For Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe , signing a peace treaty with Russia while in office is close to the top of his priority list. It will cement his political legacy as the leader who fulfilled the historic mission of solving Japan’s most thorny and psychologically sensitive problem since the end of the second world war – a goal which was beyond the reach of his predecessors. Talks between Moscow and Tokyo on a peace treaty have been at an impasse since the Soviet Union refused to sign one that officially ended the American-led occupation of Japan by the Allies in 1951. While the two sides have normalised bilateral relations, both continue to claim rightful ownership of four islands off the Japanese island of Hokkaido which Soviet forces captured in 1945. Tokyo calls these islands the Northern Territories and Russia calls them the Southern Kurils. Abe and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed in November to accelerate negotiations over the peace treaty, in line with the joint declaration of 1956 that restored diplomatic relations and granted Japan two of the four disputed islands. But the latest developments and the outcome of their meeting last Tuesday show reality is much more complicated. Russia says any deal with Japan over Kuril Islands needs public support The devil is in the details. While Putin had sent signals that he was ready to resolve the issue on the basis of the declaration, the declaration does not specify that Japan will have sovereignty over the two islands. Public reaction in Russia also suggests some nervousness over the issue. A recent protest against the territories’ transfer was held for the first time in front of the Japanese embassy in Moscow, attracting 100 or so picketers including several members of the Russian parliament. Some of the protesters were even temporarily detained by police. There were also demonstrations in the city of Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk – the capital of the province that the islands fall under – where some protesters criticised the Putin administration for going too far by offering to give up the territory. In Japan , subtle changes to public opinion have been observed as well. Tacitly and cautiously, Abe and his administration have begun to send signals that getting two islands back is better than getting none. An opinion poll by Japanese news agency Kyodo in December found that just over half of respondents thought it best to get the two islands first and discuss the others later; 28.6 per cent insisted on the simultaneous return of all the four; 7.3 per cent believed that two would be enough and 4.2 per cent said that Japan should give up its claim to the islands altogether. But a further complication has arisen for Japan. The Russians have started to stress as a non-negotiable part of the deal that Japan recognise the results of the second world war in their entirety, including Moscow’s sovereignty over the four islands. This demand was repeated again on January 14 when both countries’ foreign ministers met. Japan’s plan to pursue peace with Putin and regain lost territory Could Japan negotiate the islands’ transfer on such premises? Hardly. It considers all four to be an inalienable part of its territory, as laid out in a 1855 treaty signed between the two former empires. Thus, as Putin put it after his meeting with Abe on Tuesday – their 25th so far – there is “painstaking work ahead on the formation of conditions for finding a mutually acceptable solution”. For the Russians, these conditions include deeper bilateral ties, especially on the economic front. This leaves Abe with no option but to pursue closer economic and other cooperation with Moscow – a positive development for Russia, especially in the wake of Western sanctions. At the same time, Moscow is unveiling its own conceptual framework for a possible implementation of the 1956 declaration and perplexing Tokyo in the process. Unlike Abe, Putin is in no hurry. He would like to conclude the peace treaty but if it is too difficult, it can wait – forever if needs be. The days when the conclusion of the treaty could be linked with the possibility of a massive inflow of capital from Japan to invigorate the economy of the Russian Far East are gone. This might have been a good idea in the early 1990s, but it is obviously irrelevant now that Russia has instigated market reforms and joined the ranks of the major economic powers. On the other hand, the absence of a peace treaty is no longer a serious impediment to commercially viable deals in energy, vehicle production or other fields. Russia has become one of Japan’s major suppliers of oil and natural gas, for example. Japan tracks record number of Chinese spy planes near its airspace So what is likely to happen next? Both countries’ foreign ministers have been instructed to continue negotiations, with a new round of talks scheduled for February – perhaps on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference in Germany. Abe said he would be wait for Putin to visit Japan in June, when the G20 Summit will be held in Osaka. Tokyo reportedly hopes to reach a broad agreement on the treaty by that date. The two leaders have instructed officials to implement measures for joint economic activities on the four islands and have agreed to expand contacts between their respective defence authorities. Putin has suggested that bilateral trade – that reached US$20 billion between January and November last year – should be increased to US$30 billion. In energy, by far the biggest area of bilateral economic cooperation, new steps are under study with Japanese companies slated to join in a number of upcoming projects for the large-scale extraction and transport of natural gas. Cultural ties and exchanges are also intensifying. Annually, 100,000 Japanese visit Russia with the same number of Russians arriving in Japan. Both sides want to double that figure. In Russia, there has been a boom in Japanese culture – food, films, fashion, manga and anime. While in Japan, people no longer describe Russia as a country that is “close but far” – meaning that it is close geographically, but very difficult to understand and deal with. These closer ties however do not mean there is a tangible solution in sight to finally conclude the peace treaty. Sure, negotiations have entered a new stage but as Welsh singer Tom Jones sings in I Am Counting On You , “there is so far to go”. Ivan Tselichtchev is a professor at the Niigata University of Management in Japan and the author of C hina Versus the West: The Global Power Shift of the 21st Century