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An iron and steel plant in the Erdaojiang district in Tonghua, China. Photo: Bloomberg

Explainer | Explained: how climate change will affect Asia

  • In 2017, China, India and Japan were ranked first, third and fifth among the world’s worst polluting countries
  • However, developing countries have argued they should be allowed to continue increasing emissions as they industrialise
Asia’s vast population and the frequency of natural disasters ensure climate change will have a devastating impact in the region. Yet it is also a hotbed for the human activities that cause global warming: Asia is home to three of the world’s top five polluters: China, India, and Japan.
The transition towards non-emitting sources of energy has been uneven, with some countries, like India, becoming global champions of renewables, while others, like Japan, doing little to address the emissions problems.

How much does Asia contribute to the global warming?

Population booms ensure Asia emits more carbon dioxide (CO2) – one of the main causes of the Earth’s rising temperature – than any other region.

In 2017, China, India and Japan were ranked first, third and fifth among the world’s worst polluting countries, according to the Global Carbon Project. China’s emissions alone account for a quarter of global CO2 emissions.

However, when emissions are calculated on a per capita basis, Japan is the only Asian country to rank among the world’s top five. Historically, North America and Europe accounted for half the CO2 emitted since the Industrial Revolution, while China and India accounted for just 14 per cent.

Due to these historical differences, developing countries have argued they should be allowed to continue increasing their emissions as they industrialise, while developed countries should curb their emissions as soon as possible.

The 2015 Paris Climate Agreement included a provision for developed countries to provide financial support for emerging states to transition from fossil fuels to renewables, starting at US$100 billion a year from 2020.
Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. Photo: AP

How will climate change impact Asia?

Asia is regularly identified as one of the regions that will be hardest hit by the global warming. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change noted that Asia’s large population, the frequency of natural disasters in the region, and a sometimes chaotic process of urbanisation, with population relocation to coastal cities, as some of the factors that make Asia especially vulnerable to the risk of climate change.

Rising temperatures have caused Himalayan glaciers to melt, increasing the risk of floods and landslides during monsoon season. Long-term, permanent disappearance of the glaciers could affect the flow of major Asian rivers, including the Yangtze, the Mekong and the Brahmaputra.

Cyclones and typhoons – such as Haiyan, which left more than 6,000 dead in the Philippines in November 2013 – are becoming stronger due to increased temperatures at sea. Casualties from heatwaves are also expected to increase.

Why Philippines’ Super Typhoon Haiyan was so deadly

The World Bank has forecast that more than half of South Asia will see a decline in living standards due to rising temperatures, impacting agricultural production and likely triggering mass migration. Even if emissions can be reduced, 375 million people could still be affected in the next 30 years.

Melting polar ice caps mean the sea level is expected to rise between one and three metres by 2100. In China’s coastal areas, the population at risk by a one-metre rise stands at 23 million people, while a three-metre rise would affect 52 million people. Up to 71,000 square kilometres of Chinese coastal areas could be left underwater.

Indonesia might similarly see up to 5.1 million people displaced if the sea level raise, while over a quarter of Vietnam population could be affected.

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Such a rise in sea levels would also cause typhoons to intensify, creating a specific threat to several Asian cities such as Jakarta, Manila, Bangkok, Yangon, Saigon and Surabaya.

The surge can also have an impact on food supply. Much of the low-lying deltas in South and Southeast Asia, that produce 88 per cent of the world’s rice supply, are under risk of disappearing under the sea.

In Vietnam, just half a metre rise can endanger most of the Mekong River Delta, that cultivates half of the country’s rice supply, says the Asia Foundation.

The Philippines town of Marabut was hit hard by Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. Photo: EPA

What are Asian countries doing to tackle the issue?

The Paris Climate Agreement was signed by 195 countries in an ambitious attempt to prevent global temperatures rising 2 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels. The US has since withdrawn from deal but most countries remain committed.

China, in particular, has presented itself as an international climate champion and aims to invest US$361 billion in renewable energy between 2016 and 2020. It is on track to meet its key targets by 2030 – this includes increasing the percentage of non-fossil fuels in its energy mix to 20 per cent and capping annual carbon dioxide emissions by 2030.

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However, China’s consumption of coal remains an issue. After China’s CO2 emissions plateaued between 2013 and 2016, they rose again in 2017 and 2018, as local governments invested in infrastructure, including coal power plants.

In Japan, the government’s climate change policy has been criticised as insufficient.

“In 1997, Japan was at the forefront of climate action,” wrote Michiyo Morisawa, director of the Japan office of the Carbon Disclosure Project, an environmental NGO. “Fast forward 21 years and Japan has struggled to make significant progress on reducing its own emissions.”

Japan closed its nuclear reactors after the 2011 Fukushima meltdown, although some have since reopened. This “nuclear vacuum” has been filled coal plants, which supply one-third of Japan’s electricity.
Japan has struggled to make significant progress on reducing its own emissions
Michiyo Morisawa

On a more positive note, Japan plans for all cars sold in the country to be electric or hybrid vehicles by 2050. By 2030, the country has targeted a 22 per cent share of renewables in its electricity mix and aims to reduce emissions 26 per cent from 2013 levels.

India successfully developed a thriving renewables industry and has promised to increase renewables to 40 per cent of its power generation by 2030. In 2018, 74 per cent of the added power capacity of the country was based on renewable energy, mainly solar.

Indonesia, where forest burning accounts for 60 per cent of emissions, is another of Asia’s top polluters. Jakarta has committed to cutting emissions by 29 per cent by 2030 but forestry-related emissions have increased. The country’s latest energy plan favours coal-fired power plants over renewables and gas, even as other countries in Southeast Asia have started to promote more sustainable sources of energy.

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