India-Pakistan crisis: Modi is gambling with nuclear stakes
- The tensions between nuclear armed neighbours India and Pakistan may have eased slightly, but misjudged political rhetoric could still force them into a dangerous spiral
New Delhi reciprocated within hours, with a statement read out by a senior Indian military officer that committed the country’s army to “maintaining peace and stability in the region”.
Don’t be fooled. The India-Pakistan crisis has only just begun
The statement reserved the right to “continue to act against agencies who harbour inimical designs against India”, but the prospect of a full-blown shooting war between the two nuclear-armed adversaries is clearly receding.
Adding to the pressure to calm tensions was China, a long-time supporter of Pakistan, which spoke out on Thursday about the need to respect sovereignty and warned against actions that violate international norms.
For China, 62 billion reasons to be cautious in India-Pakistan crisis
He was to become a useful bargaining chip in Islamabad’s repeated calls for de-escalation.
Modi’s government also faced tough questions over whether it had achieved its strategic objectives, which represented a departure from the country’s long-held doctrine of “strategic restraint”.
Pakistan has denied the air strikes actually caused the casualties that India claimed, a narrative which has been picked up in several international media reports.
Ultimately, New Delhi’s decision to de-escalate will have rested on its conviction that it had sufficiently demonstrated its resolve to punish Pakistan for terrorist attacks from groups based within its borders. Whether the Indian Air Force hit its targets or not, it demonstrated its ability to strike deep within the neighbouring country.
Why India should choose peace with Pakistan, instead of provocation
New Delhi has, as a condition for de-escalation, demanded Islamabad take action against these groups.
Yet that would require an unlikely about-turn by the Pakistani security establishment, which has already signalled its reluctance. Asked by CNN on Thursday whether JeM chief Masood Azhar was in Pakistan and would be detained, Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi confirmed that Azhar was in the country, but said he “is unwell to the extent that he cannot leave his house” and that the country’s judiciary would need further evidence of his guilt before a prosecution could go ahead.
A worrying dimension to this crisis has been the role of the media and social media in inflaming jingoism and aggression on both sides of the border. With the potential for escalation already high, the flames of hatred fanned on social media from both sides have made the crisis progressively more difficult to control. ■
A former Indian Army colonel, Ajai Shukla is an analyst and commentator on defence and security affairs