You Bet | You Bet: Big match drops in value as Reds and Gunners fall off pace
Both teams are struggling in defence and Liverpool sorely miss Daniel Sturridge
"How the mighty have fallen" might be an appropriate subtitle for Liverpool v Arsenal, which is the weekend's big match in the English Premier League but nowhere near as important as their last encounter at Anfield.
Back in February, Arsenal arrived on Merseyside as Premier League leaders but it was a match that confirmed Liverpool as serious title contenders with a 5-1 victory. Arsenal were knocked off the top of the table, never to return, as first Chelsea, then Liverpool and finally Manchester City held sway above them.
The title challenges of last season are fading and both teams face an almighty scrap just to finish in the top four
It is remarkable to think that match took place little more than 10 months ago because Arsenal are now sixth, 13 points off the searing pace set by Chelsea, and Liverpool are another five points back in 11th place. The title challenges of last season are fading and both teams face an almighty scrap just to finish in the top four.
The reason behind Liverpool's fall can be summed up by one name: Daniel Sturridge. The evidence suggests that, even without Luis Suarez, Liverpool would be doing much better - probably in the top four - if Sturridge had been fit all season.
Since the start of last season, Sturridge has played eight games without Suarez alongside him in attack and he and Liverpool have done rather well. Liverpool have won five and drawn one of those eight games (one of the two losses was away to Manchester City) with an average of two points per game. Over an entire season that would give them 76 points, which in most seasons is enough to finish in the top four.
Contrast that with Liverpool's poor record during Sturridge's long absence this season: only four wins out of 13 with an average of 1.15 points per game.
In that context most of the other arguments about Brendan Rodgers' stewardship are peripheral. It is true that most of his summer signings have not been successful, but that might have been different if Sturridge had been present and Rodgers had been able to integrate the new players more gradually.