G20 Osaka: as China, India and Russia draw close, has Trump overplayed his hand?

With Xi Jinping, Narendra Modi and Vladimir Putin displaying increasing bonhomie, the US has cause to reflect on its trade disputes with its ally New Delhi

Traditionally, America’s backing of India as a counterweight to China has been mutually advantageous. But for India, the equation may be changing

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Chinese President Xi Jinping with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin at a BRICS summit in Goa, India in 2016. Photo: AP

Published: 8:47am, 28 Jun 2019Updated: 11:06pm, 10 Dec 2019

The scene in Kyrgyzstan must have been quite an eye-opener for Washington.

Sharing a table at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in the landlocked nation this month were the leaders of various countries to have come into the crosshairs of US foreign policy recently: Iranian President Hassan Rowhani, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping. The next day, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Xi were huddled in a bilateral meeting – the first of three planned gatherings between the pair over the next six months.

The response from Washington was swift. A day later, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo invoked Modi’s campaign slogan, Modi hai toh Mumkin Hai (“Modi makes it possible”) in trying to inject hope into the troubled India-US relationship, after fears of turbulence over trade tensions. On Wednesday, Pompeo was in India, trying to soothe nerves left frayed by recent tensions over a host of issues, including India’s imports of Iranian crude oil, its acquisition of S-400 missile systems from Russia and US tariffs.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. Photo: Xinhua

Observers say the timing is no coincidence. Ahead of a meeting between Modi and US President Donald Trump in Osaka on the sidelines of the Group of 20 (G20) summit, both sides are working to ensure escalating bilateral tensions do not do permanent damage. That aim wasn’t helped by Trump, who just as Pompeo was wrapping up his India trip, tweeted that India’s retaliatory tariffs were “unacceptable” and said they “must be withdrawn”.

But on Friday, when the two leaders met, Trump adopted a different tone and said that the two countries were “great friends” who had “never been closer.” Trump played up the meeting and said, “I think we are going to have some very big things to announce today. Some very big trade deals. We are doing some very big things with India in trade, manufacturing.”