https://www.scmp.com/rss/77044/feed Raffaello Pantucci is a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London and a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) in Singapore. His work focuses on terrorism, counter-terrorism and China's Eurasian relations. He has a forthcoming book on China's relations with Central Asia and most of his work can be found at raffaellopantucci.com. Prior to Covid-19, he spent a good portion of his time traversing the Eurasian continent seeking... en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com A decade after its announcement in Kazakhstan, China’s Belt and Road Initiative continues to dominate international conversation. At the recent G20 summit in New Delhi, a push to create a new corridor from India to Europe via the Middle East – touted by US President Joe Biden as “a big deal” – was widely seen as a counter to China’s infrastructure initiative. Yet the new corridor would cross routes already considered part of the belt and road and has created tensions among Group of 20 members.... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3235065/why-wests-attacks-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-are-futile?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3235065/why-wests-attacks-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-are-futile?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 20 Sep 2023 21:30:38 +0000 This year’s Brics summit attracted more attention than usual. Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates now look set to become members next year, while a raft of other leaders attended. But with both China and Russia in attendance, the focus was on the grouping as an alternative to the established world order, supported by a narrative advanced in the media. Yet, at the same time, Western analysts and officials appear reassured by the inherent illogicality of the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3232557/expanded-brics-key-message-west-not-only-show-town?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3232557/expanded-brics-key-message-west-not-only-show-town?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 29 Aug 2023 16:30:18 +0000 A spat over a viral video of a group of Chinese citizens being detained at the Russian border has escalated into a rebuke of Moscow by Beijing. Coming at around the same time that China chose to attend a Saudi-sponsored and Western-backed peace summit on the Ukraine war, it has been interpreted in some quarters as a shift by China away from Russia. This is manifestly not the case, and again reflects a failure to properly analyse the Sino-Russian relationship. Such misunderstanding is the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3230369/china-russia-relations-are-strong-enough-withstand-occasional-spat?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3230369/china-russia-relations-are-strong-enough-withstand-occasional-spat?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 09 Aug 2023 17:00:14 +0000 The geopolitical wrangling around Afghanistan continued at the recent China-Afghanistan-Pakistan foreign ministers’ dialogue in Islamabad, even as Russia pushes for the formation of a core group in the Moscow Format Consultations on Afghanistan that would include itself, India, Iran, Pakistan and China. Neither is likely to fix Afghanistan or bring answers. Rather, Afghanistan will continue to sit at the centre of the Eurasian heartland, creating headaches for the powers that surround it. The... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3220083/intractable-taliban-afghanistan-remains-headache-china-russia-and-all-its-neighbours?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3220083/intractable-taliban-afghanistan-remains-headache-china-russia-and-all-its-neighbours?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 11 May 2023 19:00:13 +0000 Beijing deserves credit for seizing the opportunity to support Saudi-Iranian rapprochement. While it is premature to say China has displaced the United States in the Middle East through this deal, coming amid reports that President Xi Jinping is to meet both Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin, it does highlight the appeal of Beijing’s approach to foreign policy to a wider audience than is sometimes appreciated in the US or Europe. As far as can be... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3213625/chinas-saudi-iran-deal-clear-victory-its-global-push-be-force-peace?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3213625/chinas-saudi-iran-deal-clear-victory-its-global-push-be-force-peace?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 18 Mar 2023 17:00:08 +0000 There is a third leg in the alliance of powers against which the West is facing off that has always seemed a little wobblier than the other two. The China-Russia relationship is as tight as ever, and the Russia-Iran link is only hardening as Tehran steps up its military support to Moscow. The China-Iran link, however, seems more troubled. Last week’s visit by Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to Beijing has been sold as an opportunity to bolster cooperation, but even with a high-profile boost, it... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/asia/article/3210749/power-imbalance-china-iran-relations-full-display-during-raisis-beijing-trip?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/asia/article/3210749/power-imbalance-china-iran-relations-full-display-during-raisis-beijing-trip?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 21 Feb 2023 22:15:13 +0000 This year marks the first decade of the Belt and Road Initiative. While the vision might have evolved from the speeches President Xi Jinping gave in Astana and Jakarta in 2013, it remains a key concept that has been enshrined in Communist Party doctrine. The territory it started marching across has changed dramatically, but what has not yet changed is China’s willingness to step into a leadership role within this space. Most glaringly, this is visible in the two major conflicts that now dominate... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/asia/article/3207067/china-still-reluctant-use-its-power-and-influence-eurasia-despite-crises-ukraine-and-afghanistan?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/asia/article/3207067/china-still-reluctant-use-its-power-and-influence-eurasia-despite-crises-ukraine-and-afghanistan?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 19 Jan 2023 00:15:10 +0000 Uzbekistan has in many ways always been the heart of Central Asia. It might be dwarfed in hydrocarbon wealth and physical size by Kazakhstan, but its other attributes give it influence. Yet, China does not have the same sort of commanding position within the country as it has with Kazakhstan. There are numerous reasons for this, from local hesitance to problems in China, but collectively they illustrate the trouble Central Asia faces as it seeks to use Beijing as a hedge against Moscow, with... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3202352/why-uzbekistan-and-kazakhstans-hopes-using-china-hedge-against-russia-could-be-doomed?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3202352/why-uzbekistan-and-kazakhstans-hopes-using-china-hedge-against-russia-could-be-doomed?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 09 Dec 2022 17:00:14 +0000 There was a lazy narrative that emerged in the wake of the Taliban takeover of Kabul that this would be a major victory for China. The operating assumption was that Beijing would swoop in and fill the geopolitical void left by the Western withdrawal. Underpinning this was a general sense of Western decay which “adversary” powers –China, Russia, Iran – would be able to take advantage of. Yet as we have seen ahead of this month’s meetings known as the Moscow format talks, these powers are having... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3199711/china-wont-be-filling-void-left-us-afghanistan-any-time-soon?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3199711/china-wont-be-filling-void-left-us-afghanistan-any-time-soon?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 17 Nov 2022 19:30:10 +0000 The election of Shehbaz Sharif as prime minister of Pakistan by the country’s legislators completes a series of events that place China in a favourable place in its Eurasian neighbourhood. Beijing now has a leader in Islamabad with whom it has had a successful relationship in the past. China is also increasingly presenting itself as the closest partner to the new Taliban government in Kabul, and in Central Asia it faces a region where Russia – the other major power – is distracted by a... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3174734/how-pakistans-new-prime-minister-completes-favourable-picture-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3174734/how-pakistans-new-prime-minister-completes-favourable-picture-china?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 19 Apr 2022 14:00:11 +0000 The single-minded focus on China’s friendship with Russia misses the far wider range of supporters around the world that Moscow has been able to muster. It is this wider web that really highlights the difficulty the US and Europe will have in marshalling international support to condemn Moscow’s actions. The myopia reflects the difficulty in playing the complicated game of three-dimensional chess that is international geopolitics, where relationships are coloured by shades of grey and focus on... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3172430/ukraine-war-how-wests-focus-chinas-ties-russia-misses-bigger?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3172430/ukraine-war-how-wests-focus-chinas-ties-russia-misses-bigger?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 07 Apr 2022 01:00:55 +0000 It has been a tumultuous six months for Eurasia. The Taliban takeover in Afghanistan last August was followed by widespread civil unrest in Kazakhstan at the turn of the year and now a Russian invasion of Ukraine. While Russia has had a prominent role in each context, it is China’s perspective that people most frequently ask about. Yet Beijing has stayed broadly passive, highlighting the role that China sees for itself in the world. China may be the new superpower on the international stage, but... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3169989/eurasia-turmoil-how-chinas-passivity-foments-chaos?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3169989/eurasia-turmoil-how-chinas-passivity-foments-chaos?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 13 Mar 2022 01:15:13 +0000 The outbreak of violence in Kazakhstan has awakened the question of Sino-Russian competition in Central Asia. The assertion of Russian hard power is interpreted as being an example of Moscow getting the upper hand, to Beijing’s detriment. Yet this analytical framework is unhelpful in really understanding the situation or the nature of the current China-Russia relationship. Beijing and Moscow have no reason to clash with each other over Kazakhstan. Rather, they will play the situation to their... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3162912/why-china-wont-lose-sleep-over-russian-troops-kazakhstan?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3162912/why-china-wont-lose-sleep-over-russian-troops-kazakhstan?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 11 Jan 2022 17:30:17 +0000 Now that Kabul has fallen, there is a growing narrative about Afghanistan that China is siding with the Taliban in some sort of nightmarish new alignment. The truth is that Beijing has been engaging with the Taliban in the same way that everyone has. It is difficult to understand why we should condemn China for meeting publicly a group that the United States had earlier bolstered with meetings and a formal agreement in Doha. And it is not the only one. Where China could be accused of failing... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3145166/time-china-stop-hedging-its-bets-afghanistan?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3145166/time-china-stop-hedging-its-bets-afghanistan?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 16 Aug 2021 19:30:09 +0000 China appears remarkably sanguine about the growing trouble in Afghanistan. The assumption that a government led or dominated by the Taliban will be a reliable partner is something Beijing has regretted in the past, and could end up ruing again.  There is some consistency in China’s relations with Afghanistan. Beijing has been unwilling to commit to much, yet has sought to do a lot. Its economic projects have never quite got off the ground, while political mediation efforts have at best added to... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3138926/why-china-cannot-afford-take-passive-role-post-us-afghanistan?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3138926/why-china-cannot-afford-take-passive-role-post-us-afghanistan?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 28 Jun 2021 19:30:14 +0000 In a barely veiled reference to the Belt and Road Initiative, the recent Group of 7 Foreign Ministers final communique called on China to end its “coercive economic policies and practices”. It is not the first time the G7 and its individual members have targeted the initiative, but it is unclear what they would offer instead. Rather, the project has become a whipping boy in the broader geopolitical confrontation with China. The first thing the West should remember when responding to China’s... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3134613/how-west-can-best-respond-chinas-belt-and-road?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3134613/how-west-can-best-respond-chinas-belt-and-road?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 24 May 2021 19:30:09 +0000 US President Joe Biden’s decision for the US to leave Afghanistan is both a challenge and an opportunity for China. On the opportunity side, China rids itself of worrying US military bases near its border. On the challenge side, it leaves open the question of who will deal with the instability that might grow in Afghanistan. China still lacks the hard power to do this itself, and it is unclear whether Afghan forces can deliver such security assurances. None of this is new for Beijing, but the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3130804/how-us-withdrawal-afghanistan-offers-promise-and-peril-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3130804/how-us-withdrawal-afghanistan-offers-promise-and-peril-china?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 25 Apr 2021 17:30:15 +0000 US-China tensions have continued seamlessly into the Biden administration. Beijing’s desire for a reset was bluntly rebuffed in Alaska, however China is trying to spin that story now. The sanctions dispute over Xinjiang will only further strengthen a transatlantic desire to confront China. Sensing this, Beijing has launched a diplomatic offensive, first hosting its traditional ally, Russia, followed by a Middle East roadshow by Foreign Minister Wang Yi. But while the Middle East visit was... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3127800/how-chinas-middle-east-charm-offensive-succeeded-despite-affecting?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3127800/how-chinas-middle-east-charm-offensive-succeeded-despite-affecting?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 01 Apr 2021 20:00:20 +0000 There is no pause button for the Belt and Road Initiative, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said during his expansive news conference on Chinese diplomacy during the annual Two Sessions summit in Beijing. Yet, look around China’s neighbours in Central and South Asia and the story looks very different. Closed or only partially opened borders, alongside stories of Chinese frustration at local partners, suggest at the very least a slow-motion button has been hit in several areas. While the initiative as... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3124505/belt-and-road-initiative-chinas-rosy-picture-odds-realities-ground?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3124505/belt-and-road-initiative-chinas-rosy-picture-odds-realities-ground?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 08 Mar 2021 21:15:11 +0000 Having had such a catastrophic year, the world seems eager to turn the page and jettison what went before. Among the many victims of this purge appears to be the Belt and Road Initiative, which after some seven years of existence is reportedly winding down. This premature dismissal is based on an interpretation of a vision as a project, and misses how embedded the belt and road is in Chinese foreign-policy thinking. The belt and road draws on a long tradition of Silk Road conceptions linked to... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3114306/face-chinas-foreign-policy-belt-and-road-will-survive-debt-and?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3114306/face-chinas-foreign-policy-belt-and-road-will-survive-debt-and?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 17 Dec 2020 17:30:17 +0000 Beijing has yet to articulate much by way of major policy initiatives on the trouble in its Eurasian backyard – in Belarus, Nagorno-Karabakh and Kyrgyzstan. Is China’s decision to wait and watch as the chaos unfolds a conscious reflection of the power it wants to be, or acknowledgement of the fact that it has little to offer and no idea what to do? The question of whether China should have a view on all of this instability is a reflection of its place in the world today. On the face of it, the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3106399/why-china-playing-bystander-trouble-eurasia-not-ideal?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3106399/why-china-playing-bystander-trouble-eurasia-not-ideal?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 21 Oct 2020 22:30:17 +0000 China and India continue to talk past each other. China still does not regard India as a serious power, while New Delhi is prodding Beijing in areas of great sensitivity. Security planners on both sides appear willing to accept higher tensions in their bilateral relationship, but the clash in the Galwan Valley shows this can get out of hand. The space between escalation and miscalculation is closing, and a dangerous new normal is establishing itself across the Himalayas. China has never taken... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3102875/crumbling-china-india-relations-suggests-escalation-will-continue?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3102875/crumbling-china-india-relations-suggests-escalation-will-continue?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 25 Sep 2020 14:00:08 +0000 When you become a big power, you become a big target. This is a lesson Beijing is increasingly learning. While much of China’s concern is with tension and anger from the West, there is an undercurrent sweeping through China’s immediate periphery which illustrates how this can become a sharper local problem. China’s southern and western borders are increasingly marked by countries where angry minorities are focusing their rage on Beijing. In some extreme cases, this is resulting in terrorism. The... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3099616/why-china-becoming-bogeyman-its-border-lands?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3099616/why-china-becoming-bogeyman-its-border-lands?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 01 Sep 2020 19:30:15 +0000 A global conflict like the Cold War needs two sides. To the West, a new axis between Beijing, Moscow and Tehran appears to be taking shape. Drawing on the common thread of anti-Americanism, this alignment strengthens the sphere of influence that China has been building across Eurasia. But in these very places where China has been most actively cultivating allies, underlying fears and concerns consistently undermine Beijing’s approach. Still, the arc of these relationships continues to bend in... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3095225/there-no-new-cold-war-west-just-losing-influence-eurasia?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3095225/there-no-new-cold-war-west-just-losing-influence-eurasia?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 30 Jul 2020 17:00:11 +0000 China is heading into a perfect storm on the world stage. While the Communist Party habit is to double down when confronted, others are showing a willingness to match, and top, anything China does. The Covid-19 crisis has provided the perfect cover with China already painted by some as the instigator, something its conspiratorial rhetoric has only exacerbated. The most obvious problem China faces is its confrontation with the US. Already bad before this crisis, relations have only worsened. But... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3084430/beijing-faces-perfect-storm-world-turns-against-its-narrative-amid?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3084430/beijing-faces-perfect-storm-world-turns-against-its-narrative-amid?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 16 May 2020 02:45:14 +0000 The world is grasping for an understanding of how the geopolitics of the coronavirus will play out. One dominant theme is that China is mendaciously riding the media waves to paint itself as a saviour dispensing medical equipment. Yet, it is hard to see how Beijing is benefiting from its medical diplomacy, with opprobrium from every direction. Even given China’s close alliances with Iran and Russia, it is possible to see tensions emerging. It is not at all clear that China will come out of the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3078154/how-chinas-coronavirus-medical-diplomacy-failing-win-over-world?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3078154/how-chinas-coronavirus-medical-diplomacy-failing-win-over-world?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 03 Apr 2020 17:00:11 +0000 Absent from almost all of the official coverage around Chinese President Xi Jinping’s recent visit to Myanmar was any mention of the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor (BCIM-EC). A belt and road route before the Belt and Road Initiative existed, the corridor was a concept first mooted in the late 1990s but has largely gone nowhere. The bigger question this poses is whether this is a harbinger of China shedding its grander overambitious belt and road visions over the next decade for... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3048686/china-getting-real-its-grandiose-visions-belt-and-road?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3048686/china-getting-real-its-grandiose-visions-belt-and-road?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 03 Feb 2020 06:15:14 +0000 Buried among last week’s news of confrontation with Iran was a story that China was on the cusp of investing US$400 billion into the country’s hydrocarbon industry. This was followed late in the week by the news that Iran was going to be joining China and Russia in new naval exercises, an announcement that came a week after the Iranian Armed Forces Chief of Staff, Major General Mohammad Baqeri, visited a naval base in Shanghai. The clear suggestion was that Iran was showing it had a strong ally... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3030115/why-iran-has-got-china-wrong-beijing-will-follow-its-own-playbook?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3030115/why-iran-has-got-china-wrong-beijing-will-follow-its-own-playbook?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 26 Sep 2019 03:00:13 +0000 The Middle East traditionally has been seen as the cradle of terrorist threats that resonate globally; this year, however, has illustrated how a set of potential dangers exists in South Asia with the potential to ultimately wreak havoc around the world – crying out for closer monitoring. Tensions have long been part of life in a region with a massive population, nuclear armed states, persistent geopolitical tensions, economic boom and large, globally scattered diaspora communities. But three... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3010228/time-south-asia-more-closely-monitor-regional-terrorism-global?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3010228/time-south-asia-more-closely-monitor-regional-terrorism-global?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 19 May 2019 09:00:08 +0000 The 2018-19 period has been noteworthy in one way: it has seen a flurry of activity between China and Afghanistan. During that time, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi and his colleague, Ambassador Deng Xijun, have racked up the air miles doing shuttle diplomacy between Kabul, Islamabad and hosting people in Beijing. The result of all this manoeuvring was a successful trilateral meeting in Kabul between the foreign ministers of Afghanistan, Pakistan and China – a parley which appears to have... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2185106/does-beijing-grasp-portent-embracing-afghanistan-and-taliban?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2185106/does-beijing-grasp-portent-embracing-afghanistan-and-taliban?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 10 Feb 2019 02:00:00 +0000 Five years since the concept of the “Belt and Road Initiative” was inaugurated, the current public narrative is pushback. From Washington to Sri Lanka and Malaysia, via parts of Eurasia, the overriding discourse is of loosening the belt and stopping the road. Major powers have started to marshal their resources to offer alternatives, while developing countries are shuffling their decks to try to play a stronger hand in negotiating with the Chinese. The most recent expressions of resistance have... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2167265/unbuckling-chinas-belt-and-road-plan-will-not-be-easy-western?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2167265/unbuckling-chinas-belt-and-road-plan-will-not-be-easy-western?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 07 Oct 2018 11:32:57 +0000 The attempted suicide bombing against a bus carrying Chinese engineers in Dalbandin, Balochistan highlights the complexity of the security problems China faces in Pakistan. The attack was a rare suicide bombing for the Balochistan Liberation Army and was specifically targeting China. It showed how Beijing is finding itself dragged into a clash whose answer lies in the resolution of fundamental issues within Pakistan. In February this year, The Financial Times ran a story which claimed that... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2160918/lesson-pakistan-suicide-attack-china-will-have-pay-high?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2160918/lesson-pakistan-suicide-attack-china-will-have-pay-high?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 26 Aug 2018 04:16:59 +0000 There is an understandable trepidation about China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The problem is, there is a tendency to analyse it solely through the lens of China the adversary, forgetting that numerous countries along the way are affected by this foreign policy initiative and their calculation around China has to be very different. For them, China the adversary is a second-order issue, often trumped by the necessity of seeking either inward investment or a balancer against other regional... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2154002/why-developing-countries-cant-resist-joining-chinas?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2154002/why-developing-countries-cant-resist-joining-chinas?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 07 Jul 2018 14:00:30 +0000 While the world was captivated this week by the globetrotting show of US President Donald Trump, another summit just days earlier suggested what an alternative world order might look like. Various heads of state from member nations of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) met in the Chinese city of Qingdao for the bloc’s annual heads of state meeting. The SCO’s activities have been limited in the decade and a half since it was formed but this year’s summit had some significant... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2151122/china-central-asia-regional-security-blocs-long-slow?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2151122/china-central-asia-regional-security-blocs-long-slow?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 18 Jun 2018 00:45:32 +0000 There is an air of possible change in South Asia. After a positive summit in Wuhan, presidents Modi and Xi both made it clear they wanted the event to be the opening gambit in a rapprochement between India and China. The modest practical achievements presented from the meeting should be seen as positive, illustrating that both powers are aware of the tensions and limitations of their relationship. Nevertheless, the decision to focus on Afghanistan as a possible source of Indo-Chinese cooperation... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2148732/how-beijing-delhi-and-china-pakistan-economic-corridor?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2148732/how-beijing-delhi-and-china-pakistan-economic-corridor?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 11 Jun 2018 00:02:53 +0000 The year has ended with a number of banner headlines about China’s engagement in Afghanistan. Hosting his Afghan and Pakistani counterparts, Foreign Minister Wang Yi announced China wanted to include Afghanistan in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. At around the same time, one of the messages to emerge from the Afghan defence minister’s visit to Beijing suggested that China was going to invest in a security force in Badakhshan province. In fact, neither of these announcements is new and... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2126493/time-china-met-its-promises-and-took-leading-role?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2126493/time-china-met-its-promises-and-took-leading-role?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 02 Jan 2018 07:03:55 +0000 There is an increasingly tired narrative about how China’s encounters with problems in countries involved in its “Belt and Road Initiative” are evidence of potential bumps along the way. Implicit within these statements is the idea that the project (as though the belt and road is a single project) is still being developed and conceptualised, and that these problems are something for down the road. The reality is that the initiative is already under way and China is already managing the problems... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2118406/opinion-china-can-cope-any-bumps-along-way-belt-and?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2118406/opinion-china-can-cope-any-bumps-along-way-belt-and?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 04 Nov 2017 07:32:06 +0000 The threat of returnees from Syria and Iraq is the threat that has not yet barked in the way that was expected. While thousands of radicalised individuals from around the world streamed to fight in Syria, we have not yet seen the same outflow of individuals off the battlefield with direction to launch attacks back in their home countries. There have been some incidents, but it is still unclear whether this threat will express itself in the same way as the flow the other way. When it does,... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2115411/china-should-beware-returning-radicals-whether-they?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2115411/china-should-beware-returning-radicals-whether-they?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 15 Oct 2017 10:00:00 +0000 Geopolitics matters. As we move deeper into a multipolar world, the importance of grand strategy will only grow. Relations between states at a strategic, economic and even emotional level will all intertwine to create a complicated web that will require sophisticated diplomacy to navigate. For China this is a particularly important lesson to learn, given its keynote “Belt and Road Initiative” that requires an acquiescent and peaceful world to deliver on its promise of building a web of trade and... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2107122/china-must-get-along-regional-powers-make-its-new-silk-road?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2107122/china-must-get-along-regional-powers-make-its-new-silk-road?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 19 Aug 2017 12:31:22 +0000 A darker side to China’s Belt and Road Initiative is starting to reveal itself. The initiative aims to build trade and economic corridors from Asia to Africa, Europe and beyond, but at the same time more Chinese citizens are finding themselves in countries where terrorist groups operate. As China’s profile rises and its investments and interests globally grow, China is finding itself in the terrorists’ cross hairs. This means Beijing needs a more considered counterterrorism policy with greater... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2101872/why-china-must-do-more-fight-international-terrorism?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2101872/why-china-must-do-more-fight-international-terrorism?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 09 Jul 2017 06:00:15 +0000 As the new president of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyayev, embarks on foreign visits, Beijing is likely to be fourth on the list, illustrating a broader set of tensions for China in its quest for a Silk Road economic belt through Central Asia. Since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, Uzbekistan has maintained a strategic distance from Moscow and been unwilling to open its doors wide to Chinese investment. It also employs tight currency controls, making it hard for companies to withdraw... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2079931/china-prepared-new-mantle-central-asia-amid-roll-out-its?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2079931/china-prepared-new-mantle-central-asia-amid-roll-out-its?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 19 Mar 2017 01:00:46 +0000 There is a dichotomy at the heart of US-China relations that is best captured by the term “frenemies”. The relationship is both contentious and competitive, while also intertwined and interdependent. The economic side of this discussion is well-worn, but the security one is often overlooked, with a simplistic view concluding that interactions are constructed on an interdependent economic relationship and a tense security one. This misses recent developments that may exacerbate the potential for... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2068716/why-eurasia-will-suffer-if-donald-trump-makes-enemy-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2068716/why-eurasia-will-suffer-if-donald-trump-makes-enemy-china?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 07 Feb 2017 06:03:46 +0000 President Xi Jinping’s ( 習近平 ) visit to Tehran – the first by a foreign leader since the lifting of sanctions – highlights the potential centrality of Iran to China’s broader regional foreign policy. The opening up of Iran, a country in which China has long maintained substantial interests, means Xi’s “One Belt, One Road” vision can now go cleanly across Eurasia without ever going through Russia. Moscow can be cut out. Visiting Tashkent, one can see the ancient routes laid out by the Timurid... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/1913441/chinas-new-silk-road-designed-cut-russia-out-eurasian-trade?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/1913441/chinas-new-silk-road-designed-cut-russia-out-eurasian-trade?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 16 Feb 2016 06:00:08 +0000 Late last week, the leaders of almost half the world's population gathered in Ufa, Russia. The collision of the BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summits was orchestrated by Russia to guarantee exposure and attention, and highlight to the world how many friends Russia has. Dig below the shallow surface, however, and the links between the countries of the two international organisations are barely skin deep, with everyone attending for their own reasons. For China, the two summits... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/1839309/russia-holds-door-central-asia-open-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/1839309/russia-holds-door-central-asia-open-china?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 15 Jul 2015 04:05:19 +0000 The Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia, which begins today in Shanghai, largely passes unnoticed most years. But this year it is being touted as a major global event, largely due to Russia's current awkward relationships elsewhere and China's growing global profile. It also offers a window into President Xi Jinping's vision for China's foreign policy. First proposed by President Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan in 1992, it took 10 years for the conference to... https://www.scmp.com/comment/article/1515712/china-relishes-its-new-role-fostering-regional-cooperation?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/article/1515712/china-relishes-its-new-role-fostering-regional-cooperation?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 19 May 2014 13:15:15 +0000 Various Russian media outlets have loudly and repeatedly declared that China supports Moscow's view on Ukraine. Recently, in an interview on Russian state television, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov characterised China as "our very close partners" with whom he has no doubts. On the face of it, this interpretation is accurate, but the reality is far more complex, with China uneasy about Russia's actions though it may share Moscow's concerns. For all the bombast in its Pacific seawaters, China... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1466364/shared-concerns-mask-chinas-unease-over-russias-action?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1466364/shared-concerns-mask-chinas-unease-over-russias-action?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 06 Apr 2014 18:40:24 +0000 It is proving to be another hot and violent summer in Xinjiang . In quick succession, incidents of violence have erupted across the autonomous region, leading to double-digit casualties. Beijing seems torn between blaming the incidents on foreign terrorists and pointing the finger at domestic turmoil, a focus that ultimately misses the point that whatever is being done to fix the region's problems is not working. The problem is complicated. First, there are individuals in Pakistan's badlands who... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1274035/xinjiang-violence-sad-indictment-beijings-policy?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1274035/xinjiang-violence-sad-indictment-beijings-policy?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 02 Jul 2013 16:00:00 +0000 State councillor Dai Bingguo's visit to Russia this week for strategic security talks has once again focused attention on the supposedly close relationship between the two BRICS powers. An image of alliance thrown up by their parallel voting in the UN and Western analysts' inability to look beyond former cold war alliances mean that suspicion is often cast on a relationship that has as many fractures as it does cohesion. The reality is China and Russia disagree as often as they agree. On the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1021068/china-and-russia-are-no-more-allies-convenience?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1021068/china-and-russia-are-no-more-allies-convenience?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 22 Aug 2012 16:00:00 +0000 On the surface, this week's Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) summit will be another marker in the organisation's steady development as a serious player in regional and, increasingly, international affairs. Below, however, a growing tension between China and Russia is starting to show. The two powers increasingly see their interests diverging in Central Asia. They are close allies in the UN Security Council, but on the ground China and Russia are steadily moving in different directions. ... https://www.scmp.com/article/1003122/strategic-interests-ground-strain-sino-russian-co-operation?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/article/1003122/strategic-interests-ground-strain-sino-russian-co-operation?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 05 Jun 2012 16:00:00 +0000 Vladimir Putin's return to the presidency in Russia was predictably controversial in Europe and America. In Beijing, the official read-out provided by Xinhua highlighted a positive conversation, with President Hu Jintao stating with 'confidence that Putin's new presidential term would see faster progress in building a stronger and richer nation'. That statement affirmed the importance of the Sino-Russian axis as a pole in international relations. Putin, the quintessential Russian chess master,... https://www.scmp.com/article/995981/chess-games-over-central-asia-between-rivals-and-allies?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/article/995981/chess-games-over-central-asia-between-rivals-and-allies?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 19 Mar 2012 16:00:00 +0000