Nurmamat As China consolidates its near-monopoly status in critical minerals and rare earth elements – essential raw materials for the production of numerous high-value items in the technology and defence sectors – Washington’s proposed US$5 billion fund to secure its access to these supply chains may come too late to close the gap, analysts said. Bloomberg reported last week that the United States is planning to allocate billions in pursuit of a larger share of these minerals’ global supply, following a... https://www.scmp.com/economy/article/3326696/rumoured-us-rare-earth-fund-coming-too-late-catch-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/economy/article/3326696/rumoured-us-rare-earth-fund-coming-too-late-catch-china?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 24 Sep 2025 13:30:09 +0000 Ralph Jennings Ralph Jennings The US government has drafted an expansion of its critical-minerals list to head off what an official said were potential “supply-chain disruptions”, in a move that experts say could help onshore more production of semiconductor chips, automotive systems and solar panels instead of relying on China. The US Department of the Interior released the draft 2025 List of Critical Minerals on Tuesday, adding 51 mined commodities such as copper, lead, potash, silicon and silver. This marks the second... https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3323661/us-expanding-critical-minerals-roster-guide-investment-reduce-reliance-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3323661/us-expanding-critical-minerals-roster-guide-investment-reduce-reliance-china?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 29 Aug 2025 14:00:12 +0000