Coronavirus Indonesia: infections could reach 1 million despite lower official tally, expert warns

Indonesia’s official caseload remains below 200,000 but one epidemiologist claims low testing rates make this number inaccurate

The country has already reached another grim milestone, as more than 100 doctors have died while fighting the pandemic

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An Indonesia government officer wears a face shield during a protective mask use campaign in Banda Aceh. Photo: EPA

Published: 2:00pm, 3 Sep 2020Updated: 2:17pm, 3 Sep 2020

Indonesia is poised to reach 1 million Covid-19 infections, an epidemiologist has warned, despite the official tally reflecting only a fraction of that total. Meanwhile, more than 180 health care workers, including more than 100 doctors, have died fighting the pandemic in Indonesia, which has one of the world’s highest fatality rates among medical staff.

The Indonesian Health Ministry’s website on Wednesday reported 3,075 new cases, bringing the country’s total to 180,646. Its 7,616 deaths are the most in Southeast Asia.However, according to Iwan Ariawan, an epidemiologist from University of Indonesia, Indonesia’s low rate of testing means the more accurate caseload could be between five times and 10 times the official figure.

“When the accumulated cases that are reported [reach] the 200,000 region, the real total number of accumulated cases … is highly likely to have reached 1 million,” Iwan said.

According to Our World in Data, an online scientific publication that works in collaboration with University of Oxford researchers, Indonesia has one of the world’s lowest per capita testing rates, testing 58 people per 1 million population daily. By comparison, Malaysia tests 315 people per 1 million population daily.

In August, Indonesia added 66,420 new cases, an increase of 61 per from July. At that rate, Indonesia’s official caseload could reach 200,000 in coming weeks.

The spread of infection has increased rapidly in Indonesia, with 17 per cent of tests producing positive results. That rises to almost 25 per cent outside Jakarta. According to the World Health Organisation, more than 5 per cent of tests producing positive results indicates the outbreak is not under control.

The recent Eid Fitr and Eid Adha holidays as well as Independence Day celebrations have been identified as factors in the increased number of infections.