Explainer | Philippine presidential election campaign begins: who’s running, who’s hottest, and what’s their South China Sea approach?
- Three-month campaign period is now under way, with a 13-page list of prohibitions aiming to ensure peaceful, fair election takes place on May 9
- Ferdinand Marcos Jnr, a front runner, favours bilateral approach to South China Sea while current VP Leni Robredo prefers multilateral approach
There will be no more cash giveaways, guns firing money, real guns and armoured vans now that the official campaign period for the Philippine presidential elections has started.
The three-month period will be marked by a 13-page list of prohibitions aimed at ensuring a smooth and peaceful election on May 9.
Some of what is banned is easily understandable: candidates are not allowed to buy votes, public officials cannot release funds, and those who want to carry firearms need special permits from the election commission (Comelec).
Other bans are more puzzling, such as placing a bet on the election outcome (allowed in some other countries) and riding in an armoured “land, water or air craft”.
What ‘tricks’ have raised eyebrows so far?
In a Philippine election, the months before the official campaign begins are marked by candidate behaviour that raises many an eyebrow, at home and abroad. In October, presidential candidate Manny Pacquiao openly handed out wads of cash and groceries to residents affected by a 2020 volcanic eruption.
He said he was not vote buying, but giving assistance. Later, though, he admitted he was taking advantage of the fact that the campaign period had not yet started.
A candidate for vice-governor, Luis “Chavit” Singson, went one better than Pacquiao: he shot 1,000 and 500 peso bills from a gun-like cash dispenser at a crowd that frantically scrambled to scoop up the money. He told the media he did it to make people “happy”.
On February 2 vice presidential candidate Sara Duterte, daughter of president Rodrigo Duterte, toured the southern island of Mindanao while peering out of the roof hatch of a custom built commanding black van fitted with powerful speakers.
She said the machine – which resembled an armoured vehicle used by banks to move money around – was lent to her by Singson.
From February 8, though, candidates will have to think of other, less blatant gimmicks, with restrictions on everything from the size of posters and where they can be placed, to the number of candidates allowed to appear in rallies.
Why is the internet so important?
Because of the pandemic, a lot of the campaigning will take place virtually, but most people can, it seems, be reached; according to a March 2021 Globe Telecom study, “regardless of income class, Filipinos are now online”, including the very poor.
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The study showed that the richest 10 per cent of the population were 100 per cent online, while from 80 per cent to 90 per cent of the lowest “D” and “E” income classes were also intermittently online, using prepaid internet connections provided by mobile phone companies.
Globe Telecom also noted that in 2011, mobile data penetration was only 24 per cent. Last year, it was 75 per cent.
What positions are candidates running for?
The election will see Filipinos vote for officials from the very top office of president all the way down to town councillors. The campaign period for president, vice-president, senators and congressmen will run from February 8 until May 7. For all other candidates, it will be from March 25 to May 7.
Who is running for president, and any women?
There are 10 candidates: former evangelist Ernesto Abella, labour rights activist Leody de Guzman, social democrat Norberto Gonzales, former police general Panfilo Lacson, businessman Faisal Mangondato, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jnr (the son of the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos Sr), cardiologist Jose Montemayor Jnr, actor Isko Moreno, ex-boxer Manny Pacquiao, and vice-president and lawyer Leni Robredo, the sole woman.
But the race is rapidly boiling down to two main contenders: Marcos and Robredo.
So, what about these front runners?
Marcos, the only son and namesake of the murderous strongman who looted and impoverished the country, ranked high in recent polls. His position has led many to see the election as a climax to his clan’s efforts to reclaim political dominance. The late dictator and his family were chased out of the country by a peaceful “people power” uprising in 1986.
But Marcos Jnr, 64, is not necessarily a shoo-in for the position. In 2016 he ran for the vice presidency and looked all set to win it but ultimately lost – to Robredo.
He is facing several disqualification cases at Comelec because he lied about the fact he is a convicted tax evader. And, a few years ago, media revealed he had been lying about his education when he claimed he earned a Philosophy, Politics and Economics degree at Oxford. In fact, he failed a preliminary exam and was only awarded a ‘special diploma’, with no academic value, from the British university.
Marcos Jnr is also proving to be an incoherent speaker, unable to handle discussions or tough questions, which has led his handlers to keep him away from debates.
Meanwhile, Robredo’s numbers have been slowly rising, moved by a wave of popular enthusiasm. A human rights lawyer, economist and former congresswoman, she adapted pink as a signature colour on the advice of followers. The colour has captured the imagination of voters as a symbol of opposition and reform.
Robredo, 56, wants to restore her country’s liberal traditions after Duterte’s human rights violations during his crackdown on drugs and his attempts to erode democratic institutions.
What are key promises?
Robredo promises to revive the pandemic-hit economy with a 192 billion pesos (US$3.7 billion) jobs scheme and allocate 50 billion pesos (US$972 million) a year to house the poor.
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Moreno, currently the mayor of Manila, aims to halve tax on fuel and electricity, but at the same time increase the amount spent on education, housing and small businesses. He has not said where he expects to find the money for these additional expenses.
Pacquiao promises to continue Duterte’s drug war but without extrajudicial killings, ask five billionaire friends to invest locally, and hire only Filipinos.
What are their stances on South China Sea?
Marcos, whose dictator father established relations with China, is expected to continue Duterte’s policy of setting aside a maritime international ruling in favour of closer ties with Beijing, preferring the bilateral approach.
Robredo says she is open to joint exploration for oil and gas deposits with China as long as Manila’s sovereignty in EEZ (exclusive economic zone) and territorial waters is recognised. She also calls for a multilateral approach to the dispute.
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Moreno says he is open to the Philippine government awarding Chinese oil exploration companies a service contract in the country’s EEZ. But he also says he cannot “blame” China for claiming parts of the Philippine EEZ.
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How many Filipinos will be voting?
Comelec announced that as of late December, 65.7 million people in the Philippines had registered as voters, with another 1.6 million living abroad also registered. Around a third (20.4 million) are aged between 18 and 30, while 52 per cent (32.2 million) are aged 31 to 59 years. Fourteen per cent (9.1 million) are aged 60 or above.
This year’s elections have around 10 million more locally registered voters than the 2016 presidential election. It seems more Filipinos, probably dissatisfied with the current state of affairs, want a say on who will be their next leader.
