-
Advertisement
US-China trade war
This Week in AsiaOpinion
Tom Holland

Abacus | China has a golden opportunity to become Asia’s monetary power

As Beijing reduces its reliance on the US dollar for international trade, it may be seeking to overcome the yuan’s credibility problem by anchoring it to gold

Reading Time:4 minutes
Why you can trust SCMP
If China is unsure of earning enough US dollars to pay for its imports, it no longer makes sense for Beijing to manage the value of the yuan against the US dollar. Photo: Kyodo
Donald Trump wants to shrink the United States’ trade deficit. In particular, the US president wants to cut America’s bilateral trade deficit with China.

That presents Beijing with a problem. The US$375 billion merchandise trade surplus that China ran with the US last year was far bigger than the US$165 billion overall current account surplus it ran with the rest of the world.

In other words, China needs the US dollars it earns by selling goods to America to pay for all the technologies it needs to license from other countries, and all the capital goods, hi-tech componentry and raw materials it must buy to power its economic development, including the 9 million barrels of oil it imports every day from the rest of the world.

Advertisement

With the Trump administration now aiming to squeeze China’s vital supply of US dollars, Beijing will be forced to react to the threat.

There are several ways it could do this: it could accede to Washington’s trade-war demands, it could drastically scale back its imports from the rest of the world, or it could seek an alternative means of payment to the US dollar. There are no prizes for guessing which way China is heading. Beijing is not going to comply with the demands of the economic hawks in Washington, who want it to curtail its state subsidies to industry; the government’s “Made in China 2025” industrial development policy is far too closely associated with President Xi Jinping for that to be politically realistic.
Advertisement
Advertisement
Select Voice
Select Speed
1.00x