US AI dominance vulnerable to China amid long-term ‘structural challenges’, scholar says
China’s advantages in energy and industrial applications could erode America’s AI ‘moat’, according to University of Hong Kong academic
Li Cheng, founding director of the Centre on Contemporary China and the World (CCCW) at the University of Hong Kong, said in a co-authored paper on Wednesday that Beijing could dismantle Washington’s AI dominance within the next 10 to 20 years.
“The US AI moat still has a strategic deterrent and delaying effect on competitors in the short term, but its long-term sustainability faces multiple structural challenges,” said the paper, which featured Li as the lead author along with two co-authors.
They found that while the US maintained a decisive stranglehold in advanced chips and AI infrastructure, China had secured clear leads in energy and AI applications. Meanwhile, the gap in AI models – where the US still boasts the world’s most sophisticated systems – was narrowing to “a manageable range”, they said.
The paper highlighted China’s embrace of cost-efficient, open-source models as a major catalyst.
By driving down adoption costs, China had accelerated AI integration across its economy, the researchers said. This stood in stark contrast to the premium, closed-source models favoured by leading US firms, potentially offering China “a new strategic reference for ultimately winning the long-term technological competition”, they said.