You Bet: Precious few FA Cup fourth round banana skins
Big guns look to advance as luck of the draw is firmly in favour of Premier League sides
This week brought the revelation that all 20 English Premier League clubs are, for the first time, in the top 40 of global football's rich list - but money is not the only thing going for them. They are lucky too, judging by the fourth-round draw of the FA Cup.
There are only two all-Premier League ties and most of the top-flight clubs have been drawn against significantly weaker opposition. The best side outside the Premier League is Bournemouth, top in the Championship, and they have realistic hopes away to struggling Aston Villa, while the odds tell us Swansea are in similar peril away to Blackburn.
After that, it is difficult to see where the upsets might come. Perhaps at Birmingham, who are at home to West Brom in a derby, or at League One high-flyers Bristol City, who host West Ham tomorrow.
The individual odds on the big teams are unattractive, although a big All Up bet could pay dividends given the high percentage of progress
In particular, the draw has been kind to the Premier League's "Big Six". One reason why that elite group have dominated the FA Cup is that the luck of the draw is highly unlikely to be bad for all of them at the same time. And with only five rounds to reach the final once the big clubs join the competition, time is always on the side of the giants.
This year the "Big Six" all survived the third round and the four playing today were handed home ties - three against lower-league opposition; Arsenal may be away at Brighton tomorrow, but that is still against a team 34 places below them.
All of this makes betting on the FA Cup difficult. The odds are extremely short on the big clubs but, while progress is highly likely for most of them, the issue of squad rotation complicates matters. In the third round, 11 of the 12 Premier League clubs drawn against lower-league opposition made it through, but only six won by two goals or more.
Arsenal are clearly capable of a big win at Brighton, but in the past five seasons their win rate in ties against lower-league teams is only 60 per cent and only three of the six wins have been by two or more goals. There are risks for punters either way, and that is largely down to weighing up the impact of team selection.
The individual odds on the big teams are unattractive, although a big All Up bet could pay dividends given the high percentage of progress. In terms of decent individual match bets, the shortlist is small.
One option is Bournemouth, who have beaten a Premier League struggler this season with their home League Cup win over West Brom. They have been shut out in only three of their 33 matches in all competitions this season and that gives them a decent chance against low-scoring Villa. Bournemouth on the handicap is a reasonable bet.
Swansea have a good cup record, but the departure of Wilfried Bony raises doubts about them until there is firm proof of Garry Monk's ability to reshape the team.
Blackburn, whose record is average at best against the better teams in the Championship, will need to raise their game to beat Swansea, but could feasibly earn a draw.
So could Birmingham at home to West Brom. The hosts have improved dramatically under new boss Gary Rowett and this looks likely to be a tight, low-scoring game. Blackburn and Birmingham to draw are both reasonable bets.
For a value banker, Derby are a decent-priced option. Steve McClaren's side should be able to cover the handicap against third tier Chesterfield.
In another couple of ties that are easy to overlook, home sides Cardiff and Preston hold good chances.
Cardiff are midtable in the Championship, but rank fifth on home form while Reading are near the bottom on away form, and Cardiff won the equivalent league fixture.
Preston draw too many games to be ultra-reliable for punters but they have a good scoring record at home and could exploit any tiredness in Sheffield United, who are coming off Wednesday night's away League Cup semi-final at Tottenham.
Espanyol, Verona
