Proportion of India-made iPhones to double by 2024 while Foxconn’s output in China to shrink, TF Securities analyst says

Proportion of India-made iPhones is expected to reach 20 to 25 per cent of the total next year if production expansion goes smoothly, TF analyst says
Foxconn has stepped up efforts to make more iPhones in India amid rising geopolitical tensions and in the wake of the pandemic

Apple

Iris Dengin Shenzhen

Published: 8:00pm, 2 Nov 2023

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India will continue to rise as an iPhone production base in the coming years while Foxconn’s production of the Apple smartphone in China could shrink significantly, according to a research report.

The proportion of India-made iPhones, which account for 12 to 14 per cent of global shipments in 2023, is expected to reach 20 to 25 per cent of the total next year if production expansion goes smoothly, Kuo Ming-chi, a TF International Securities analyst known for his accurate assessment of Apple’s business, wrote in a note on Wednesday.

Apple’s major supplier Foxconn Technology Group, formally known as Hon Hai Precision Industry, currently operates 75 to 80 per cent of the iPhone production capacity in India, according to Kuo’s report.

Foxconn operates the world’s biggest iPhone factory at present in Zhengzhou city in China’s central Henan Province, but Kuo expects production scale there to shrink by 35 to 45 per cent by 2024. The plant’s production was seriously interrupted last year during China’s strict Covid-19 lockdowns.

Its plant in Taiyuan, northern Shanxi Province, could face a whopping fall of 75 to 85 per cent in output next year, according to Kuo’s report.

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Meanwhile, Chinese authorities are continuing probes into Foxconn’s facilities in southern Guangdong province and Jiangsu in the east, as well as carrying out on-site investigations into the company’s land use in central Hunan and Hubei provinces.

Apart from the shift to India, Foxconn’s reduction of production scale in China also comes amid the rise of competitor Luxshare, a Dongguan-based electronics manufacturer, which has had a rapid increase in Apple orders and achieved improvements to production line automation, Kuo said.

Kuo’s note echoed an earlier forecast by Taiwan’s DigiTimes Research in January that India is expected to assemble up to 50 per cent of Apple’s iPhones by 2027, up from fewer than 5 per cent at present. That will put it on par with the scale of production in mainland China, the report said.

Foxconn has stepped up efforts to make more iPhones in India amid rising geopolitical tensions and in the wake of the pandemic, which disrupted supply chains in China.

In May, Foxconn bought 1.2 million square metres of land near Bangalore city in Karnataka and it has also invested US$500 million in a facility in Telangana state in southern India to produce AirPods and other Apple products, according to a June statement by the local government.

Apple increased the number of its production sites in India to 14 last year, compared with 11 in 2021, according to the company’s latest supplier list.

The Cupertino, California-based tech giant is also expected to start the product introduction for the expected standard iPhone 17 in India in 2024, which would mark “the first time Apple has begun development of a new iPhone model outside China”, Kuo said in the note.