Can Cop28 elbow out fossil fuels amid ‘aggressive’ plan to triple renewable energy by end of decade?

Climate activists say increasing renewable energy is likely to push fossil fuel producers to expand their markets under the pretext of energy security

Targeting more renewable energy without limiting fossil fuel production is likely to slow the clean energy transition, a goal of many fossil fuel producers

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A man walks past a “#COP28” sign in Abu Dhabi. Over 60 countries have already agreed to back the deal, spearheaded by the European Union, United States and United Arab Emirates, to triple renewable energy this decade ahead of the summit. Photo: Reuters

Published: 1:30pm, 28 Nov 2023Updated: 1:33pm, 28 Nov 2023

Global leaders are expected to thrash out a pact to triple renewable energy output at the Cop28 summit in Dubai on November 24-29, but such a deal would ultimately be unproductive if they cannot agree on a path to simultaneously phase out fossil fuels, analysts say.

“For some governments, it is a loophole where they are going to say, ‘We are going to aggressively pursue renewable energy’. But the bit they don’t say is that’s in addition to fossil fuels,” said Polly Hemming, director of the Australia Institute’s Climate & Energy programme.

More than 60 countries have already agreed to back the deal, spearheaded by the European Union, United States and United Arab Emirates, to triple renewable energy this decade ahead of the summit, according to a Reuters report.

A deal to significantly boost renewable energy has been in the making since the beginning of the year, and in September, the Group of 20’s New Delhi declaration included an agreement to triple its production. However, member nations have failed to agree on a timeline to reduce fossil fuels output.

Climate activists say increasing renewable energy will not automatically push out fossil fuels, which have been the biggest contributor to global warming. Instead, fossil fuel producers are likely to step up their backchannels and expand markets under the pretext of energy security.

Fossil fuel lobbyists will be “hard at work at the Cop space” trying to showcase ways to address climate change concerns without limiting fossil fuel production, Sunwoo Lee, head of international climate unit at South Korean non-profit group Solutions for Our Climate, said in a webinar by non profit organisation Global Gas & Oil Network last week.

These would likely include solutions such as carbon capture and storage technology “which a number of scientific reports have dismissed”, she said. Carbon capture technology stores emissions from industrial processes and burning fossil fuels deep underground.