Opinion | India election: Can the country's tradition of diversity withstand a second 'Modi wave'?

After India’s six-week election that ended on Sunday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) looks set to lead a coalition government and rule for a second term.

But unlike 2014 when corruption in high office and the perceived weakness of Manmohan Singh’s United Progressive Alliance became major electoral issues, 2019 was a more personality-driven campaign. Yes, national security was highlighted by the BJP but it was more Modi’s persona as a “strong” leader that mesmerised many voters.

However, this election has also left some among the 900 million eligible voters uneasy about what the next five years will bring. It was seen as one that would define the political trajectory of India – whether the country could remain wedded to the liberal, democratic principle of diversity as enshrined and envisioned in the constitution, or morph into an intolerant and authoritarian Hindu majority nation.

Developments in the last week of voting have given rise to an uneasiness about the “Modi wave” predicted by pollsters. An emphatic majority in the lower house of parliament for the BJP would pave the way for efforts to cast aside India’s commitment to respect and nurture its vast and complex diversity. Related to this is the worry that an ecosystem of fear and sectarian division is being institutionalised by prioritising the less tolerant and insular Hindutva, the politically aggressive form of Hindu nationalism in India.

Most exit polls suggest the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), a coalition of right-leaning parties, will win upwards of 300 seats in the 543-member lower house, but experts caution that in 2004 pollsters predicted a comfortable win for the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led NDA but the final result was different. Will this be repeated on May 23? It is unlikely, at least according to the country’s confident television networks.