India’s share of global iPhone production forecast to match China’s by 2027 as Apple steps up supply chain diversification

India is predicted to account for up to 50 per cent of total iPhone production capacity by 2027, according to the latest forecast from DigiTimes Research
It is a more aggressive estimate than JPMorgan’s earlier prediction that India would assemble 25 per cent of total iPhones worldwide by 2025

Apple

Coco Fengin Beijing

Published: 6:00pm, 5 Jan 2023

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India is expected to assemble up to 50 per cent of Apple’s iPhones by 2027, up from fewer than 5 per cent at present, to be on par with the scale of production in mainland China, according to a new report.

“The speed of supply chain migration to India will be accelerated in the future because of the need to diversify risks in light of uncertainties in China’s pandemic control,” said Luke Lin, analyst at the research unit of tech-focused Taiwanese daily newspaper DigiTimes, in a report published on Tuesday.

India, which surpassed the UK last year to rank as the world’s fifth-largest economy, is already predicted to account for up to 25 per cent of total iPhone production by the end of 2023, and as much as 40 per cent by 2025, the report said.

China, where up to 85 per cent of iPhones globally were produced last year, is at risk of losing its dominant role as a manufacturing hub for Apple devices because of US-China decoupling moves, according to Lin. He expected India and Vietnam to be “the biggest beneficiaries” of Apple’s efforts to shift more of its manufacturing supply chain outside China.

Workers are seen at an assembly line inside Foxconn Technology Group’s smartphone manufacturing complex in Sri City, a special economic zone located in Tirupati district in India’s southeastern state of Andhra Pradesh. Photo: YouTube

The DigiTimes Research forecast is more aggressive than JPMorgan’s earlier prediction that India would assemble 25 per cent of total iPhones worldwide by 2025.

Taiwan-based Foxconn Technology Group, formally known as Hon Hai Precision Industry, has been one of the most aggressive Apple contractors to bolster its efforts in India. The world’s largest electronics contract manufacturer in December made a US$500 million cash injection into its Indian subsidiary, Foxconn Hon Hai Technology India Mega Development.

Other major smartphone brands are also increasing their production outside China, according to the DigiTimes report.

Samsung Electronics, for example, has been shifting more of its Android smartphone manufacturing capacity out of China since 2019, primarily to Vietnam. Samsung smartphone production in China is projected to cease in the next five years, according to the report, as Vietnam and India’s share of assembly work approaches 35 per cent to 40 per cent and 40 per cent to 45 per cent, respectively, by 2027.

02:23

iPhone 14 delays expected after days of violent protests at Foxconn Zhengzhou factory

That trend reflects how disruptions in China’s manufacturing industry, including snap lockdowns and other Covid-19-related issues, have prompted global brands like Apple and Samsung to quickly establish new supply chains across Asia.

Foxconn, which is Apple’s main iPhone supplier, has scrambled to restore full production capacity at its manufacturing complex in Zhengzhou, capital of central Henan province, following severe disruptions including worker protests that turned violent and the exodus of tens of thousands of employees amid a Covid-19 outbreak that started last October.

The world’s largest iPhone factory in Zhengzhou had gradually recovered to about 90 per cent of maximum capacity as of December 30, according to a report by state media Henan Daily that cited Wang Xue, a deputy manager at the plant.

Smartphone brands other than Apple and Samsung are also expected to see their combined manufacturing capacity in China decrease up to 50 per cent by 2027, down from around 70 per cent in 2023, according to the DigiTimes report.

India’s share of that production capacity is expected to rise up to 35 per cent in the same period, the report said. Vietnam’s share is also expected to increase as much as 15 per cent.