Place your bets: Polymarket wades into Malaysia’s Johor poll

Days before Johor state heads to the polls, gamblers on the crypto-powered betting exchange that emerged as a barometer of political sentiment during the last US election have already called it. On Polymarket, bettors have priced Barisan Nasional (BN) as an overwhelming favourite to retain control of Malaysia’s southern gateway to Singapore. As of Wednesday afternoon, the coalition stood at a 92.8 per cent chance of winning the most seats in Saturday’s vote – dwarfing Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s Pakatan Harapan (PH) at 4 per cent and the opposition Perikatan Nasional, at under 1 per cent. More than US$25,000 has changed hands on the bet so far. A second market, tracking who will become the next chief minister, tells a similarly lopsided story: caretaker leader Onn Hafiz Ghazi is given a 94 per cent chance of keeping his job, way ahead of rivals Hasni Mohammad, Muhyiddin Yassin and Sahruddin Jamal, who are bunched at 9 per cent apiece, and Maszlee Malik at 6 per cent. That market has drawn a comparatively modest US$700 in trades. Polymarket and so-called prediction markets like it have unsettled regulators from Jakarta to Hong Kong. The platforms let users “trade” on the outcome of real-world events much as they would a stock, with prices set not by pollsters or forecasters but by the collective wagers of its own users. Indonesia has already blocked the site over gambling concerns, but Malaysia, so far, has not followed suit. BN won Johor by a landslide at the last state poll in 2022, claiming 40 – a commanding two-thirds majority – against 12 for PH, three for PN and one for youth oriented party Muda. With BN and PH contesting all 56 seats this time around, Anwar’s own federal coalition partners find themselves squaring off against each other even as they share power in Putrajaya. Beyond the politics, Johor also carries outsized economic weight as anchor of the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone, meaning the result will be scrutinised by businesses with stakes in cross-border labour, data centres and transport infrastructure. Oracle or gamble? Polymarket became a Wall Street talking point in 2024 after its users appeared to anticipate Joe Biden’s withdrawal from that year’s US presidential race, in a moment of apparent prescience that briefly lent the platform an air of oracle-like authority. Its reputation was quickly complicated, however, by revelations of large, anonymous overseas accounts pushing Donald Trump’s odds higher. Polymarket later said the trader in question was a French national with financial-sector experience, adding it found no evidence of manipulation. Across Asia, prediction markets have been met with a regulatory backlash. Indonesia blocked Polymarket outright in May, after bettors began wagering on whether President Prabowo Subianto might leave office before his term ends in 2029, behaviour that a ministry official described as “betting and speculation over events that are inconclusive”. Singapore, India and Brazil have also banned similar platforms outright, while access is heavily restricted in Thailand, Japan, mainland China and Taiwan. Hong Kong’s Investor and Financial Education Council issued its own warning earlier this year, cautioning that prediction-market trading “may constitute illegal gambling”. Malaysia’s regulators are also watching closely. Deputy Communications Minister Teo Nie Ching has warned that anyone who publicises or promotes “a gambling place” could fall foul of the country’s existing laws. Polymarket does not always get it right, either. In Thailand, prediction markets and surveys alike pointed to a possible win for the progressive People’s Party in February’s election – only for Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s Bhumjaithai Party to storm to victory with 194 seats in the 500-member House of Representatives.

Place your bets: Polymarket wades into Malaysia’s Johor poll

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}As the Malaysian state heads to the polls, a prediction market banned elsewhere in Asia gives one coalition a 93 per cent chance of winning

As the Malaysian state heads to the polls, a prediction market banned elsewhere in Asia gives one coalition a 93 per cent chance of winning