“I’m right now with a big [restaurant] group that can perhaps ride this out. My heart goes out to the smaller businesses who go day to day.”

Philippines declares public health emergency, tells people not to touch Duterte

On Luzon, only one person in every household is allowed to leave home to purchase necessities such as food. Only the private establishments providing the necessities, such as food markets, hospitals and banks, can stay open. Shopping centres, such as the popular SM Mall of Asia, have been closed and mass public transport facilities have been suspended. From Friday, all airports in Luzon will not operate outbound international flights, dealing a blow to the struggling aviation industry.

Similar policies have been implemented in other parts of the Philippines, such as the islands of Mindanao and Visayas, limiting the movements of the citizens there and the operations of businesses, leading to closed shops and workers left without jobs.

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Analysts expect the Philippines’ economy to be battered as the global economy continues to worsen.

The Stock Exchange Index plunged by 13.3 per cent on Thursday, closing at the lowest level since January 2012 amid concerns that the government’s 27 billion peso (US$528 million) fiscal package to bolster the economy and help citizens financially was not enough.

Foreign investors have sold US$480.5 million net of Philippine stocks this year, according to Bloomberg, while a report by JP Morgan last Saturday forecast that the Philippine economy for this year would only see a year-on-year growth of 5.1 per cent, instead of the 6.2 per cent it estimated earlier.

Luis Corral, vice-president of the Associated Labour Unions-Trade Union Congress of the Philippines, said the government must urgently help those who were out of jobs.

“No one at this time can estimate the fallout in terms of possible job losses except to state the obvious, that we fear it may be deep and enduring,” Corral said in an interview.

Last week, the National Economic and Development Authority estimated that up to 60,000 people working in the tourism industry would lose their jobs. Corral feared the actual figure would be even higher.

“The enhanced community quarantine has shut down almost all businesses in Luzon, and the Visayas and Mindanao are following suit except for the frontline health care sector, groceries, selected bank branches as well as nonbank financial intermediaries and pharmacies,” he said.

In the fiscal package, 2 billion pesos (US$39 million) have been set aside for social protection programmes for workers. Another 14 billion pesos would be used to help the tourism sector, while 3.1 billion pesos would be on items aimed at stopping the outbreak, such as buying Covid-19 test kits.

Maria Ela Atienza, a professor from the University of the Philippines Diliman, questioned why about half the money in the government’s fiscal package was spent on tourism.

“The economy will definitely take a blow as a result of the Covid-19 and the lockdown … the priority right now should be on containing the spread of the virus, support for the public health system, and social support for all who will be displaced and affected,” said Atenza, the head of the social science department. “This is a wake-up call for institutions and the public who have long been neglected social welfare and public health support.”

She criticised the government for not giving clear guidelines on how the lockdown would be implemented. Some of those who still have to work needed to walk because public transport was suspended.

Gideon Lasco, an academic and newspaper columnist, said a 2018 study found that one in two people in the Philippines are on some form of food insecurity – for example not having enough food to eat – and the situation would be much worse during the outbreak.

“We could be facing a humanitarian crisis, unless decisive action is taken. For instance, offering emergency cash subsidies, ensuring access to food and basic services,” he said in an interview.

“Ultimately the Philippine economy will be hard hit too, just like the rest of the world, but my foremost concern is the informal sector and those for whom ‘no work, no pay’ applies,” Lasco said. “This is no longer a question of whether we will be affected, but how we will protect those affected the most.”

Philippine health workers fear virus exposure without proper equipment

Meanwhile, in Boracay island, a popular tourism destination in Western Visayas known for its white-sand beaches, restaurateur Nowie Potenciano is worried.

He runs several outlets that have been closed. The virus has been a double whammy for him and other business owners because for six months in 2018, the whole island was shut for a clean-up. Back then, Potenciano said he ran pop-up stalls in Manila so his staff could earn their keep. This time, he has had no choice but to ask them to go on leave.

“The past few weeks have obviously been difficult, especially because we have to come to terms with closing again so soon after we were shut down for six months earlier,” he said. “It’s even a little scarier now, because there’s no precedent to this and we have no idea when it will end.”