US-China rivalry will continue to roil Asia – even as Beijing and Washington avoid military clash
- Defence chiefs Patrick Shanahan and Wei Fenghe showed they were open to cooperation and hinted at a level of mutual understanding on security issues at the recent Shangri-La Dialogue
- But neither side will cede ground on security priorities so the Sino-US strategic stalemate will continue to shape regional diplomacy
Another year, another Shangri-La Dialogue. Discussions at the premier international security forum in Asia covered a range of issues: climate change, cybersecurity and the South Pacific island states’ security.
However, long-standing security challenges continued to dominate, particularly those involving great power rivalries. The stand-off between China and the US on various issues has played out publicly in recent months, but the summit in Singapore once again demonstrated the benefits of quiet, behind-the-scenes diplomacy.
Three key takeaways reflect the focus of this year’s summit as well as the ongoing challenges likely to define regional diplomacy in the short term.
Tamping down rhetoric
The first and fourth plenary sessions featuring US Acting Secretary of Defence Patrick Shanahan and Chinese Minister of National Defence General Wei Fenghe respectively were perhaps the most anticipated.
Neither Shanahan nor Wei offered radically new strategic perspectives of the present and future international order. There was, however, a contrast in the tone underpinning their speeches.
Shanahan avoided explicitly mentioning China in his discussion of the US Indo-Pacific strategy, and the language was far more mild than in the recent Indo-Pacific Strategy Report published by the US Department of Defence.
On the other hand, Wei’s speech was tough, although nuanced. He emphasised China’s hardline position on contentious issues that have shaped its relationship with the US: trade, Taiwan and the South China Sea. However, his speech also hinted at the possibility of cooperation.