Why a delay to South Asia’s monsoon could mean more heatwaves, and spell ‘bad news’ for the world’s rice supply
- Climate change is increasingly impacting monsoon’s rainfall distribution with more intense rainy days interspersed with dry patches affecting crops
- The region’s climate is likely to be of global importance as India, Thailand and Vietnam are the world’s top three rice suppliers
South Asia is bracing for delayed onset of monsoons next month and erratic rains from June to September, which could prolong a heatwave and hit rice production in the world’s top supplier.
The Indian Meteorological Department said the annual monsoons, which account for 70 per cent of the country’s rains, are expected to hit the southern state of Kerala on June 4, instead of the usual June 1.
El Nino and La Nina are two opposing climate patterns over the Pacific Ocean. La Nina generally brings cooler, wetter weather, while El Nino heralds hotter, drier conditions. Climate models globally show a “high chance” of El Nino returning in June and replacing La Nina.
“We think the monsoon may get delayed and there are several reasons for that are not allowing the currents to set in,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice-president of meteorology and climate change at Skymet Weather. “If it gets delayed by four to five days, then the temperature will not subside.”
The monsoon’s onset has been disrupted by an anticyclone over the Arabian Sea as well as cyclone Fabien’s appearance over the Indian Ocean, Palawat said. Wind direction over the Bay of Bengal may also deviate in early June, he added.
We are transitioning from a La Nina winter to an El Nino summer. This tends to be bad news