Heatwaves to hit China once every 5 years as global extreme weather events multiply, study finds

The results of the World Weather Attribution study paint a grim picture for the planet’s future unless more is done to urgently phase out fossil fuels
‘Tens of thousands of people will keep dying’ from heat each year if the world doesn’t ‘invest in decreasing vulnerability’, one scientist warned

Climate change

Biman Mukherji

Published: 1:00pm, 25 Jul 2023

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Record-breaking heatwaves that have scorched North America, Europe and China are set to worsen in future unless the world stops burning fossil fuels, according to a study by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) academic initiative.

As a result of climate change, China is now 50 times more likely to experience heatwaves that previously occurred only once in 250 years, the study said. Such severe heat in North America and Europe, meanwhile, is virtually unprecedented.

Scientists crunched weather data and computer model simulations – taking into account the 1.2-degrees Celsius (2.2 degrees Fahrenheit) rise in average global temperatures since the late 1800s – to conclude that heatwaves are no longer rarity because of fossil fuel use.

“Events like these can now be expected approximately once every 15 years in North America, about once every 10 years in southern Europe, and approximately once every five years in China,” the WWA study said.

Tourists walk under a mist machine at a coffee shop to cool down in Athens, Greece on Sunday. Photo: Xinhua

Friederike Otto, senior lecturer in climate science at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, said the results of the study were “not surprising”.

“The world hasn’t stopped burning fossil fuels, the climate continues to warm and heatwaves continue to become more extreme. It is that simple,” she said.

“We still have time to secure a safe and healthy future, but we urgently need to stop burning fossil fuels and invest in decreasing vulnerability. If we do not, tens of thousands of people will keep dying from heat-related causes each year.”

Temperatures of above 45 degrees Celsius (113 degrees Fahrenheit) hit southern Europe, parts of the United States, Mexico and China in July, setting ablaze forests and causing the biggest surge in hospitalisations since the pandemic in parts of the world.

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Across Asia, the heatwaves have been made worse by El Nino, a weather phenomenon that results in hotter, drier spells and disrupts rainfall patterns.

The new study was conducted for WWA by seven researchers, including scientists from universities and meteorological agencies in Britain, the Netherlands and the US. The analysis focused on the periods when the heat was most dangerous in each region: July 1-18 in the US and Mexico, July 12-18 for southern Europe and July 5-18 in China.

Climate change made the heatwaves hotter than they would otherwise have been: the European heatwave was 2.5 degrees hotter, North America’s was 2 degrees and China’s was about 1 degree higher, according to the study.

If average global temperatures rise to 2 degrees above those of pre-industrial times – an inevitable outcome unless every nation that was a signatory to the Paris Agreement honours their net-zero pledges – such heatwaves will become more common, the WWA said.

Firefighters and paramedics wheel a resident to an ambulance during a heatwave in the US state of Arizona last week. Photo: Bloomberg

The Paris Agreement set out a global framework to avert dangerous climate change by limiting global warming to well below 2 degrees and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5 degrees. Presently, 194 states and the European Union are signatories.

But scientists say world leaders are running out of time to frame legislation for the phasing out of fossil fuels, ahead of the next UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, to be held from November 30 to December 12 in Dubai.

The WWA study comes in the wake of a G20 meeting held in western India’s Goa last week. The meeting issued a statement on energy transition that disappointed climate scientists for not setting a timeline to phase out fossil fuels.

Siddharth Goel, senior policy adviser at the International Institute for Sustainable Development, said the G20 nations ought to have found a way to fulfil their pledge to eliminate fossil fuel subsidies, which exceeded US$1 trillion in value last year.

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“It’s disappointing that the issue of fossil fuel subsidies remains absent from the agenda and that there is no call for a fossil fuel phasedown while extreme weather events are multiplying across the globe,” he added.

Others said the negotiations were becoming fraught with national interests.

“The decision text shows how some countries with large fossil-fuel interests have pushed to maximise false solutions even whilst aiming for net-zero goals,” said Aarti Khosla, director of research-based consulting and capacity building initiative Climate Trends.

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Climate activists were also dismayed by the failure to reach an agreement in Goa on COP goals, including tripling the world’s renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency.

“As we approach COP28 in Dubai later this year, we must ensure policymakers are clear-eyed about the climate emergency, and commit to a concrete ambition to triple global renewable installations by 2030,” said Ben Backwell, CEO of Global Wind Energy Council.