Advertisement
Advertisement
Demonstrators demand action at a candle light vigil held in India in the wake of the suicide bombing. Photo: Reuters
Opinion
Rupakjyoti Borah
Rupakjyoti Borah

Pulwama attacks: how India can respond to Pakistan-based terrorists in wake of Kashmir suicide bombing

  • More than 40 India paramilitary police were killed in last week’s attack that was claimed by a Islamist militant group based in Pakistan
  • What options are on the table for New Delhi and the government of Narendra Modi as it considers it response?
As tensions run high between India and Pakistan in the wake of a terror attack on Indian paramilitary personnel in the border state of Jammu and Kashmir, Islamabad has written to the United Nations seeking its intervention to “defuse tensions” with New Delhi.
The attack, on February 14, killed at least 41 troopers of India’s Central Reserve Police Force and has led to a major row between the neighbouring countries, especially after Pakistan-based Islamist militant group Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) claimed responsibility.
It has also laid bare deep rifts in the bilateral relationship, which had started on a bright note under the government of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, when he invited the heads of state of all countries within the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation to his inauguration in May 2014.

Since then, ties have gone progressively downhill, due to a string of attacks by Pakistan-based terror outfits in places like Gurdaspur, Udhampur, Uri, at the Pathankot Air Force Station and elsewhere in India.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Photo: Reuters
However, this latest attack in Pulwama may just be the straw that broke the camel’s back. It has been squarely condemned by countries around the world, many of whom share New Delhi’s sense of outrage.

So, what options does the Indian government have in response? First, there are a range of diplomatic options. New Delhi has already withdrawn Pakistan’s most favoured nation status, which will increase tariffs on Pakistani goods imported into India – valued at about US$488.5 million in 2017-18.

Is terror group JeM pushing India and Pakistan to the brink of war?

Second, military options are also on the table. These could include a surgical or targeted strike against terrorist bases, or an air strike by Indian fighter jets - even from within Indian territory - on selected terrorist targets.
Third, another option is to ratchet up pressure on Pakistan and other countries, such as Iran and Afghanistan, which have also been on the receiving end of attacks by terror outfits operating out of Pakistan.
Meanwhile, in a significant gesture, US National Security Adviser John Bolton has said on the record that Washington supports “India’s right to self-defence” against cross-border terrorism. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also said on Twitter: “We stand with India as it confronts terrorism. Pakistan must not provide safe haven for terrorists to threaten international security.”
Indian soldiers examine the aftermath of the explosion in Pulwama. Photo: Reuters
There are some who opine that India may walk out of the Indus Waters Treaty, which was signed by the two neighbours in September 1960. While this would create problems for Pakistan, it could also backfire on India diplomatically as it would be seen as a case of New Delhi having unilaterally withdrawn from a treaty that was mutually agreed upon. This could also be used by extremist elements within Pakistan to whip up anti-India sentiment.
India is also trying to get Pakistan blacklisted by the Financial Action Task Force – an inter-governmental body established in July 1989 to combat money laundering. Pakistan is already on the organisation’s watch list and would join the likes of North Korea and Iran if it gets blacklisted.

DOMESTIC COMPULSIONS

The attack in Pulwama outraged the entire country, given its horrific nature. However, what New Delhi chooses to do now will depend on a host of factors, both within the country and outside it.

Modi, speaking at an event after the attack, said: “I know there is deep anger, your blood boils looking at what has happened. At this moment, there are expectations and the feelings of a strong response which is quite natural. We have given full freedom to the security forces.”

India goes to the polls in May, putting Modi’s government under pressure to take a decisive stand. In the aftermath of a terror attack in Uri on September 18, 2016, New Delhi ordered surgical strikes against terror launch pads – an operation that later inspired a hugely successful Bollywood film.

FINANCIAL WOES

Pakistan’s economy is in a precarious state – the country is thought to have less than US$8 billion in foreign exchange reserves and recently received promises of US$20 billion in investments during a visit by Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia. However, India’s ties with Saudi Arabia have also seen steady improvement of late, with the two countries planning a US$44 billion refinery in the Indian state of Maharashtra.
That being said, New Delhi’s efforts to get JeM leader Maulana Masood Azhar listed as a global terrorist by the United Nations were delivered a blow when Pakistan and Saudi Arabia issued a joint statement during the crown prince’s visit objecting to the “politicisation” of UN procedures.
An image from Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s official Instagram account. Photo: AFP

Though Saudi Arabia had earlier talked about trying to “de-escalate tensions” between India and Pakistan, it seems to have now moved away from that position, given India’s sensibilities.

The Pulwama attack and the way New Delhi responds may well decide not only the fate of India-Pakistan relations for the foreseeable future, but the way India is perceived in the region and beyond. Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan has already gone on national television to warn India that Islamabad will retaliate if New Delhi takes any military action – something India’s military commanders will have to take into account.

Pakistan to work with India on Kashmir blast investigation

While future terror attacks emanating from Pakistan-based terror groups cannot be ruled out, India would do well to have a standard operating procedure in responding to such provocations, instead of reacting in an ad hoc manner. Meanwhile, as they say, eternal vigilance is the price of peace.

Dr. Rupakjyoti Borah is with the Institute of South Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore.

Connect with us on Facebook and Twitter

Post