What would the US do if Beijing decided to take Taiwan by force?
Polls show only a minority of Americans would favour US soldiers fighting to defend Taiwan, but a decision by Washington not to intervene in a Taiwan Strait conflict would represent a dramatic shift in US strategy
As China’s soft power proves ineffective, Beijing relies more heavily on coercion to force political unification on Taipei. China will continue in the coming years to enlarge the gap between its total military power and that of Taiwan, but this observation does not get at the heart of the problem Beijing faces.
Are the US and China headed for war over Taiwan?
Beijing might attempt unification through military means other than invading Taiwan, such as capturing smaller islands claimed by Taipei, imposing a blockade of its ports and main airport, launching cyberattacks against its information and communications infrastructure, and cratering parts of the island with missile attacks.
The problem for China is that these methods still rely on the Taipei government choosing to surrender. Historically, governments and societies under attack become more defiant rather than submissive. Judging from the reaction of Taiwan’s people to Japanese colonisation beginning in 1895 and to the imposition of Kuomintang rule beginning in 1945, Taiwan would not be an exception.
For US and China, the real friction over Taiwan is yet to come
The only sure way to compel Taiwan’s surrender would be for PLA soldiers to occupy Taiwan’s major cities. But even as China’s military capabilities improve, the chances of success in an all-out invasion of Taiwan are low – even if the United States did not intervene on Taiwan’s behalf. China would need to ferry its troops, most of them packed into slow-moving and highly visible ships, across the 160km wide Taiwan Strait, where they would be highly vulnerable to attack, and then unload them and huge amounts of ammunition and other supplies while trudging through sand or mud and under heavy fire. China has the capacity to transport only a few tens of thousands of troops at a time. Much of this force would not make it across the strait. Awaiting the survivors would be 180,000 active duty Taiwanese soldiers plus 1.5 million reservists.
