The idea was that singles should treat themselves and buy themselves something nice. That day, Alibaba, which owns the South China Morning Post, raked in US$7.8 million in sales on its e-commerce platform.

A decade later, Singles’ Day is no longer just a novel way to drive sales. The festival has evolved into a multibillion-dollar event, dubbed the “commercial Olympic Games” by Alibaba chief executive Daniel Zhang Yong, and is watched closely by industry insiders and analysts alike as a bellwether for Chinese consumer spending.

Last year, consumers across China and Southeast Asia racked up US$30.8 billion in transactions. This year – 16 months into the official US-China trade war – analysts will be watching the headline sales data very closely to see if the world’s second-biggest economy is feeling the strain.

Even as Alibaba continues to break its own sales records with each passing year, growth in the final tallies has slowed. Last year, the final US$30.8 billion figure was just 27 per cent higher than the year before, whereas in previous years growth ranged from 40 per cent to even 100 per cent.

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“This is likely due to the slowdown of the overall economy [in China]. There might not be a big jump in growth this year, even if people tend to buy things,” said Jennifer Ye, China consumer markets leader for PwC China.

“PwC expects Singles’ Day sales to rise moderately this year, albeit at a slower pace compared with the last few years as macroeconomic uncertainty continues to weigh on consumer confidence.”

Despite the slowdown, brands both domestic and international have placed increasing emphasis on the shopping festival as a way to reach buyers in the world’s largest consumer market. Sportswear giant Nike is launching a line of four trainers as part of its Singles’ Day 2019 collection, with two designs released in the run-up to November 11 and two others launching on the day itself.

“Everybody wants to be the champion in their sector … we even worked with many brand companies to tailor-make products exclusively for November 11, with limited edition,” Alibaba’s Zhang told analysts during its recent earnings call earlier this month, stating that it has seen “very good user engagement” ahead of the festival.

“We are ready for that day and we will do all we can do to make sure we have another success on that day.”

For this year’s shopping spree, the spotlight will likely be on consumers from China’s smaller cities, who are often dubbed China’s next engine for consumption as they become more affluent and as growth in larger cities like Beijing and Shanghai slows down.

China’s major e-commerce platforms Alibaba, Pinduoduo and JD.com have all actively brought on new consumers from these less-developed areas.

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Alibaba, which today has 730 million annual active consumers across its platforms, said that new users from China’s smaller cities spend on average about 2,000 yuan (US$285) in their first year on the platform. About 70 per cent of new Alibaba users in its fiscal year ended March were from less developed areas.

“Lower-tier cities will definitely be the key driver for consumption, and this consumption potential will be [unleashed] during Singles’ Day,” said PwC’s Ye.

Over 200,000 domestic and international brands are expected to take part in this year’s spree, with over 1 million new products to be put on sale, Alibaba said. Lazada, its Southeast Asian e-commerce subsidiary, will take part for the second consecutive year across its six markets which include Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines.

Singles’ Day has also evolved from a day of massive sales to one that merges both consumption and entertainment. Each year, Alibaba holds a massive concert the day before Singles’ Day, inviting international superstars such as Mariah Carey and acts like Cirque du Soleil to perform in front of thousands, while live-streaming the concert to millions of viewers across the country.

This year’s concert will feature Taylor Swift, just months after performing at a similar Prime Day concert for Amazon in the US, as well as Chinese pop stars such as G.E.M. and TFBoys’ Jackson Yee.

The entertainment, coupled with online games that consumers can play to get vouchers and discount coupons to use in their shopping, is part of a broader “shoppertainment” trend where e-commerce platforms strive to provide an experience for consumers, as opposed to just a shopping transaction.

Since 2018, Amazon has taken a leaf out of Alibaba’s playbook, throwing Prime Day concerts as part of the event line-up showcasing its services. Like Singles’ Day, Prime Day is Amazon’s version of an online sales day that offers Amazon’s paying members a range of discounts on products and services.

“These [Chinese] e-commerce players have learned more about consumer demand for new and improved shopping experiences … such as excitement, gamification and entertainment [beyond] fulfilment of transaction needs,” said Benson Ng, EY’s Greater China digital advisory leader.

“One reason why Singles’ Day is still incomparable [with other festivals like Prime Day] has to do with the kind of connectivity that mobile platforms have in China.”

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Alibaba’s rival e-commerce platforms, such as Pinduoduo and JD.com, will also take part in the November 11 spree, with promotional campaigns and sales of their own. Last year, JD.com tallied a total of US$23 billion worth of sales over 11 days – from November 1-11.

Ahead of this year’s Singles’ Day, Alibaba has come under fire from JD.com and Pinduoduo for imposing exclusivity contracts with merchants that force them to sell their wares only on Alibaba’s platform and not others. In October, JD.com initiated a lawsuit in Beijing accusing Alibaba of abusing its market dominance.

In response, the chairman of Alibaba’s marketing and public relations committee Wang Shuai dismissed concerns that this amounted to unfair competitive practices, saying in a public statement that such exclusivity contracts were “normal” in the market and helped to maintain overall quality in the industry, providing users with a better experience overall.

Pinduoduo also launched its own campaign on November 1, with a slogan that goes “no tricks, not afraid of comparison, no need for deposit, and no need to wait”.

“At Pinduoduo, there is no scavenger hunt for discount coupons. We do not ask consumers to pay a deposit first, and delay orders and delivery to November 11, to aggregate GMV for a day,” the company said, in veiled criticism of Alibaba’s tendency to offer discount coupons to consumers and queue sales in the lead-up to November 11.