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Agence France-Presse

 
Unrest in coup-hit Myanmar has thrown the spotlight on some of the country’s armed ethnic groups, after three of them threatened the junta with retaliation for its deadly crackdown on protests.
Some analysts are warning the crisis could spiral into even more conflict if the insurgents follow through on their threats.
Independence from British colonial rule in 1948 left a complex patchwork of cultural, ethnic and linguistic groups in Myanmar.
In the decades since, a messy struggle has worn on in different regions over autonomy, ethnic identity, drugs, jade and other natural resources. The conflicts have pitted rebel groups against the Myanmar military, which is dominated by the Bamar ethnic group.
Could Myanmar’s ethnic armed groups turn the tide against the junta, with help from Beijing?
WHO ARE THESE GROUPS?
An estimated one-third of Myanmar’s territory – mostly the border regions – is currently controlled by 20-odd armed rebel outfits, according to the International Crisis Group.
Key groups include the United Wa State Army, the Karen National Union, the Kachin Independence Army, the Arakan Army, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army and the Myanmar Nationalities Democratic Alliance Army.
Since 2015, 10 armed groups have signed a nationwide ceasefire agreement with the civilian government after Myanmar’s tentative democratic transition following decades of military rule.
But fighting continued in some pockets, particularly Kachin and Shan states in the north, and Rakhine state in the west, often with civilians trapped in the middle.
The Kachin conflict has continued since 2011 after a 17-year ceasefire broke down, displacing at least 100,000 people. And in Rakhine, years of fighting between the Arakan Army (AA) and the military has killed hundreds and forced more than 200,000 to flee their homes.


With a standing force of 25,000, the China-backed United Wa State Army is one of the world’s largest non-state militaries.
But it largely sticks to its autonomous enclave on the northern border and has so far had little involvement in the aftermath of the coup.
Shan State is home to several organisations allowed unofficial autonomy in an uneasy agreement with Myanmar’s military.
It is also home to much of Myanmar’s methamphetamine production – reportedly a key source of income for some rebel groups.
Why are Myanmar’s anti-coup protesters angry at China?
COUP CONDEMNATION
Several rebel groups were swift to condemn the February 1 coup which ousted civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi.
The Karen National Union (KNU), the oldest insurgent group in Myanmar, said the coup would harm the country.
And the Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS) in the north said the military had violated “all norms of democracy” and could not be trusted.
As the junta cracked down hard on anti-coup protests over recent weeks, hundreds of people fled to eastern areas controlled by the KNU, who sheltered them.
 

JUNTA STRIKES BACK
Over the weekend, the junta launched air strikes in Karen state – the first such strikes in 20 years – targeting the Fifth Brigade of the KNU after the group seized a military base.
On Tuesday, three groups – the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, the Myanmar Nationalities Democratic Alliance Army and the Arakan Army – issued a joint statement threatening retaliation over the ongoing military repression of protests, which led to more than 500 civilian deaths.
The ICG describes the Arakan Army as an effective fighting force that has inflicted “heavy casualties” on the Myanmar military in Rakhine state.


CIVIL WAR FEARS
Debbie Stothard of the International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH) warned that if rebel groups such as the Arakan Army followed through on their new threats, the situation could degenerate towards civil war.
“On the one hand, the junta does not want to give in and on the other hand, demonstrators who were largely peaceful until now are tempted to call for help from the armed rebel groups to protect themselves,” she said.
 


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Myanmar’s ethnic armed groups, and why their threats against junta could spiral into more conflict

Soldiers from the Ta’aung National Liberation Army, which was one of three ethnic armed groups in Myanmar to threaten retaliation over the ongoing military repression of protests. Photo: AFP

Burning ruins are seen in Day Bu No village in eastern Myanmar following an air strike after the Karen National Union (KNU) seized a military base. Photo: AFP

Myanmar coup: from Chinese to Christian to Buddhist, most people of different faiths and ethnic groups unite to defy junta

A street protest in Kalaymyo, Sagaing division, Myanmar, on March 1. Monks in Myanmar have to accept whatever food their worshippers serve, but this monk holds his begging bowl upside down, to show he would not accept donations from the military junta. Photo: Sanguk Cung

Myanmar's leader Aung San Suu Ky, center, meets with Prime Minister of Japan Shinzo Abe at a cocktail party before a banquet hosted by Abe and his spouse Akie Abe on Oct. 23, 2019 in Tokyo, Japan. Suu Kyi has been detained in an early-morning raid, Reuters reported. (Alan Jianlan Zhai/Pool/Getty Images/TNS)

Pastors leading the anti-junta movement in Kalaymyo, Chin state, Myanmar. Photo: Sanguk Cung

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A wounded civilian fleeing the violence in Myanmar is carried on a stretcher to receive medical treatment across the Thai border. Photo: Reuters

‘You don’t dislodge people with guns by shouting at them’: quiet talks offer best hope for end to Myanmar violence, say Asean scholars

A Myanmar security officer points his gun at protesters in Yangon, on March 19. Photo: AP

Myanmar security officers wielding shields and guns march towards the site of a protest in Mandalay Technological University in March. Photo: Reuters

Protesters run as tear gas is fired during a crackdown by security forces on a demonstration against the military coup in Yangon on March 19. Photo: AFP

Indonesian president Joko Widodo, centre, has called for or a special ‘high-level meeting’ of Asean to discuss Myanmar. Photo: Zuma Wire/DPA

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Supporters of National League for Democracy (NLD) party take part an election campaign rally in Yangon. Myanmar will hold its general election on November 8. Photo: EPA-EFE

epa08754583 A person stands beside his trishaw, which is decorated with National League for Democracy (NLD) party flags, during campaigning in Yangon, Myanmar, 18 October 2020. Myanmar scheduled to hold general elections on 08 November. EPA-EFE/NYEIN CHAN NAING

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About 20 rebel outfits, including the United Wa State Army, Karen National Union, Kachin Independence Army and Arakan Army, control a third of Myanmar’s territory
Several have condemned the February 1 coup which ousted civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi, and have threatened the junta with retaliation



Unrest in coup-hit Myanmar has thrown the spotlight on some of the country’s armed ethnic groups who control an estimated third of the country’s territory. Here is how some of them fit into the Myanmar puzzle.


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Explainer | Myanmar’s ethnic armed groups, and why their threats against junta could spiral into more conflict