Why Trump’s trade war is a blessing in disguise for Chinese leaders
Tariffs and the US president’s bluster are tightening the screw, but could be a much-needed reminder of China’s real strength and limitations
Some people in China believe Trump may not want a deal on trade at all, as he wants to play the China card to energise and solidify his electoral base in the run-up to the US midterm elections in November and his presidential re-election campaign in 2020.
Trump is increasingly seen in China as a bogeyman who uses trade as weapon to undermine the country’s authoritarian regime and contain its rise.
Is he indeed? Let me go against the grain by arguing that the Trump presidency could in fact prove a blessing in disguise for Chinese leaders, as they are deliberating on effective ways to move forward with the economy at a time of great uncertainty – partly fuelled by his trade war.
Over the past few months, Chinese state media have started to portray Trump and the trade hawks in his administration as harbouring ulterior motives to use trade and investment restrictions as excuses to stymie China’s progress and derail its efforts to become a world power capable of challenging the global supremacy of the US.
The underlying message is Trump and his cohorts are to blame for the current mess in bilateral ties; some Chinese analysts have even privately expressed hopes that he can be waited out, that the Trump presidency could be an aberration and he could be voted out of office in 2020.
This line of thinking is naive, to say the least. The reality is the current occupant of the Oval Office makes no difference, as the great power rivalries between China and the US are set to define their bilateral ties for decades to come. Four decades after Beijing and Washington restored ties and tried hard to emphasise cooperation over confrontation, the pent-up frustrations and hostilities from both sides have finally come to the fore.
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By contrast, Trump has killed the TPP deal and his administration has not made much noise on Xinjiang.
Meanwhile, Trump’s constant moves to antagonise US allies – including the rest of the G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and Britain) as well as South Korea and Japan – through disputes over trade or how to share military expenditure have made them scramble to mount their defences against the US. That in turn has dismayed US elites who wish Washington would lead a united front to target and pressure China.
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True, some have argued that Trump’s problems with America’s allies are akin to family squabbles, and once they patch up they would again try to form a coherent strategy to oppose China.
But waning confidence in the US leadership and its apparent withdrawal from the international stage have given Chinese leaders the time and opportunity to expand the country’s political and economic influence overseas and recalibrate its foreign-policy approach.
Even more importantly, Trump’s trade-war antics and the ensuing intense debates in China have inadvertently served as a much-needed reminder of China’s real strength and limitations for Chinese leaders and the people as a whole.
US officials have used such propaganda to put more pressure on China, and this pressure has made many Chinese people more clear-headed about the country’s own pitfalls and the folly of over-the-top propaganda.
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This has prompted China to tone down propaganda over its so-called achievements and undertake a more realistic approach towards the trade war with the US.
Wang Xiangwei is the former editor-in-chief of the South China Morning Post. He is now based in Beijing as editorial adviser to the paper