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Kashmir
This Week in AsiaGeopolitics
Arif Rafiq

Opinion | India-Pakistan crisis: don’t be fooled, nuclear war is one step closer – and the stalemate has just begun

  • Even if Pakistan acts against terror group Jaish-e Muhammad, Indian rule and brutality in Kashmir mean the causes of this stand-off will fester

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Indian army soldiers near the wreckage of an Indian helicopter. Photo: AP
Make no mistake. The India-Pakistan crisis prompted by the February 14 militant attack on Indian paramilitary forces in Kashmir is far from over.

Even if the two countries have – for now – resisted escalating hostilities following air strikes on each other’s territories, the situation could scarcely be more serious. That two nuclear power states have engaged in military action against one another marks the first step along a path of escalation that – in a worst-case scenario – could result in the use of nuclear weapons.

A quick resolution to the dispute is unlikely. Instead, what we are likely to see is a prolonged stalemate over the coming weeks and perhaps months, as India heads toward general elections in the spring and expects Pakistan to take action against Jaish-e Muhammad (JeM) leader Masood Azhar, whose group claimed responsibility for the suicide bombing.
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Masood Azhar, the chief of Jaish-e-Muhammad. Photo: AFP
Masood Azhar, the chief of Jaish-e-Muhammad. Photo: AFP

On Thursday, after Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan pledged to release a captured Indian air force pilot, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed a domestic audience and projected a willingness to take the conflict further.

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In apparent reference to an Indian air force incursion into Pakistani territory on Tuesday, he said: “After a pilot project is completed, it can be made scalable. A pilot project has been implemented. Now a real [project] must be done. The previous one was [just] practice.”

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