https://www.scmp.com/rss/9606/feed Andrew Collier is the Managing Director of Orient Capital Research and the author of "Shadow Banking and the Rise of Capitalism in China". He was previously the President of the Bank of China International USA. en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com China’s rise to the status of an economic superpower that can threaten and potentially surpass the US seems to have become the de facto narrative. Since China has achieved growth rates vastly higher than its Western counterparts for decades, made overseas investments in every part of the globe, and seen its tech industry rival Silicon Valley, it is easy to see why. At current growth rates, China's economy is expected to overtake the US in about ten years. Though the country continues to grow, it... https://www.scmp.com/china/why-chinas-relentless-economic-rise-isnt-inevitable/article/2135042?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/china/why-chinas-relentless-economic-rise-isnt-inevitable/article/2135042?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 05 Mar 2018 09:30:30 +0000 For the past decade, land has functioned as a giant piggy bank for China's cash-starved local governments. Whenever they ran short of funds to pay for anything, from pensions for retired steelworkers to eye exams, there was usually a piece of land ready to put on the market. Unfortunately, the piggy bank is running on empty. In 100 Chinese cities tracked by the research institute China Real Estate Information, the volume of land sold fell 47 per cent for the third quarter this year. Revenue... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1661456/chinese-property-downturn-hitting-land-dependent-local?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1661456/chinese-property-downturn-hitting-land-dependent-local?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 14 Dec 2014 22:43:09 +0000 One of the theories of China's slowing economy is that it will run into a "Lehman moment". This is when a single financial institution collapses, threatening the entire banking system, ultimately creating a financial crisis. The theory has neat predictive power: find the weak links among Chinese banks, pin down a useful measure of financial liquidity - such as the interbank lending rate - and you have a nice way of keeping tabs on the strength or weakness of China's economy. The problem is the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/article/1568366/housing-bubble-real-problem-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/article/1568366/housing-bubble-real-problem-china?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 07 Aug 2014 09:30:00 +0000 What will happen to small business as China's economy slows? The country's small and medium-sized enterprises are an important part of the economy and even more integral to employment; they account for 60 per cent of gross domestic product but a full 82 per cent of employment. With China's GDP growth dropping from over 10 per cent three years ago to 7.5 per cent or below, SMEs are going to struggle, which could have a disastrous effect on China's future. The biggest problem facing them is a... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1407726/liquidity-crunch-could-devastate-chinas-smes?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1407726/liquidity-crunch-could-devastate-chinas-smes?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 19 Jan 2014 19:31:30 +0000 'Short-term problems will neither hold up nor distort China's sustainable development' Each time China's economy faces difficulties, talk of a collapse tends to surface. Some voices are driven by concerns about their investments; some are looking for speculative opportunities; others might just be following the trend, unable to draw their own conclusions. In any case, it's always necessary to think critically and deeply when absorbing new information, regardless of how authoritative the source... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1288530/china-crash-making?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1288530/china-crash-making?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 22 Jul 2013 16:00:00 +0000 A ramshackle, two-storey concrete building in western Beijing is at the heart of the battle to stop piracy in China. The building is the home of Beijing Central Press Union Digital Technology, one of the country's largest manufacturers of compact disks. The company's website proudly states that it was founded by 13 units of the People's Publishing House, including the large San Lian bookstore chain and the People's Music Publishing House. But more importantly, it is the target of a lawsuit by... https://www.scmp.com/article/473142/battling-chinas-well-connected-pirates?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/article/473142/battling-chinas-well-connected-pirates?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 06 Oct 2004 16:00:00 +0000 Beijing will allow market forces greater play and reduce the role of government in the economy, Premier Wen Jiabao said. In a message relayed in a speech by Vice-Premier Zeng Peiyan , he said enterprises needed greater control over their future while the government confined its role to regulating the economy. 'The one which invests, which makes decisions, which earns income and undertakes the risk' should have a bigger say in the direction of the economy, Xinhua reported him as saying. He... https://www.scmp.com/article/464067/lets-give-market-forces-full-play-wen?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/article/464067/lets-give-market-forces-full-play-wen?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 23 Jul 2004 16:00:00 +0000 In recent months, I have found myself gravitating towards exotic Beijing food - pizza, Caesar salad and hamburgers. It is not as if I do not like Chinese food. Some dishes in Beijing rank with the best in the world. It is just that after a year in China, an American simply begins to feel nostalgic for his native cuisine. But comfortable places to settle down with a couple of beers and a hamburger are few and far between in the capital. There's the Hidden Tree, a favourite of journalists. A... https://www.scmp.com/article/461968/cementing-over-drinking-holes?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/article/461968/cementing-over-drinking-holes?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 04 Jul 2004 16:00:00 +0000 Regulators are keen to boost parts of economy that are generating growth Loans to key sectors of the economy, including energy and communications, will continue to be encouraged despite concerns about overheating, a top banking regulator says. 'On the one hand, we should require commercial banks to control risks,' said Wang Zhaoxing, director general of the China Banking Regulatory Commission's supervision department. 'On the other hand, we are encouraging the central bank to lend to some... https://www.scmp.com/article/461264/key-sectors-exempt-loan-crackdown?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/article/461264/key-sectors-exempt-loan-crackdown?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 28 Jun 2004 16:00:00 +0000 Tom Online is negotiating with China's fixed-line carriers to offer services over cheaper intra-city networks in what could be a new source of revenue. The services would be delivered using a wireless technology - personal access system (PAS), or xiaolingtong, offered by state-run carriers China Telecom and China Netcom Corp. Tom Online's chief executive, Wang Leilei, said any deal would be similar to the revenue-sharing agreements Tom and other internet companies have signed with the... https://www.scmp.com/article/448624/tom-online-seeks-new-outlet-services?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/article/448624/tom-online-seeks-new-outlet-services?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 16 Mar 2004 16:00:00 +0000 Four Seasons Shopping Mall is set to attract second-tier players Finance Street, a new real-estate development in Beijing aimed at global banks and financial companies, is hoping to attract a second wave of small to mid-sized international retailers with a new shopping mall of 72,000 square metres. The Four Seasons Shopping Mall is owned by Finance Street Holding, a company listed in Shenzhen, and is being marketed by Jones Lang LaSalle to European, United States and Asian retailers. While... https://www.scmp.com/article/444893/beijings-finance-street-shopping-retailers?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/article/444893/beijings-finance-street-shopping-retailers?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 17 Feb 2004 16:00:00 +0000 Last week, I picked up a copy of the China Daily's entertainment magazine, Beijing Weekend, and found a photograph of students in a local bookstore, with the following caption: 'In many bookstores around the city, readers equipped with digital cameras can be seen making use of the latest technology. These smart readers take pictures of pages they think useful and process them with computers into clear copies. By doing this, they save money. According to a member of staff at one bookstore, the... https://www.scmp.com/article/443855/intellectual-theft?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/article/443855/intellectual-theft?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 08 Feb 2004 16:00:00 +0000 San Li Tun, Beijing's answer to Lan Kwai Fong, is home to one of the city's more pleasant bars, called Jazz-Ya. Serving Japanese noodles and Yanjing beer on draft, it plays modern jazz on a CD player - but contrary to the suggestive name, it does not feature live music. In fact, there are few live jazz clubs in town. The best established is the CD Jazz Cafe, whose manager and part-owner, Liu Yuan, is the saxophonist in the rock band founded by Cui Jian, whose anti-establishment songs are... https://www.scmp.com/article/443022/jazz-vibe?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/article/443022/jazz-vibe?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 01 Feb 2004 16:00:00 +0000 Mainland and HK officials agree on a single customs examination The mainland and Hong Kong have agreed on a single customs examination at the border - a move that will slash paperwork in half and reduce the time it takes for trucks to deliver goods. Hong Kong will step up checks on local manufacturers and their goods to prevent abuse of the Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (Cepa), which comes into effect on Thursday. Random checks on outgoing trucks will also be intensified. Under the... https://www.scmp.com/article/439553/red-tape-slashed-truckers-border?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/article/439553/red-tape-slashed-truckers-border?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 29 Dec 2003 16:00:00 +0000 The best pizza I have eaten apart from in Rome was in Beijing. It was served by Adria, an institution among expatriates, which has three locations, including one in the popular San Li Tun bar area and a second in the suburbs near the airport. With its wood-fired ovens and crisp crust, Adria's pizza is a godsend for westerners who have eaten one too many spicy dinners in the capital's many (and excellent) Sichuan restaurants. A number of our neighbours live on Adria's pizza several nights a... https://www.scmp.com/article/439427/tasty-trade?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/article/439427/tasty-trade?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 28 Dec 2003 16:00:00 +0000 Software giant Microsoft is tackling the mainland's growing domestic demand by forming a new unit that, for the first time, will develop and launch software for the Chinese market. The products developed for China will be based on local research and demand but, eventually, could be adapted and shipped to customers in the United States and other markets. The move marks a significant departure for Microsoft China, which has a formidable research team but has tended to work in tandem with research... https://www.scmp.com/article/431421/microsofts-mainland-drive?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/article/431421/microsofts-mainland-drive?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 16 Oct 2003 16:00:00 +0000 About 20 minutes outside of Beijing's city centre, in an area just off the airport expressway, sits a group of recently renovated warehouses. To get there, you have to scramble across the highway and walk down a quiet lane, ringed by housing complexes and metalworking factories. At the end of the lane, the warehouses spring to life - huge spaces filled with giant paintings and sculptures, adjacent to several cafes and restaurants. This is the Dashanzi Arts District, a designation that was... https://www.scmp.com/article/430153/artistic-soul?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/article/430153/artistic-soul?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 05 Oct 2003 16:00:00 +0000 Secretaries suddenly become senior officials in state firms. A lower-level employee at Huaxia Bank illegally loans 345 million yuan (HK$324 million) to a local company. On a bigger scale, officials in Shanghai rise to the pinnacle of power in China. All because of the strong power of guanxi. Given the tight control wielded by a small group of officials, big money is often at stake, and deals are cobbled together with the financial equivalent of bubblegum and paper clips. With many such... https://www.scmp.com/article/429921/relationship-maths?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/article/429921/relationship-maths?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 02 Oct 2003 16:00:00 +0000 Sony's growth on the mainland could be slowed by China's unwillingness to fully open its borders to trade, even after the country complies with most of the rules of the World Trade Organisation, according to Sony China chairman Hiroshi Shoda. Sony, which is forecasting a quadrupling of revenue to US$4 billion in 2005 from $1 billion last year, and as much as $8 billion in 2008, said its China business could run into hurdles due to non-tariff barriers that would slow the import and sale of... https://www.scmp.com/article/429748/chinese-restrictions-could-slow-sony?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/article/429748/chinese-restrictions-could-slow-sony?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 01 Oct 2003 16:00:00 +0000 Can a former factory turned art space help sell real estate? Hongkong Land intends to find out. The property developer is spending millions to convert an ageing electrical switch factory in Beijing into a leading arts centre. Three buildings are being transformed into art venues including a dance and music space, several restaurants, an experimental theatre and a dance club. The project, which will open next month, will have a short lifespan. After just 20 months, it will be torn down to... https://www.scmp.com/article/428905/hongkong-land-convert-ageing-factory-arts-venue?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/article/428905/hongkong-land-convert-ageing-factory-arts-venue?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 23 Sep 2003 16:00:00 +0000 The Beijing government by November will select the architect for the high-profile core area within the central business district (CBD) that could be worth billions of dollars to developers, according to Beijing officials and property developers. Five architects have been shortlisted from a list of 11 and the final one will be selected in the next two months for the core area, the last significant undeveloped tract of land in the CBD. After the architects have been chosen, property developers... https://www.scmp.com/article/427429/five-core-architects-shortlisted?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/article/427429/five-core-architects-shortlisted?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 09 Sep 2003 16:00:00 +0000 Roads and two underground rail lines planned to meet the needs of a growing population as the city decentralises The Beijing government is to spend more than 20 billion yuan (HK$18.7 billion) developing the infrastructure of the new central business district (CBD), one of the largest urban makeovers in recent history. The money is for 10 roads and two underground rail lines, along with parks and schools, said Zhang Weigang, division chief of the CBD Administrative Commission. The CBD ... https://www.scmp.com/article/427431/beijing-approves-18b-cbd-makeover?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/article/427431/beijing-approves-18b-cbd-makeover?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 09 Sep 2003 16:00:00 +0000 Partners of potential alliances will require resolve in accepting the pros and cons of a financial agreement The possible collapse of Newbridge Capital's investment in Shenzhen Development Bank does not spell the end of bank deals in China. Foreign banks and institutional investors have an intense interest in China's growing middle class, who are beginning to buy cars, sign mortgages and use credit cards. Players including Citibank, HSBC, Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi and Bank of East Asia are... https://www.scmp.com/article/416328/foreign-players-still-banking-mainland-links?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/article/416328/foreign-players-still-banking-mainland-links?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 22 May 2003 16:00:00 +0000 China Construction Bank is expected to be the first of the Big Four lenders to go public with a mandate later this year China Construction Bank (CCB) is expected to be the first among China's Big Four state banks to go public, following a mandate that could be issued as early as the fourth quarter of this year, according to bankers and economists. The listing would signal China's increasing commitment to financial sector reform. Most industry watchers say the upcoming changes in the banking... https://www.scmp.com/article/416212/ccb-listing-flags-upheaval-industry-reform?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/article/416212/ccb-listing-flags-upheaval-industry-reform?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 21 May 2003 16:00:00 +0000 The listing of China's Big Four state banks will set off a chain reaction that will affect everything from the future of the country's failing state-owned enterprises (SOE) to retired employees' monthly cheques. Its success or failure depends on the government's willingness to swallow the bitter pill of bank reform, which will be expensive and time-consuming. 'Bank reform is a top priority for this Chinese administration,' said David Chin, a managing director at UBS Warburg in Hong Kong.... https://www.scmp.com/article/416213/bank-bailout-key-sectors-solvency?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/article/416213/bank-bailout-key-sectors-solvency?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 21 May 2003 16:00:00 +0000 UBS Warburg has won for the second consecutive year an important poll that helps determine the pay and careers of Asia's research analysts. The poll, organised by Institutional Investor Magazine, asks fund managers across Asia to vote for their favourite research analysts. Last year's runner-up, CS First Boston, stayed at No 2 while in an upset, Morgan Stanley dropped three notches to No 6 as Citibank Salomon made a rapid rise to No 3 from No 8. The rankings are an indication of how good... https://www.scmp.com/article/414992/ubs-warburg-tops-analyst-ranking-poll?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/article/414992/ubs-warburg-tops-analyst-ranking-poll?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 09 May 2003 16:00:00 +0000 Hong Kong stands to lose as much as $40 billion from the Sars outbreak, economists and analysts polled by the South China Morning Post say. But as the number of active infections continues to fall, the outlook for the worst-hit sectors - retail and tourism - is improving. Hotels, restaurants and stores together account for 9 per cent of Hong Kong's GDP. If current woes continue in these sectors to the end of next month, the experts estimate this would result in an overall loss of about a third... https://www.scmp.com/article/414781/hong-kong-loses-40b-things-are-looking?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/article/414781/hong-kong-loses-40b-things-are-looking?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 06 May 2003 16:00:00 +0000 The sharp economic aftershocks Hong Kong is experiencing as a result of the Sars crisis are unprecedented in a major international city in peacetime. Even the September 11 terrorist attack on New York City proved to be a one-off event. Each day that passed without incident was another reason for routines and lives to return to normal. '[Sars] affects the minute details of daily life,' observed Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce chief executive Eden Woon Yi-teng. 'With terrorism, people took... https://www.scmp.com/article/414685/our-core-strengths-will-help-carry-day?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/article/414685/our-core-strengths-will-help-carry-day?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 06 May 2003 16:00:00 +0000 WALL STREET INVESTMENT banks have agreed to pay US$1.4 billion in fees to settle charges that they issued overly optimistic research reports to support their investment banking business, causing shareholders to lose millions. Yet amidst all the brouhaha there, we have heard nary a peep about similar misdeeds in Hong Kong. It could be that Hong Kong's investment bankers floated serenely above the fray, and never got their hands dirty. Maybe we did not see the sort of shenanigans here that were... https://www.scmp.com/article/414556/new-york-clamour-meets-asian-sounds-silence?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/article/414556/new-york-clamour-meets-asian-sounds-silence?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 05 May 2003 16:00:00 +0000