Mike Pompeo set for first visit to Thailand as US looks to renew ties despite junta leader Prayuth Chan-ocha retaining grip on power

Washington downgraded relations with Bangkok after Prayuth’s 2014 coup, which the administration of former president Barack Obama condemned
But now the ex-general has been democratically installed following March’s disputed elections, has everything been forgiven?

Thailand

Jitsiree Thongnoi

Published: 7:00am, 31 Jul 2019

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US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will begin his first visit to Thailand on Thursday as part of a week-long tour of the Indo-Pacific that will include stops in Australia and Micronesia.

His visit comes as the country emerges from five years of military rule, with coup leader Prayuth Chan-ocha retaining power after being voted prime minister by his ruling coalition following March’s disputed election. His new cabinet was confirmed after being approved by Thailand’s king earlier this month.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Photo: AFP

The United States condemned Prayuth’s 2014 coup and subsequently downgraded defence ties, raising questions over whether Washington will be satisfied by Thailand’s return to democracy – especially amid allegations of electoral fraud and a vote that was widely considered to be rigged in the junta’s favour.

But as Bangkok has leaned ever closer to China in the years since the army seized power – with increased arms deals, investments and economic cooperation – the US has expressed readiness to work with Thailand again, and support the country as it assumes the role of chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) this year.

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“The advent of the Trump administration marked a distinct sea change in terms of US relations with Thailand. Gone were US priorities regarding human rights and democracy, hallmarks of President Obama’s foreign policy,” said Paul Chambers, a lecturer and adviser on international affairs at the Centre of Asean Community Studies in Thailand.

“With the US seeking to embrace Thailand as it casts a wary eye on China, a bevy of US arms deals have rained down upon Thailand, from Harpoon missiles and Black Hawk helicopters to Stryker ICVs, at terms incredibly favourable to Bangkok.”

In May, the Thai army confirmed it would buy 37 Stryker infantry carrier vehicles from the US worth 80 million baht (US$2.6 million) each, following earlier purchases of RGM-84L Harpoon Block II anti-ship missiles and four Black Hawk helicopters worth 750 million baht each in 2017.

Thailand bought four Black Hawk helicopters from the US in 2014. Photo: Reuters

Chambers said these deals could be the pretext for increased cooperation between Thailand and the US in the Indo-Pacific, although Washington’s strategy for the region differs from Asean’s in both scope and objectives.

America’s “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” strategy “represents the Trump administration’s attempt to counter growing Chinese military and economic might across East Asia”, according to Chambers, while Asean’s “Outlook Toward the Indo-Pacific” is focused more on “cautious cooperation” with the US and other partners such as Japan, Australia, India, France and Britain.

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Pompeo is expected to outline increased cooperation with Thailand in defence and other areas during his trip. He arrives in Bangkok on Thursday, when he will co-chair a ministerial meeting of the US-Asean Lower Mekong Initiative.

A severe drought currently affecting the region is expected to be high on the agenda, although it is unclear to what extent Pompeo will address the issue when “Trump has in the past not shown much interest in addressing environmental issues”, Chambers said.

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“Pompeo’s visit symbolises Washington’s attempt to forge stronger ties with not only Thailand but also other Southeast Asian countries despite that region’s authoritarian trend,” he added.

On Friday, Pompeo will deliver remarks at the Siam Society, meet the Thai foreign minister and take part in ministerial meetings of the East Asia Summit and the Asean Regional Forum.

Thai foreign minister Don Pramudwinai, who Pompeo is set to meet on Friday. Photo: EPA

Michael Montesano, from the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute’s Thailand Studies Programme, said Pompeo “will doubtless try to use his visit to Bangkok to cultivate Thai support for the so-called Indo-Pacific strategy”.

“To do so, [he] will need to make a nuanced appeal to Thais concerned that their country has fallen too far into China’s embrace, and he will need to convince them that some level of participation will help them balance Thailand’s foreign relations appropriately,” Montesano said. “The problem is that Pompeo is not known for nuance.”

The recent nomination by Trump of Michael DeSombre, worldwide president of Republicans Overseas, as the next ambassador to Thailand raises questions about America’s changing commitments to the region, according to Montesano.

If confirmed by the Senate, DeSombre will become the first political appointee – as opposed to a career diplomat – to serve as the country’s top envoy to Bangkok since 1975.

Appointing “a corporate lawyer with no demonstrated expertise on Thailand or Southeast Asia and no diplomatic experience” indicates a change in “tone of US-Thai relations” towards “crude and cynical transactionalism”, with the US paying “far less attention to political developments in Thailand”, Montesano said.

“We can understand [Pompeo’s] visit as a sign that Washington will try to put relations with Bangkok on a more normal basis, and to suspend for now judgment on the state of Thai democracy,” he said.

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: Pompeo set to mend fences on Thai visit

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