US to remain key ally of Asean despite Iran war fallout: diplomat

The US war on Iran has triggered the worst energy crisis in memory and punched a hole in Southeast Asia’s energy-importing economies. Still, a top former US diplomat insists America remains a dependable ally and will be central to the region’s trade and security for years to come. The Trump administration’s attack on Iran had inflicted pain on Southeast Asian allies dependent on Middle Eastern energy imports, said Ambassador Daniel Kritenbrink, a former assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs. Speaking to This Week in Asia hours ahead of Tuesday’s fragile two-week ceasefire, he warned the pain caused by the spike in energy prices – including oil that had soared above US$100 a barrel for weeks – was far from over. “It’s going to get worse before it gets better,” said Kritenbrink, who served under former president Joe Biden and is now a partner at The Asia Group, a Washington-based consulting firm. But Washington would remain an indispensable ally, he said, with few signals that Southeast Asia would shift closer to China as a consequence of the White House’s unpredictable trade and security policy. “I think Washington still has extraordinary influence in the region, the trade and investment flows haven’t changed and the fact that the US military is present here, helping to guarantee peace and stability hasn’t changed,” Kritenbrink said. “If you look at the fundamentals, when you’re talking about a US$2 trillion trading relationship between the region [and] the United States, it remains the largest investor in almost all of these countries.” Beijing has looked on as Trump’s White House has launched daily tirades and threats to Tehran – as well as its own Nato allies. Many experts say the volatility emanating from Washington has been highly damaging to both its allies and America’s reputation. “There are questions about America’s reliability and credibility. That’s out there,” Kritenbrink said. “But I’m not predicting dramatic shifts one way or the other.” Asean is one of Washington’s largest trade partners, with two-way goods trade alone rising to about US$580 billion in 2025, according to the Office of the US Trade Representative. China, however, is the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ dominant trade partner, with goods trade worth US$772.4 billion in 2024. China has not promised to share its fuel stocks with its Southeast Asian neighbours, while restricting exports of crucial fertilisers made scarce as the Strait of Hormuz was closed. Looking ahead, Asean governments will inevitably renew focus on renewable energy and diversifying sources to prevent their economies from being held hostage to someone else’s war. But the Iran war has so far created only limited opportunities for China in Southeast Asia. “Southeast Asia is not tilting decisively towards China,” said Liew Chee Yoong, an associate professor of finance at UCSI University Malaysia. “Rather, it is intensifying hedging strategies to navigate a more uncertain and volatile global environment.” While Washington’s war on Iran may raise concerns, it does not fundamentally erode its credibility in the region. “Southeast Asian states continue to engage both powers pragmatically,” Liew said. But analysts warn there is no masking the damage inflicted on Southeast Asia, as the impact extends far beyond energy and governments scramble to adjust to the crisis. “Much of the region is not resilient enough to handle major geopolitical and economic shocks,” said Oh Ei Sun, principal adviser at Pacific Research Centre in Malaysia. As fuel prices spiked within days of the first attack on Tehran, Asean foreign ministers moved swiftly to respond, convening a special meeting on March 13 to discuss the fallout. The ministers called for an immediate end to hostilities and respect for international law, while focusing on risks to the Asean economy and energy markets. The summit was hosted by the Philippines, this year’s Asean chair, which has declared a national emergency as a fuel crunch bites that has left jeepneys off the roads and forced airlines to suspend flights. “The concern is a given,” Philippine trade undersecretary Allan Gepty told reporters. The war is being felt in Southeast Asia less as a geopolitical turning point and more as an external shock to fragile economies, reviving memories of the pandemic’s damage to livelihoods, according to Jaideep Singh, an analyst at the Institute of Strategic & International Studies Malaysia. “The Middle Eastern crisis manifests first and foremost as a supply chain and energy shock, with policymakers expressing concern over economic resilience above all other potential considerations,” Singh said. Apart from Malaysia and Brunei, most Southeast Asian nations are still net fuel importers, prodding governments into crisis mode as they mitigate inflation, subsidise fuel prices and prepare for slower economic growth. One unintended consequence of the Iran war is the rehabilitation of Russian oil on global markets, sanctioned by the US following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. On March 13, Washington issued a 30-day waiver for countries to buy sanctioned Russian oil stranded at sea. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called this a step to stabilise global energy markets, a move that partially eased oil prices in Asia after the announcement. But Kritenbrink said the splurge on Russian oil would not automatically open the door to greater Russian influence in the region. “It’s a sign that this is an extraordinary period, and countries are going to take extraordinary steps to protect their interests,” he added.

US to remain key ally of Asean despite Iran war fallout: diplomat

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Ambassador Daniel Kritenbrink says the US still has ‘extraordinary’ influence in the region, given its trade and security ties with Asean

Ambassador Daniel Kritenbrink says the US still has ‘extraordinary’ influence in the region, given its trade and security ties with Asean