Declaring an early winner in the English Premier League title race is often a dangerous thing to do, but the finishing line may be out of reach for Manchester City unless they make significant inroads into Chelsea’s lead before the end of March.
Here’s a scenario that could revive City’s flagging hopes: if they win tonight at Burnley and Chelsea only draw tomorrow in their home match with Southampton, and then City win again next Saturday at home to West Brom, that would put the two sides level on points, albeit with Chelsea holding two games in hand. It is not an unrealistic prospect and City really need to hope that they can build up that kind of pressure before it is too late.
The finishing line may be out of reach for Manchester City unless they make significant inroads into Chelsea’s lead
As it stands, City can reach 88 points if they win all their remaining matches from now to the end of the season. But it is a sobering thought that Chelsea finished with 95 and 91 points in Jose Mourinho’s two previous title-winning seasons and they can still reach a 90-plus total, although their current rate puts them on target for 89. As well as an upturn in their own form, City clearly need some slip-ups from Chelsea.
Chelsea's form has tailed off with them facing a difficult clash with Southampton this weekend. Photo: Reuters
Realistic obstacles for Chelsea are starting to run out, but Southampton undoubtedly have the ability to trip up the leaders. Only seven teams have taken any points off Chelsea this season and the Saints are one of them, with their 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture in December. That was the start of a good run for Southampton against the elite teams, quickly followed by victories over Arsenal and Manchester United, and they remain a serious threat to any opponent even though they lost 2-0 at home to Liverpool in their latest match in that category.
Chelsea have managed only one win in their last six home games (in 90 minutes) in all competitions, with some cracks starting to show in their defence, and they will need to tighten up against Southampton.
Ronald Koeman’s side have won 15 of the 19 league games in which they have scored, losing only two, and they are hard to stop if they get in front – Southampton average a league-leading 2.87 points per game when scoring first (Chelsea’s average, by comparison, is 2.48).
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The strongest form lines point to Chelsea but a positive result for Southampton would not be as big a surprise as the odds suggest.
