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This Week in AsiaOpinion
Ivan Tselichtchev

Asian Angle | The cold war INF nuclear treaty is dead, killed by rise of China and Trump. A global arms race is next

  • The slow death of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty is part of a collapse in cold war era arms control
  • Chaos now beckons, as every country fends for itself. Welcome to the New World Disorder

Reading Time:5 minutes
Why you can trust SCMP
A military exhibition outside St. Petersburg, Russia. File photo
SECRETARY OF State Mike Pompeo has notified Moscow that the US will suspend its adherence to the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) and withdraw from the landmark treaty within six months of February 2, unless Russia proves its full compliance with the pact.

The treaty signed by US president Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev on December 8, 1987, bans production, flight-testing, and possession of all ground-based cruise and ballistic missiles with a range of between 500km and 5,500km.

Currently Washington is accusing Moscow of violating the treaty by testing the ground-launched cruise missile SSC-8, designated as 9M729 in Russia. Moscow denies this, saying the missile has not been developed and tested for the banned range. Last month, a Russian commander, General Mikhail Matveyevsky, announced its maximum flight range as 480km. The US remains unconvinced, citing intelligence data.

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US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Photo: Xinhua
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Photo: Xinhua

To save the treaty, Moscow began bilateral negotiations in Geneva on January 15. These ended in failure. The US side was prepared to discuss nothing but the details of the SSC-8 elimination while Russia pressed for a comprehensive discussion. Obviously, the perception gap cannot be bridged.

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Apparently, US President Donald Trump had made up his mind to abandon the treaty before announcing his intention in a speech last October. The reasons he cited were Russia’s alleged violations and China’s military build-up. Visiting Moscow later that month, his National Security Adviser John Bolton reportedly told his Russian counterparts that the political decision had already been made.
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