You BetYou Bet: Precious few FA Cup fourth round banana skins
Big guns look to advance as luck of the draw is firmly in favour of Premier League sides
This week brought the revelation that all 20 English Premier League clubs are, for the first time, in the top 40 of global football's rich list - but money is not the only thing going for them. They are lucky too, judging by the fourth-round draw of the FA Cup.
There are only two all-Premier League ties and most of the top-flight clubs have been drawn against significantly weaker opposition. The best side outside the Premier League is Bournemouth, top in the Championship, and they have realistic hopes away to struggling Aston Villa, while the odds tell us Swansea are in similar peril away to Blackburn.
After that, it is difficult to see where the upsets might come. Perhaps at Birmingham, who are at home to West Brom in a derby, or at League One high-flyers Bristol City, who host West Ham tomorrow.
The individual odds on the big teams are unattractive, although a big All Up bet could pay dividends given the high percentage of progress
In particular, the draw has been kind to the Premier League's "Big Six". One reason why that elite group have dominated the FA Cup is that the luck of the draw is highly unlikely to be bad for all of them at the same time. And with only five rounds to reach the final once the big clubs join the competition, time is always on the side of the giants.
This year the "Big Six" all survived the third round and the four playing today were handed home ties - three against lower-league opposition; Arsenal may be away at Brighton tomorrow, but that is still against a team 34 places below them.
All of this makes betting on the FA Cup difficult. The odds are extremely short on the big clubs but, while progress is highly likely for most of them, the issue of squad rotation complicates matters. In the third round, 11 of the 12 Premier League clubs drawn against lower-league opposition made it through, but only six won by two goals or more.
Arsenal are clearly capable of a big win at Brighton, but in the past five seasons their win rate in ties against lower-league teams is only 60 per cent and only three of the six wins have been by two or more goals. There are risks for punters either way, and that is largely down to weighing up the impact of team selection.
