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US-China tech war
TechPolicy

China state think tank sees ‘targeted decoupling’ in supply chains with the West as a top risk for 2022 amid rising tensions

  • Report comes as Washington continues to restrict China’s access to strategic technologies, such as advanced chips
  • Global financial turmoil and increased tensions over Taiwan Strait also seen as key risks in 2022

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Chine think tank sees further economic decoupling between China and the West as major risk for 2022. Photo: AP
Yaling Jiang

A Chinese state think tank has listed a “targeted decoupling of supply chains” as one of the top 10 global risks in 2022, along with mutations of the Covid-19 virus, underlining how serious the issue is viewed by top scholars in the country.

The list, which also includes possible US financial turmoil amid Federal Reserve policy changes and heightened tensions over the Taiwan Strait, was produced by the National Institute for Global Strategy and the Institute of World Economics and Politics, both under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS). It indicates that Chinese academics see a partial decoupling between China and the Western world as a realistic threat as Washington continues to restrict China’s access to strategic technologies, such as advanced chips.

“The world economy made a quick recovery in 2021, with China and the US the first two countries to bounce back to pre-pandemic levels with their output,” states the institute’s report, published by the official Guangming Daily on Friday. “But the worldwide deficit remains unsolved, and the China-US stand-off has entered a long-term phase.”

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A number of US laws, including The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, The “Build Back Better” social safety net plan – both in effect – and The US Innovation and Competition Act, which is under review, are likely to cause “a targeted decoupling [from the West] of Chinese products, technology industries and regions,” according to the article. The US House of Representatives is preparing to move forward with its sweeping China competitiveness bill, after a period of delay, Bloomberg reported on Thursday.

Meanwhile, Germany and the European Union may highlight issues including human rights and climate change in supply chain management, a development that could disrupt supply chains, the Chinese think-tank predicts.
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