Estimated at an initial cost of US$3.6 billion, the project was announced as a joint venture between the China Power Investment Corporation (CPIC; now State Power Investment Corporation) and Myanmar conglomerate Asia World Company.

However, in a move that surprised observers, shortly after coming to power in 2011 then President U Thein Sein announced the project would be suspended for the remainder of his term. At the time Lu Qizhou, president of CPIC, told Chinese media that he was “totally astonished” by the decision.

When Suu Kyi visited Kachin State on the campaign trail ahead of the 2015 election that brought her party to power, she stopped short of promising to put an end to the dam, but said she would make the details of the deal public. “I don’t want to make any promises now because we still don’t have any idea about it either,” she said. “We all have to find an answer for it when we reveal it.”

Myitsone dam strained Myanmar’s ties with China for years – now it may be moved

However, as her party’s first term nears its end and a crucial election looms next year, people in Kachin State have accused Suu Kyi of not listening to their voices, and say they will instead speak at the ballot box.

“Aung San Suu Kyi used to stand for the people before she came to power, but now she doesn’t,” said Ja Hkawn, who was also displaced from Tanghre because of Myitsone. “If the situation stays as it is, no one here will vote for the NLD.”

However, the government must balance the general population’s animosity towards Myitsone – something that is not limited to Kachin State, but nationwide – with the wishes of China, which continues to lobby for the project to be given the go-ahead.

In January, the Chinese Embassy in Myanmar issued a statement saying that if the Myitsone issue failed to be resolved it would “seriously hurt the confidence” of Chinese investors in Myanmar.

Associate Professor Zhu Xianghui of Yunnan University wrote in a paper recently published by Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute that the suspension of the Myitsone project had made China rethink its approach in Myanmar, recognising that its neighbour was “not a powerless state”.

After the suspension, Chinese direct investment in Myanmar tumbled from US$8.56 billion in 2011 to below US$2 billion last year, he said, as Beijing took a more “conservative and low-profile approach” to economic engagement.

In September last year, both sides signed an agreement for the China Myanmar Economic Corridor, connecting Yunnan Province with Mandalay, the biggest city in Upper Myanmar, then onwards to Yangon and Kyaukphyu, in Rakhine State, where a China-backed deep seaport is under construction.

Yun Sun, co-director of the East Asia programme and director of the China programme at the Stimson Centre, believes that a cancellation of the project along certain terms could be beneficial for both governments.

“The cancellation itself does not necessarily mean enduring and critical damage to bilateral relations,” she said.

“The key lies in what happens to the disbursed investment and interests it has accumulated. If Myanmar just cancels it without any compensation, that will not be good for bilateral relations. I have always called for its cancellation on mutually acceptable terms and for the two countries to move on,” she said.

As the election nears, there is still no indication as to whether the project will be allowed to go ahead, although in a speech in March Suu Kyi hinted it could by urging people to take “a wider perspective” on the issue.

Thousands protest against China-backed Myitsone mega-dam in Myanmar

Monywa Aung Shin, a member of the NLD, said he did not know what the government’s decision was, and that Suu Kyi, as well as members of the party’s Central Executive Committee, would decide.

“The Myitsone Dam project is important for [the Belt and Road Initiative] and the China Myanmar Economic Corridor. If we implement the [economic corridor], we need foreign investment. We can’t implement economic zones without electric power,” he said, adding that those were his personal views and not those of the party.

Zhu, from Yunnan University’s Institute of Myanmar Studies and the School of International Relations, said Chinese state-owned firms were under pressure to adapt to the “new political climate” in Myanmar and had begun to change their behaviour, for example by conducting public relations activities and taking some measures to address the environmental and social impact of projects.

Zhu argued that Chinese firms had diversified the industries they were investing in, including in manufacturing, infrastructure, connectivity and energy projects such as wind and solar.

He said the result of next year’s election would affect China’s approach in Myanmar, arguing that Beijing would “pay close attention to the outcome for signs of how it should proceed with future investment projects”.

However, back at Aung Myithar, the women displaced by the project are yet to be convinced by this change in approach and have said they will continue to campaign for it to be cancelled, and hope one day to be able to return home.

“This project should not happen, it is impossible,” said Ja Aung, 36. “There is no reason for us to accept this project, nobody wants it.”

This Week in Asia has reached out to both the State Power Investment Corporation and Asia World Company for comment. ■

Additional reporting by Win Zar Ni Aung