Quantitative analysts turning sports betting into more of a science
US gambler claims algorithm makes him a killing, despite his lack of interest in the sport
For someone who says he bets millions of dollars on tennis a year, sports gambler Elihu Feustel doesn't watch many matches.
"Which one is Granollers?" Feustel says, referring to Marcel Granollers, a Spaniard ranked 35th in the world. "Is he the one that's good on clay courts?"
American Feustel says he doesn't need to pay attention to who the players on the men's ATP World Tour are to double his money. He relies on an algorithm he created using data from 260,000 matches to make about 30 bets a day on grand slams.
The market is fairly efficient. Casual bettors aren't stupid
Gamblers and investment funds are increasingly vying for profits from tennis by using computer models to win money from more casual bettors, according to Scott Ferguson, a former Betfair education officer. Such quantitative analysts, or so-called quants, are focusing on tennis in the same way their counterparts are employed by hedge funds to predict moves for stocks, bonds and other assets.
Betfair, a London-based company that enables bettors to wager against each other online, matched almost £50 million (HK$635 million) of bets on the 2012 Australian Open final in which Novak Djokovic beat Rafael Nadal. Djokovic (pictured) is favourite to win a fourth straight title in Melbourne.
Tennis is an "attractive" sport to create an algorithm for because there are only two players in a match and statistics are freely available, according to William Knottenbelt, an associate professor of computing at London's Imperial College. He co-wrote an algorithm that he says would have made a 3.8 per cent return on bets on 2,173 matches in 2011.
Feustel, who says he puts in a 60-hour week checking and improving his model, works with a computer programmer and trader. The programmer trawls the internet for data such as serve speed and break-point conversions. That's plugged into the model, which comes up with "fair" betting prices.