Will Narendra Modi’s snub of Xi Jinping’s belt and road derail China-India ties?
- The Indian prime minister refused to back the Chinese leader’s ambitious global infrastructure vision at a summit last week, but the apparent snub is not getting in the way of amicable ties between Asia’s two biggest economies
But the jury is still out on whether it will pay off, especially given the historical distrust and the baggage that both countries carry.
ROAD BUMPS GALORE
In the last week alone, there have been at least three flashpoints in the Sino-India relationship.
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The Maldives’ decision to build the observatory was first mulled in December 2017, raising the Indian establishment’s hackles as it would have given China a presence in the region.
Yet, despite all this, there has been no let down in engagement levels between Modi and Xi. Both leaders are expected to meet at the RIC summit on June 29 to 30, and have at least two more meetings planned this year alone – an informal Xi-Modi summit in India in October and the BRICS summit on November 13 to 14.
For Narayani Basu, a New Delhi-based author and independent foreign policy analyst with a special focus on China, such sustained engagement between the two countries signals a new level of maturity.
“There has been a fairly successful attempt at delinking historical geopolitical and territorial issues from issues which are economic in nature,” Basu said. “As a result, the BRI and border issues have not managed to overshadow the remaining business between the two countries.”
STRONG LEADERS, STRONGER AGENDAS
The approach might also have to do with where both leaders currently stand.
Basu said Sino-India ties were also being guided by the personalities of both leaders – strong, with harder-than-before agendas.
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“They both came back on agendas based on consolidation of power, protection of sovereignty and nationalism. These are all issues that will not allow either side to blink easily. “So, even as both leaders are looking to move forward, they also do not want to compromise on their core issues – primary among them being territorial sovereignty,” she said.
In his SCO summit speech, Modi brought up territorial sovereignty as a thinly veiled reference to China’s BRI, saying India only supported connectivity projects that are based on “respect of sovereignty” and “regional integrity”.
Sana Hashmi, an analyst with Perth-based think tank Future Directions International and author of China’s Approach Towards Territorial Disputes: Lessons and Prospects, agreed that India was not letting historical issues get in the way of its relationship with Beijing.
“But to make sure this does not affect the relationship, PM Modi and President Xi are meeting numerous times,” Hashmi said. “The message is loud – India’s opposition to the BRI does not mean India will allow adversarial relations to develop between the two.”
A NEED FOR EACH OTHER
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In such a context, a stronger relationship between the two Asian giants might be in mutual interest.
Basu said the scope for the relationship to deliver on, especially economically, is vast.
“Despite the chemistry, India and China’s promises to each other on the economic front haven’t materialised on the ground. Major projects as well as investments in each country are stuck.”
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