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China’s population to peak in 2021 as demographic turning point has already arrived, threatening to disrupt Beijing’s economic ambitions
- The size of China’s population already peaked this year, which is much earlier than expected, according to Trip.com Group executive chairman James Liang
- Falling birth rates, an ageing population and shrinking labour force represent headwinds that could disrupt China’s economic development
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China’s population is expected to peak in 2021 and fall steadily in the foreseeable future in a turning point for the country’s population trajectory, according to James Liang, executive chairman of online travel platform Trip.com Group and renowned demographics expert.
Liang told the South China Morning Post on Thursday that the number of births across the country fell 20 per cent to about 10 million in 2021, citing published data from local Chinese authorities, while the number of deaths could be more than 10 million this year.
“That means the size of China’s population has peaked much earlier than previously expected,” said Liang, who has been one of the country’s loudest voices calling for pro-birth policies over the years.
Chinese mothers gave birth to just 12 million babies last year, down from 14.65 million in 2019, marking an 18 per cent decline year on year and continuing the descent to a near six-decade low. That means the national birth rate dropped to a record low of 8.52 births for every 1,000 people.
The country’s falling birth rate, ageing population and shrinking labour force represent an unsettling demographic change in the world’s most populous nation and second-largest economy. These headwinds could disrupt Beijing’s long-term ambitions for economic development and technological innovation on the global stage, as the country moves to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic.
From a historical perspective, tumbling birth rates across the country show how alarming the country’s population problem has become, according to Liang. “The number of new births now represents only half or a third of the number during the years of plenty,” he said, referring to the early 1990s when China recorded annual new births of more than 20 million.
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