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From left, presidential candidates Yoon Suk-yeol, Ahn Cheol-soo, and Lee Jae-myung. Photo: EPA-EFE/Yonhap

Explainer | South Korea election: who’s running and where do they stand on North Korea, China and the US?

  • Lee Jae-myung of the liberal Democratic Party of Korea and conservative People Power Party candidate Yoon Suk-yeol are locked in a tight race
  • Winner of March 9 ballot could reshape Seoul’s US-China balancing act, amid escalating rivalry between Washington and Beijing
South Korea
Voting plans in South Korea are being reworked ahead of Wednesday’s polls to elect the country’s all-powerful president for a five-year single term.

The revamp was needed after early voting was marred by long waits outside polling stations for coronavirus sufferers, while other voters received ballots already marked.

A record turnout of nearly 37 per cent in two-day absentee voting that ended on Saturday highlights a tight race in which Lee Jae-myung of the ruling Democratic Party faces off against Yoon Suk-yeol of the conservative main opposition People Power Party.

As daily COVID-19 infections hover near unprecedented levels above 200,000 and more than 1 million receive treatment at home, parliament passed a legislative amendment to ease in-person voting by such patients.
Voters at an early polling location for the presidential election inside Seoul Station in Seoul, South Korea, on Friday. Photo: Bloomberg

But chaos erupted at many polling places during Saturday’s special early voting for infected voters, prompting repeated apologies from the National Election Commission (NEC) for failing to ensure a stable and orderly process.

President Moon Jae-in asked the NEC for an explanation, and to guarantee all people’s right to vote, while opposition candidate Yoon’s campaign called for its chairwoman, Noh Jeong-hee, to step down.
South Korean lawmaker Song Young-gil (L) meets with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (R) in Beijing, China, in January 2017. Song was taken to hospital on Monday after being hit in the head by a hammer by a stranger. Photo: EPA/YONHAP
The race took another twist on Monday when the chief of South Korea’s ruling party was admitted to hospital after being hit on the head by a stranger. Song Young-gil was struck on the head with a small hammer-like tool, wielded by a man wearing a traditional robe who approached him from behind, a video uploaded to YouTube by a Democratic Party campaigner showed.

Once ballots are counted from Wednesday’s wider vote, the results could have international repercussions due to the substantial foreign policy differences between the ruling liberal camp and the conservative opposition party.

“Divide and contempt against rivals amid the aggravating polarisation of the country’s politics are deeper than ever, with election campaigns marred by sleaze and scandals,” said Choi Jin, head of the think tank the Institute of Presidential Leadership.

Lee Jae-myung, the presidential election candidate of the ruling Democratic Party. Photo: AP
“Whoever wins this election, he would face a raft of daunting tasks – heal the wounds from the divide, improve living standards and provide new jobs, navigate through the mounting rivalry between the United States and China and rein in North Korea developing nuclear-tipped missiles,” he said.

Who’s running, and who are the front runners?

Two leading contenders among the 12 candidates are Lee Jae-myung of the ruling liberal Democratic Party of Korea and Yoon Suk-yeol of the conservative opposition People Power Party, who are locked in a tight race.

Lee, a 57-year-old human rights lawyer and former Governor of the country’s largest Gyeonggi province, is a rare rags-to-riches story whose childhood poverty forced him to toil at a factory where he had his left arm shattered under a machine.

He is a self-professed champion of the poor and underprivileged, espousing bold social welfare projects including free grants worth some one million won (US$837) per year for every young person.

His eloquence and sharp tongue earned him both fans and opponents who accuse him of populism.

Yoon Suk-yeol, the presidential candidate of the opposition People Power Party. Photo: EPA-EFE/Yonhap

Lee’s arch-rival Yoon spent 27 years as a state prosecutor, playing key roles in throwing former conservative presidents Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye into jail.

Although appointed as the powerful prosecutor general in 2019 by the liberal president Moon Jae-in, the 61-year-old Yoon fell out of favour with Moon when Yoon ordered an investigation into Cho Kuk, Moon’s potential successor who was spearheading efforts to cut the wings of the country’s powerful state prosecutors.

After punishing two former presidents and standing up against the serving president, Yoon projects an image of a champion of justice and fairness among his supporters but obstructions are his inexperience in administration and his incapacity to speak without scripts.

Yoon recently received a boon when a conservative candidate, Ahn Cheol-soo, called it quits and threw his support behind Yoon. That moved angered many of Ahn’s erstwhile supporters who backed the medical doctor/IT expert-turned politician because of their disenchantment with the country’s highly polarised politics led by the two main parties.

Ahn Cheol-soo, the presidential candidate of the minor opposition People’s Party. Photo: Kyodo

What are the key issues?

Major issues of the election include domestic problems such as soaring housing prices, unemployment, inequality and small businesses hit hard by the pandemic.

Young voters had a tendency to vote for liberals in the past but housing problems and high unemployment rates caused many of them to tilt toward the conservative People Power Party.

Gender issues are also prominent, with Yoon offering to abolish the gender equality ministry on the basis that South Korean women do not suffer “systemic gender discrimination” although data indicate otherwise.

Seoul’s costly housing market at centre of South Korean election

Anti-China sentiments sparked by an aggressive China and the pandemic is also affecting voters, especially some young voters who regard the liberal government as too deferential toward China.

Security issues also loom large, including nuclear-armed North Korea and Seoul’s increasingly difficult balancing act in the face of mounting rivalry between its traditional ally the United States and its largest trading partner China.

North Korea on Saturday conducted its ninth missile launch this year, performing tests needed to develop a spy satellite, indicating the country intends to conduct a prohibited long-range rocket launch soon under the pretext of putting a satellite into orbit.

How Ukraine could sway South Korea’s election of ‘the lesser of two evils’

Russia’s aggression in Ukraine also brought to highlight the stark reality that the country faces one of the world’s most militarised countries armed with nuclear weapons and backed by China and Russia, which is now threatening to end its self-imposed moratorium on long-range missiles and nuclear testing.

Both conservative and liberal candidates support dialogue and economic cooperation with the North but they differ over conditions and sequence of such engagement.

Yoon sticks to conservatives’ stance that economic exchanges with the North should come only after it is denuclearised first, a rigid condition that has made the North abandon diplomacy under the past Lee and Park government.

He also says he would scrap the 2018 inter-Korean agreement aimed to defuse cross-border military tension unless the North stops its aggressive attitude.

North Korea conducts second ‘important’ spy satellite test

He dismisses liberals’ efforts to bring about an end-of-war declaration involving the two Koreas, China and the United States as “appeasement” that would only weaken Seoul’s defence posture.

Yoon suggests the redeployment of US tactical nuclear weapons in the South and even a “pre-emptive strike” in case North Korea’s nuclear and missile attacks appear to be imminent.

He also calls for the resumption of massive joint military exercises with the United States, which have been scaled back as a part of Moon’s engagement policy with North Korea since 2018.

During TV debates earlier this month, Lee, who poses himself as a pragmatist, accused Yoon of seeking to “intensify confrontation rather than to avoid war and create peace”.

A man looking at posters of South Korea’s presidential candidates in Seoul on Sunday ahead of the March 9 presidential election. Photo: AFP

“It is important to win a war but it is more important to win without a war and the most important thing is to create an environment where there is no need to go to war,” Lee said.

Lee supports the outgoing president’s policy of engagement, vowing to step up Seoul’s efforts to mediate between the United States and North Korea and meet both President Biden and Kim Jong-un to resolve the crisis.

He suggests simultaneous, reciprocal steps by the US that are to be strangled over different stages, under which sanctions are eased on the North on condition that it takes tangible steps toward denuclearisation in the first stage.

But Such sanctions would be brought back immediately if it fails to abide by the deal under a “snapback” clause.

How will Seoul manage US, China, Japan?

South Korea finds itself on the horns of a dilemma as the United States is stepping up efforts to contain an aggressive China. Seoul has to rely on Washington, its ally for its defence against the North and consider potential economic retaliations by China, the country’s largest trading partner, should it side with the United States too closely.

South Korea’s China ties in focus as presidential elections loom

Yoon wants to align South Korea’s diplomacy more closely with the United States, accusing Moon of damaging its alliance with Washington by pursuing a “subservient pro-China, pro-North Korea diplomacy”.

Citing the need to deter North Korean missile threats against the Seoul metropolitan area, Yoon has called for more deployment of the highly sophisticated US missile defence system known as Thaad, which China sees as a security threat to its own security.
Yoon also proposed that South Korea participate in the Five Eyes intelligence sharing grouping as well as working groups for the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue or Quad.

South Korea eyes new missile shield to replace US system that angered China

Lee says Thaad, which is intended to intercept middle and long range missiles, is impractical to defend Seoul which lies only 24km from the nearest point from the border with the North, saying the South has technology and resources to build up its own missile defence.

Lee denies he is soft on North Korea, vowing to continue building up deterrence and to seek US technical cooperation for building nuclear-powered submarines.

Seoul suffered billions of dollars of economic damages when China retaliated against Seoul’s 2016 decision to deploy Thaad.

South Koreans worry Ukraine crisis will slow North Korean denuclearisation

Lee backs President Moon’s “three no policies” under which Seoul will not further deploy Thaad, will not join the US-led global missile defence system and will not participate in a military alliance involving the United States and Japan.

During the first TV debate on February 3, Yoon said he would meet the US president first before holding summits with Japan, China and North in that order, while Lee only said he would meet “the most necessary man at the most useful moment”.

Yoon accused Moon’s liberal government of “ruining” relations with Japan by pursuing ideologically biased policy toward Tokyo.

He wants strengthened military ties with Japan within the framework of a tripartite military alliance led by the United States.

In an interview with the Joongang Ilbo daily last year, Lee said such a tripartite military alliance involving Japan could be “very dangerous” as long as Japan sticks to its claim over Dokdo and its “militaristic” tendency.

Additional reporting by Reuters

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