Trail Mix | Study predicts ‘breaking two’ marathon for 2032, but more women runners needed to push female record
- Using economic models, scientific research maps the future of marathon times
- Flagship US journal’s study laments barriers to gender diversity in running
It may just be another 13 years before someone finally manages to break the two-hour mark in the marathon.
That is according to research published last week in Medicine and Science in Sports and Exercise, the American College of Sports Medicine’s flagship journal.
Simon Angus, an associate professor of economics at Monash Business School and the author of the paper, estimated a statistical model for male and female marathon world record progressions, and came to the conclusion that one hour, 58 minutes and five seconds is likely the fastest time any living human being will be able to run the marathon distance of 42.195 kilometres.
The likelihood of a woman running a sub-two hour marathon is much less certain, calculated to be less than a one in 100 probability. The women’s world record has stood at 2:15.25 since Paula Radcliffe set it at the London Marathon in 2003.