India is coming under strong pressure from Group of Seven nations to reverse its surprise ban on wheat exports, but a change of heart looks unlikely as global food inflation is surging and a relentless heatwave is scorching crops. It was only three weeks ago that Prime Minister Narendra Modi told members of the Indian diaspora in Germany that India stood ready to help plug the wheat supply void created by the Russia-Ukraine war and “feed the world.” Some agriculture analysts said at the time Modi’s offer might be too generous given India’s 1.4-billion population and crops that were shrivelling due to the premature arrival of summer. But the government ploughed ahead, announcing wheat-selling trade missions to nine countries last week. A day later, though, in a sudden U-turn, it prohibited wheat exports to protect “food security” which it said was at risk due to soaring global food prices. It wasn’t a total ban as the agriculture ministry pledged to honour existing contracts and allow government-to-government sales to “friendly” countries to “meet their food security needs.” Why did India, the world’s second-largest wheat producer after China , suddenly leave the world in the lurch and prioritise domestic consumption over exports? First, the widely tracked consumer price index published in those intervening 24 hours showed April inflation at an eight-year peak of 7.79 per cent with food prices up a worrying 8.3 per cent – affecting India’s hundreds of millions of poor. High wheat prices hit Asia’s street food favourites, from roti canai to ban mian Wheat inflation was nearly 10 per cent. April wholesale price inflation, released this week, hit a record 15.1 per cent with wheat again a key driver. Also, the worst heatwave since records first started being kept in 1901 across northern India and Pakistan caused significant crop losses. Despite the weather office’s welcome forecast that India’s annual monsoon will arrive early and be “normal” for a fourth straight year, the government decided to take no chances. India’s export ban, which sent international wheat prices to fresh highs, brought immediate G7 condemnation as fears grew about the global food crisis spiralling out of control. “If everyone starts imposing export restrictions, that would worsen the crisis,” German Agriculture Minister Cem Ozdemir said. US Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack called India’s action “the wrong thing at this time.” China, though, whose mantra has long been food self-sufficiency, swung to New Delhi’s defence, despite being in a bitter border military stand-off with its neighbour. “Blaming India won’t solve the food problem.” Instead, ask why major wheat-exporting G7 nations don’t seek to “stabilise food market supply by hiking their exports?” the nationalist tabloid Global Times said in an editorial. China, which like India has its own painful famine memories, is listed by the International Food Policy Research Institute, a Washington think-tank, as one of more than a dozen countries that stepped up food protectionist policies since the start of the war. The question being asked in India is why the government fired up the world’s hopes when farm experts had been repeatedly warning about the crop impact of the brutal heatwave that began in March. India had always been a bit player in the global wheat export market, accounting for around one per cent of international trade. But Russia ’s attack on Ukraine , known as Europe’s breadbasket, and rising global prices due to droughts and flooding in other grain-growing nations, made Indian wheat competitive for the first time in years. “If this ban occurred in a normal year, the impact would be minimal but the loss of Ukraine volumes exacerbates the issues,” said Andrew Whitelaw, a grains analyst at Australia’s Thomas Elder Markets. New Delhi wanted to take advantage of high prices and increased demand to export a national record 10-15 metric million tonnes of wheat – which would have made it one of the top 10 wheat exporters globally for the 2022-23 season. It exported a record of just over 7 million tonnes last year. But last week, the government cut its total wheat output estimates by 6 per cent to 105 million tonnes from an earlier forecast of 111.3 million for the June-ending crop year. Government officials say the estimate may be reduced further to 95 million. India produced 109.6 million tonnes in the 2020-21 crop year. The government projects India will need 99 million tonnes to meet domestic demand this year and 7.5 million set aside as a minimum buffer. The government has existing stocks of 18.9 million tonnes. Also, the government’s wheat procurement for its food distribution scheme is expected to be only half of this season’s target. Reflecting the shortfall, the government plans to reduce wheat allocation and hike rice allocation. India’s food security law requires the government distribute cheap grains to more than 810 million people. India’s wheat export curbs threaten to send global food prices higher Before the export ban, domestic wheat prices had risen to record highs as farmers held out for better deals from traders. In spot markets, wheat prices climbed 60 per cent month-on-month to Rs 26,000 (US$335) per metric tonne, way more than the government-set price of Rs 20,150 rupees (US$260). To the government’s relief, the export ban is having the desired effect of cooling domestic prices. Hunger and food security has always been one of India’s biggest challenges since gaining independence from Britain in 1947. The UN estimated India’s poor in 2019 at 364 million or 28 per cent of the population. The pandemic is believed to have pushed tens of millions more people into poverty. “It’s not possible for India to permit unbridled wheat exports because we don’t [know] when we could face domestic problems. A monsoon could fail, then there’s climate change,” said independent food policy analyst Devinder Sharma. “We don’t know when we could be left with a begging bowl asking the world for food supplies,” he said. A just-released study by the UK’s Met Office highlighted the extreme temperature risks now facing the subcontinent. Using computer models, scientists said climate change had made intense heatwaves in India and Pakistan a staggering 100 times more likely. There’s also the cautionary memory of when India exported large amounts of wheat for several years at the start of the century, then had to import wheat at a high cost in 2006/2007 to meet the needs of its public food distribution programme and rebuild its buffer stocks. India’s food ministry said this past weekend its plan to export wheat “through government channels would not only ensure fulfilling the genuine needs of our neighbours and food-deficit countries, but also control inflationary expectations.” Modi’s dilemma: keep Indian voters happy or feed the world But now as figures emerge about wheat stocks, some analysts are questioning how much India will be able to export after fulfilling its existing export contracts as supplies will be tight. While the government has said the ban can be reviewed, Nomura Securities said it could “be long-lasting, if global food prices remain elevated” which seems likely. Last month, even before India’s ban, the World Bank forecast wheat prices would increase 42 per cent over last year to US$450 a tonne. Deepanshu Mohan, associate economics professor at India’s OP Jindal Global University said India’s reversal meant its reputation as a “credible exporter of essential commodities” had taken a heavy knock. But Sharma said: “I’m glad wiser heads finally prevailed on exports.”